PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That's the Christmas moon. You're welcome.

Thats not a moon that's a light at the sewage treatment plant

[Snownerd3000]

WOW triple jinx

[Snownerd3000]

You can tell our shitters were full

[Requiem]

19 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

We do eventually end up getting some legit backdoor cold on this run but all the things that are possibly interesting are quite far out and the margin for error for us to score is really quite small compared to areas north. The ensembles across all the models show a pretty clear north south gradient with this again and the PDX area is very much on the edge. 

Personally I will set my expectations low. I would be a good bit more optimistic for OLM north. 

Oh I'd definitely set my expectations low and I obviously think Olympia north is a safer bet. But overrunning is our classic event-- I don't think we're out of the game yet with that giant natural tunnel to our east. (Also it would shake my faith in the entire system if we had yet another marginal barely close call while areas north get buried )

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Oh I'd definitely set my expectations low and I obviously think Olympia north is a safer bet. But overrunning is our classic event-- I don't think we're out of the game yet with that giant natural tunnel to our east. (Also it would shake my faith in the entire system if we had yet another marginal barely close call while areas north get buried )

never forget port angeles hitting the jackpot with 2ft in 2020

[fubario]

I keep reading "OLM North" or "OLM South". 

Sounds like an ice storm for our area to me. lol

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

I keep reading "OLM North" or "OLM South". 

Sounds like an ice storm for our area to me. lol

I think you guys will be all snow-- if anything the setup models are showing right now that will change in about three hours favors a pretty nasty S. PDX- Centralia ice storm.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Requiem said:

I think you guys will be all snow-- if anything the setup models are showing right now that will change in about three hours favors a pretty nasty S. PDX- Centralia ice storm.

It’s really hard to tell where the transition line will be at this time…I’m not too confident for Everett to Olympia yet. 

[Meatyorologist]

People shouldn't feel bad about rooting for snow at their own location. We all only live once, and there is no moral high ground when watching weather models roll out.

Unless you root against a snowstorm for Tiger. Then it's the ban hammer for you, thank you very much.

[MossMan]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

People shouldn't feel bad about rooting for snow at their own location. We all only live once, and there is no moral high ground when watching weather models roll out.

Unless you root against a snowstorm for Tiger. Then it's the ban hammer for you, thank you very much.

Has TWL posted at all the last few days? Hope he is okay. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

People shouldn't feel bad about rooting for snow at their own location. We all only live once, and there is no moral high ground when watching weather models roll out.

Unless you root against a snowstorm for Tiger. Then it's the ban hammer for you, thank you very much.

While it is looking like it’ll be fun in western WA at the moment (still can change a lot and miss Everett south mostly) there’s been a ton of strong N/S gradient events in recent years. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MossMan said:

Has TWL posted at all the last few days? Hope he is okay. 

Yes, he's posted today in fact! He'll be alright. January has something very, very special in store for him.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I just noticed this…Much like the birds going nuts at my bird feeder, my kids must also know it’s coming. I haven’t said a word to them yet. 
 

not sure what the rest of those scribbles mean, possibly something about the GFS??? 

I’m assuming this considering the time of year 

[GHweatherChris]

Subject to change.

 

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

People shouldn't feel bad about rooting for snow at their own location. We all only live once, and there is no moral high ground when watching weather models roll out.

Unless you root against a snowstorm for Tiger. Then it's the ban hammer for you, thank you very much.

Oh definitely don't begrudge anyone for rooting for snow at their location. I think we all do that. At the same time I understand some of the frustration down here. Last few winters have been pretty rough to track with little fruits of the pattern actually ripening... one year of living through other people's snow photos is fine, two is a bit more aggravating, but 3 and 4 are borderline faith-stripping.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Has TWL posted at all the last few days? Hope he is okay. 

He’s fine. Just a little down about the… well I won’t say it yet. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Subject to change.

 

Did u circle your area

Edited December 14, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Subject to change.

 

You know this isn’t settled yet. That fun dividing line could end up in central

BC at this rate. Or it could trend south to Coburg. 

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Subject to change.

 

I’m in the Fun!

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Did u circle you’re area

Nope, just made sure I was in the cutoff zone for fun.  I thought about just putting a small circle around my area though lol.  That dot is KHQM, they don't get any fun.

Edited December 14, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know this isn’t settled yet. That fun dividing line could end up in central

BC at this rate. Or it could trend south to Coburg. 

Exactly. The event early this month changed very quickly about 24-36 hours before it started. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know this isn’t settled yet. That fun dividing line could end up in central

BC at this rate. Or it could trend south to Coburg. 

Hence why I said subject to change, hell, might even be able to zoom that out to include Northern California, or just put No Fun on the whole map.

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

People shouldn't feel bad about rooting for snow at their own location. We all only live once, and there is no moral high ground when watching weather models roll out.

Unless you root against a snowstorm for Tiger. Then it's the ban hammer for you, thank you very much.

Plus, they have no control over the outcome.

[Blizzard777]

31 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In the meantime, can someone ID this?

In Oculus VR golf game every night!!! Currently Pebble Beach, beautiful weather with waves splashing up against the shore.  Lol, sounds of seagulls as well.  In all seriousness it is nice to see it for real outside  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Oh definitely don't begrudge anyone for rooting for snow at their location. I think we all do that. At the same time I understand some of the frustration down here. Last few winters have been pretty rough to track with little fruits of the pattern actually ripening.

Jesse was spot on earlier. 

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Plus, they have no control over the outcome.

Are you implying that I didn't will those snow days to happen as a kid? I'm certain that I did it. 

[LowerGarfield]

NWS Spokane has a video up... basically telling people about the models being unclear and the probability of three potential scenarios but only through Thursday of next week.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

NWS Spokane has a video up... basically telling people about the models being unclear and the probability of three potential scenarios but only through Thursday of next week.

Why does it feel like NWS Spokane is better than NWS Seattle?

[Snownerd3000]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

People shouldn't feel bad about rooting for snow at their own location. We all only live once, and there is no moral high ground when watching weather models roll out.

Unless you root against a snowstorm for Tiger. Then it's the ban hammer for you, thank you very much.

Thank you for your Ted Talk.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Why does it feel like NWS Spokane is better than NWS Seattle?

They have an easier job

[Snownerd3000]

gulp, this sure changed quick

[Snownerd3000]

PS the Drunk a$$hole is running

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

They have an easier job

NWS Seattle used to communicate to the public more. Would put out stuff like special weather statements several days in advance. Now they just leave the public to look at their apple weather apps thinking its going to be 15 degrees and snowing in a week.

[MossMan]

I know I have given Rich Marriott a bunch of grief over the years, but congrats for 35yrs, that is quite the accomplishment!

https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/celebrating-rich-marriotts-35-year-anniversary-king-5/281-6f5a1a75-b426-48c7-8e62-cfa417e5c682?fbclid=IwAR3rfxbq68ZPDksoNBBDlBU27_FMLnV9fKE_-wNnRyNayxV_hLu3w3vbWto&mibextid=Zxz2cZ

 

[Nov1985]

I'm on an underdesk treadmill with nothing better to do to make time pass. I can share these 18zs if you don't mind. 

 

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Why does it feel like NWS Spokane is better than NWS Seattle?

More experience with winter? I wouldn't even call it hedging because the models aren't in agreement and there's still time...They like to update their weather blog or make videos with plenty of lead time though to educate the public.

[Nov1985]

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

gulp, this sure changed quick

a traditional arctic invasion route

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

More experience with winter? I wouldn't even call it hedging because the models aren't in agreement and there's still time...They like to update their weather blog or make videos with plenty of lead time though to educate the public.

The drop of winter weather advisories and then re-issuing them was comical earlier this winter.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Northwest tip of ridge trending stronger.