PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

EPS still going with a dusting of snow around Puget sound Sunday evening. 

More than a dusting for me…C’MON verify!!! 

[Slushy Inch]

OP finally in line with EPS.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

EPS still going with a dusting of snow around Puget sound Sunday evening. 

i think its important to clarify that that as a mean there could be zero ensemble members actually showing a dusting.  a majority could show nothing and a few extreme amounts would lead to the amounts above too. 

[fubario]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Major event possibly for the northeast next week around Christmas 

seeing as this is the east coast, there's 100% chance this happens.

[Slushy Inch]

Control actually better than OP

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

OP finally in line with EPS.

Control run going crazier now

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

i think its important to clarify that that as a mean there could be zero ensemble members actually showing a dusting.  a majority could show nothing and a few extreme amounts would lead to the amounts above too. 

At this point, I have been watching, and it is really just a cluster showing 1-3 inches the rest nothing.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Major event possibly for the northeast next week around Christmas 

I don’t know why but I get so irritated when the east coast scores. Makes me want to

[Mid Valley Duck]

Nice improvements on the EPS

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

seeing as this is the east coast, there's 100% chance this happens.

Yeah the models will be spot on for them even this far out. Sickening. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Control run going crazier now

It is, would like to EPS copy it

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

i think its important to clarify that that as a mean there could be zero ensemble members actually showing a dusting.  a majority could show nothing and a few extreme amounts would lead to the amounts above too. 

want to add that i wasnt saying you were wrong there - most EPS members in 6z run do show some minor snow. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Nice improvements on the EPS

Big improvements, I have higher confidence WA will get hammered.

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just feels like -53 in Sioux Falls next Friday. Nothing to see here...

If this happens and I don't see you throwing boiling water into the air only to have it fall down as snow, we'll all have to ask "what are you even doing there?"

[Perturbed Member]

33 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Still gets there for WA

 

Yeah significant cold air advection out of the N/NW doesn't work out too great for us. Backdoor + overrunning or bust for us. 

In the believable to semi believable range, this pretty much looks like a Washington event. The overrunning event depicted is over a week away and can't really be taken seriously right now IMO. 

[Deweydog]

Everyone might wanna invest in a tube of Lume for some of the upcoming model runs.

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Control actually better than OP

Almost always is.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

want to add that i wasnt saying you were wrong there - most EPS members in 6z run do show some minor snow. 

Ok, I thought it was understood that Sunday evening was just a chance for minor snow. I can clarify next time.

[Kayla]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pepto party at Kayla’s next Thursday??

Tons of uncertainty right now but looking more and more likely this will be a quick hitter. Would have loved to have seen a region wide Arctic air outbreak.

[Gradient Keeper]

Have my nephew over, so couldn't model ride this morning. Nice high impact event on the Euro after Day 7. Hmmm.... A few other possibilities on other models, so can't rule out some locations seeing snow/frozen precip out of this pattern.

18z GFS in 2 hours 11 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

Control is wild 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Ok, I thought it was understood that Sunday evening was just a chance for minor snow. I can clarify next time.

honestly i had totally written off sunday. completely forgot with all the focus moved to mid week. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like model consensus is starting to come into focus.

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS is definitely improved

[Hawksfan2008]

Right before the overrunning event…the totals on the control will be wild. 

[yellowstone]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS is definitely improved

This and GFS improvements are the real story today. An ice storm 8 days away is nothing but eye candy or, maybe in this case, whatever the opposite of eye candy is. 

[jakerepp]

29 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

packing a few t shirts for some southern oregon golf but unable to walk a single step out of my house without falling down on ice 

Wait, you are going to Bandon and didn't invite me? Rude.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Control is wild 

Puget Sound gets buried 

[Slushy Inch]

Definitely a scenario where the cold gets extended. Maybe even another shift west.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Right before the overrunning event…the totals on the control will be wild. 

-31 into washington??? that is a first. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Washington folks are very lucky on the control run

[Nov1985]

18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just feels like -53 in Sioux Falls next Friday. Nothing to see here...

I noticed that earlier. Queue the east coast media "polar vortex" taglines soon!

 

[Slushy Inch]

Going to need snowmobiles to get around Seattle if control verifies!

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Definitely a scenario where the cold gets extended. Maybe even another shift west.

Atmosphere sloshing around W to E and back like water in a bathtub 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Washington folks are very lucky on the control run

35 inches?? I think that's the highest I've seen so far this year.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ensembles look snowier 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Washington folks are very lucky on the control run

Sure I'll take 3ft of snow heading into Christmas

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

35 inches?? I think that's the highest I've seen so far this year.

Naw the GFS had 39in for Seattle 

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice improvement on the EPS with backdoor cold signal as well.

[Slushy Inch]

Potential for heavy snow is very real for WA