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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

You guys in Western Washington kind of look like you are getting an indirect hit from a hurricane and are just getting the outer bands.  Until it wobbles and moves away, perhaps to make your acquaintance again in 36 hours.

Good point... the Sunday event is actually the same system.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think you would have to be close to the gorge to have much of a shot.

Ridgefield is definitely close enough to the gorge to benefit from it. It will likely come down more to timing and precip rates on Sunday than gorge outflow exposure, anyways. It will be tough to get enough to wet bulb down to 32 during the daytime with the airmass we'll have ,but anyone north of about Woodburn appears to have a shot if something steadier does develop earlier in the day or again perhaps later in the evening. 18z NAM and Euro were definitely both a step back, though.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Ridgefield is definitely close enough to the gorge to benefit from it. It will likely come down more to timing and precip rates on Sunday than gorge outflow exposure, anyways. It will be tough to get enough to wet bulb down to 32 during the daytime with the airmass we'll have ,but anyone north of about Woodburn appears to have a shot if something steadier does develop earlier in the day or again perhaps later in the evening. 18z NAM and Euro were definitely both a step back, though.

How does upper elevations (400-600feet) of Camas/Washougel do in winter for snow? Briefly looked their for a home and had thoughts about it. 

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Would anyone care to explain the mechanics behind Bellingham getting skunked snow-wise on tuesday night? I've been thinking about it all week but don't really have the knowledge or resources to figure out why it went down that way lol. 

Was it a matter of the warm moist air scouring out cold fraser outflow too quickly? Low placement? Were both involved? There was plenty of moisture that night but the temp just kept rising as the day went on. 

Just want to get an idea of what to look out for in the future. 

Thank you,

-a fellow weenie

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

And the moisture is gone.....

What’s it been doing there? All rain so far? Looks like just a lull out there between pulses. Overall the radar looks juicy.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just now, Olive1010 said:

is it actually possible we could get 2 inches on sunday morning

Screenshot 2022-12-02 5.56.30 PM.png

Well the model shows it as a solution so yeah it's *theoretically* possible 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

00Z 3KM NAM is juiciest yet with QPF in Puget Sound with 0.5" QPF. However, it takes a few hours before the switchover from rain to snow so a lot of this does not fall as snow. 

That models has flip flopped back and forth between wet and dry East of Puget Sound but you’re definitely right. 00z is very moist.

AC44F895-0B41-4E2D-92FF-4FC70EE896EB.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Ended up with 36/25 here today with 0.2" of snow with those flurries this morning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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40 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ll be out of the country December 27- January 7 so expecting a repeat.

Oh boy.   That's exactly what happened to Brennan in December 1996.  He is still having nightmares about that one.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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27 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

How does upper elevations (400-600feet) of Camas/Washougel do in winter for snow? Briefly looked their for a home and had thoughts about it. 

Pretty good, generally do better than most of the area in onshore flow of course and also in shallower outflow events. Can also see a lot more freezing rain if you're within 2-3 miles of the river.

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34 in Shelton and 33 in Bremerton but both still reporting rain. Not the greatest sign but could change with heavier precip. Temps will be close tonight.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, mtep said:

Would anyone care to explain the mechanics behind Bellingham getting skunked snow-wise on tuesday night? I've been thinking about it all week but don't really have the knowledge or resources to figure out why it went down that way lol. 

Was it a matter of the warm moist air scouring out cold fraser outflow too quickly? Low placement? Were both involved? There was plenty of moisture that night but the temp just kept rising as the day went on. 

Just want to get an idea of what to look out for in the future. 

Thank you,

-a fellow weenie

It was probably the surface pressure gradient having too much of a southerly component to it.  Once the Fraser outflow gets cut off Bellingham skyrockets easily.  Then of course the next day the moisture was too far south.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Shelton reporting rain and 34. Not a great sign, typically, but then Tacoma/Seattle are closer to the cold air source with colder DPs going in...gonna be a close call.

Not true.  Cold air damming should be helping Shelton a whole lot more.  Probably just need the entire column to cool still.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Shelton reporting rain and 34. Not a great sign, typically, but then Tacoma/Seattle are closer to the cold air source with colder DPs going in...gonna be a close call.

Yeah it's strange but the snow line is very close to Shelton.  I'd expect them to switch over soon.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

34 in Shelton and 33 in Bremerton but both still reporting rain. Not the greatest sign but could change with heavier precip. Temps will be close tonight.

It's snow at bremerton Airport. Girlfriend just drove by there. That's where the bremerton station is.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

34 in Shelton and 33 in Bremerton but both still reporting rain. Not the greatest sign but could change with heavier precip. Temps will be close tonight.

It is very cold in the Kittitas Valley which bodes well for the east winds to get quite cold later.  Evaporative cooling could get me into freezing rain territory if it doesn't snow.  Places NW of here and the Kitsap Pen should get snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, mtep said:

Would anyone care to explain the mechanics behind Bellingham getting skunked snow-wise on tuesday night? I've been thinking about it all week but don't really have the knowledge or resources to figure out why it went down that way lol. 

Was it a matter of the warm moist air scouring out cold fraser outflow too quickly? Low placement? Were both involved? There was plenty of moisture that night but the temp just kept rising as the day went on. 

Just want to get an idea of what to look out for in the future. 

Thank you,

-a fellow weenie

Low placement was a big factor. With the low centered rather closely to your NW over northern Vancouver Island upon its approach, you were at an unfortunate trajectory to really maximize the downsloping southeasterlies off of the Chuckanuts that Bellingham proper is extremely prone to. It was a relatively shallow wind field though, so Lynden and places north of Pole Road never scoured out until the low had passed.

I think the same localized downslope warming occurred in some other parts of NW WA near the Cascades, including Winterdog's area, while other places a little further west benefitted from the ESE flow. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m hoping that east king county has better luck. DPs in the 20s here. 

There will probably be a swath of the area that has just enough access to cold offshore flow and heavy enough precip to score a few inches. Wouldn't be surprised if Jim is in that area tonight, perhaps even SEA.

Everywhere else will probably mainly see mixed precip and little accumulation.

A forum for the end of the world.

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