PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to look like places south of Olympia are SOL.

Didn't last night's euro hammer southern Oregon with snow?

Btw, haven't heard from TWL in a bit.  Has anyone else?

 

[Christensen87]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

12z eight fitties

 

Overrunning events are so depressing. Still looks like an east wind event will occur at some point though. 

[TT-SEA]

Major ice storm on the 12Z GFS...

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

Overrunning events are so depressing. 

They can be much different with arctic air parked at the border. Just the backwash of onshore flow can drop daytime temps below freezing in the sound this time of year. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GFS moved towards the Euro in terms of overall progression. The one big difference is everything is shifted 200ish miles to the north. One very nice change is the western side of the block and the trough to its SW. The block is healthier and continuing to trend that direction and the trough is trending weaker. This should bode well if it continues to do so.

[Nov1985]

A gratuitous GFS snow map.

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1996 was just like this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

The GFS moved towards the Euro in terms of overall progression. The one big difference is everything is shifted 200ish miles to the north. One very nice change is the western side of the block and the trough to its SW. The block is healthier and continuing to trend that direction and the trough is trending weaker. This should bode well if it continues to do so.

Still need a lot of improvements for millersburg. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Next week is going to be crazy for some places that is for sure.

[Christensen87]

I smell January 2012. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still need a lot of improvements for millersburg. 

I love an inch of sleet and an inch of freezing rain 

[TT-SEA]

All the models seem to have the same general solution for next week... compromise is sneaking up on us.  

[Blizzard777]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yikes…..I’ll just take some tinker toys

[SnarkyGoblin]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Major ice storm on the 12Z GFS...

 

Michael Snyder has been mentioning ice in his videos with this kind of cold air setup.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

I smell January 2012. 

Yeah... it really feels more and more like January 2012.  

[Blizzard777]

I don’t need this mess happening at home while I travel south!!!  Ugh  

[TT-SEA]

GEM also shows an ice storm with the overrunning event on Thursday.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I will say it over and over but when we have a potent arctic high sliding down the bc coast there is going to be a bunch of crazy stuff happen that no model will pick up on. It is a very exciting pattern. 

[RentonHill]

GEFS clear move towards this solution so far

[SnarkyGoblin]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

1996 was just like this. 

My first strong memory of significant weather.

[TT-SEA]

Amazingly... the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF are now consistently showing a massive overrunning event for next Thursday.   That is pretty impressive for being 8 days out.  

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Amazingly... the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF are now consistently showing a massive overrunning event for next Thursday.   That is pretty impressive for being 8 days out.  

Some of them don’t really have much of anything to overrun unfortunately

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm feeling good about ECMWF solution. GFS still looks to be figuring out cold

[Mid Valley Duck]

The area in black is the key area to watch in the day 4 range. The Euro has kept this area free of left over junk from the Kona low, while the others keep some remenants around. The remenants pinch off the block on both sides and prevents the block from continuing to help carve out our arctic trough. Whatever gets decided in this area will have big impacts moving forward. The GFS has been lessening/weakening this area which should lead to more favorable solutions.
 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GEM also shows an ice storm with the overrunning event on Thursday.  

This gives me flashbacks of 2012. We didn’t have power for 3-5 days and we didn’t have a generator. Double up on coats!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Some of them don’t really have much of anything to overrun unfortunately

That is the big issue yet to be resolved.   But from Olympia northward the odds of wintry precip increase dramatically in this situation.  

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Amazingly... the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF are now consistently showing a massive overrunning event for next Thursday.   That is pretty impressive for being 8 days out.  

The event start is really like 5 days out on ECMWF. The unusually cold 850Ts for the region slide over the border early Monday morning on that model. The 6z 18z ECMWF runs start to come into play with today's 18z run. (The 6z was a touch earlier with upper level cold air). 

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I will say it over and over but when we have a potent arctic high sliding down the bc coast there is going to be a bunch of crazy stuff happen that no model will pick up on. It is a very exciting pattern. 

Definitely exciting pattern and I’m still weighing in on that arctic plunge drawing from past experiences.  They do crazy stuff !!!  
 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The event start is really like 5 days out on ECMWF. The unusually cold 850Ts for the region slide over the border early Monday morning on that model. The 6z 18z ECMWF runs start to come into play with today's 18z run. (The 6z was a touch earlier with upper level cold air). 

Once the cold air gets into place... a big overrunning event becomes inevitable.   And the all models agree the cold air gets into place on Tuesday.    Except for the worthless ICON.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My guess is someplace between Portland and Bellingham will have the largest overrunning event since 1996 next week.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At this point Christmas looks like a slushy mess and 48 degrees.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I also Can't imagine the euro Not moving towards the gfs. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

UKMET is great for Olympia north

[Phishy Wx]

looking even like less cold, more snow on this side too.  not that I'm ungrateful for snow but was hoping to go below -1 since it's the coldest it's been here in the 5 winters we've been around

[Omegaraptor]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to look like places south of Olympia are SOL.

Oh well. Sunriver was kind of due for a 40 degree bare ground late December anyway.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

UKMET is great for Olympia north

Geez 

[Phishy Wx]

euro gunna make everyone be like dang, why I'm I doubting you.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Starting to get into meso model range.

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

UKMET is great for Olympia north

Can you post it please