PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Fircrest]

29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

You will. I already turned to snow north of Federal Way

Not sure about that.  Hope so, but it's still raining and 37 with a dewpoint of 33.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

I don’t want to talk about it  

Don't trust cookie cutter forecasts like that.

[Cloud]

Just got home from East Renton Highlands (around 7), drove though SEA, then home. I can report nary a drop of anything! 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea same here. Radar says it should be snowing. Hope the magic starts 

A much heavier band is getting close.  I haven't had a thing yet.

[Front Ranger]

Brinnon/Quilcene area might end up being the big winner tonight.

Along with birthday boy, of course.

[SnowPlz]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Don't trust cookie cutter forecasts like that.

I know, the 32 degrees and pissing rain just struck me as funny 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Just got home from East Renton Highlands (around 7), drove though SEA, then home. I can report nary a drop of anything! 

Snowing at SEA now, you just missed it!

[Weiner Warrior]

[bainbridgekid]

mPING report of snow in Downtown Seattle. Great sign.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Snowing at SEA now, you just missed it!

Light flurries now at home as well!

[Skier B]

6 minutes ago, andrewr said:

All snow in Burien, but too warm to stick.

Snowing hard and sticking here on top of 160th.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Time to go measure the board. This is 1 hr snow fall. Stand by.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, Skier B said:

Snowing hard and sticking here on top of 160th.

Where is 160th? 

[RentonHill]

Snow tunnel from Okanogan 1969. Not there yet over there but on their way!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS says snow will rapidly expand across King County soon.

 

[andrewr]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Where is 160th? 

Near Normandy Park I think

[Skier B]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Where is 160th? 

One of the higher spots in Burien.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS says snow will rapidly expand across King County soon.

 

We are getting wet flakes mixing in. It would be real hard getting sticking snow even if it does switch over. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS says snow will rapidly expand across King County soon.

 

I’ve also got something that’s rapidly expanding

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snow is starting to pick up!

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

I’ve also got something that’s rapidly expanding

Look at Vancouver Island, looks like a sword fight.

[Cloud]

Picking up in intensity... glad to see a straight to snow here. 

[Seattle]

36/26 at SEA with light snow. That’s a great sign all around. Plenty of room to  fall to freezing and light precip is falling as snow 

[jakerepp]

Oh my gosh give us the measurement already @MR.SNOWMIZER

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

about 1.5 in one hour. 3 today ao far. 10 inches total depth on ground.

[Doinko]

GFS thinks we'll be cold enough

 

[Doinko]

The GFS nails us on Sunday

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Oh my gosh give us the measurement already @MR.SNOWMIZER

Having issues with internet signal tonight.  Can't load pic on cell service. 

[jakerepp]

Mother in law says heavy snow in Edmonds now. 

Radar showed precip overhead for a while before this but she said it was dry.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

The GFS nails us on Sunday

 

Email Mark that frame and tell me what he says.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[SnowySeeker50]

Snow has intensified. Currently 34 degrees, dp 30.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Having issues with internet signal tonight.  Can't load pic on cell service. 

Just giving you a hard time

[Cloud]

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

The GFS nails us on Sunday

 

Temperatures a bit colder too for the system Sunday into Sunday night PDX metro 30-32

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

The GFS nails us on Sunday

 

Doubt it will be that much, but the way the situation is evolving is a classic sneaky off-shore setup for Portland. As long as you can get the precip.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

The GFS nails us on Sunday

 

The GFS gives the Portland area a pretty legit snowstorm just 48 hours from now and I don’t even believe it. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Temperatures a bit colder too for the system Sunday into Sunday night PDX metro 30-32

I would be very happy if that verified

[KingstonWX]

33 and still nothing but drizzle here, but looks like this heavier band is the one causing everyone to turn over to snow, so I guess we shall see when it arrives. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Terreboner]

GFS = Genuine Fake Snow

[TT-SEA]

Amazing difference between the GFS and ECMWF for Sunday... GFS is just insistent on hitting Portland on every run.   No wavering.   ECMWF has never shown that scenario.

[TacomaWx]

Wow that was fast getting close to changing over to snow all the sudden. Getting bursts of big flakes on and off. It’s gonna try to do it. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Really coming down here. Big flakes and accumulating everywhere.

[Doinko]

NAM and RDPS do give the west metro area some snow Sunday too

[HoodCanalBridge]

Rain until about 15 minutes ago when it switched to a rain/snow mix up near the northern portion of the canal.   Currently having periods of snow transitioning back and forth to rain/snow mix. 

[Front Ranger]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Amazing difference between the GFS and ECMWF for Sunday... GFS is just insistent on hitting Portland on every run.   No wavering.   ECMWF has never shown that scenario.

Just as this pattern is hell for the NWS, it's super tricky for the models. Look how much things have changed just in the past 12 hours for what they're showing for the Puget Sound.

Low level, legit cold is the hardest for them to deal with. Always take the Euro over GFS, but in cases like this I'm not sure it's that much better for precip type.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Also, the temp has fallen from 38 to 33, while the dp has stayed at 32.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Doubt it will be that much, but the way the situation is evolving is a classic sneaky off-shore setup for Portland. As long as you can get the precip.

NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling.

Edited December 3, 2022 by BLI snowman