PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[bainbridgekid]

Just drove from Everett to Downtown Seattle.

It snowed the entire way and was sticking on the trees along I-5 all the way through downtown but isn’t sticking at sea level near the stadiums. Sticking snow level must be literally like 50-100 feet right now.

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Slipped and fell on my a** trying to pull my finance’s car into the garage. Heavy snow rn 

Almost did that 15 minutes ago walking down my wood stairs to get the mail. I got so lucky!  Hope your alright…..those type of slips hurt bad! 

[BurienSnowGlobe]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If you look at the region wide UW radar loop you can see a burst of heavier precip moving through from Seattle down to Tacoma and Puyallup.  

Once that goes through you think back to rain for many? Or will it help keep temps down?

[Perturbed Member]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I'm *hoping* this means the GFS is more on the money regarding Sunday for down here, but at the same time I know that's not how it works...

00z GFS thinks PDX will be 32F with a dp of 19F with east winds gusting to ~20 mph at 5 AM Sunday right as precip is arriving. As nice as that would be, the GFS will almost certainly bust on the temps. Just need it to be mostly right on the precip. It can be a decent bit warmer than what the GFS currently shows and still snow.

[Christensen87]

This is awesome! And no end in sight on the radar. What a fun surprise. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you look at the region wide UW radar loop you can see a burst of heavier precip moving through from Seattle down to Tacoma and Puyallup.  

Heavy snow rn… might end up with 4-5 inches possibly…… maybe I’m just optimistic 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, BurienSnowGlobe said:

Once that goes through you think back to rain for many? Or will it help keep temps down?

No clue.   

If its related to precip intensity then maybe.    This is a technically a warm frontal feature... the ECMWF shows 925 temps rising overnight. 

 

[Weiner Warrior]

10 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Yeah this definitely has over performance written all over it for a lot of people. Radar looks awesome right now.

Low looks like it's not moving to fast. 

[Cloud]

Took its sweet azz time but finally switched to snow here and accumulating. Still don’t really expect much. 

[BurienSnowGlobe]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No clue.   

If its related to precip intensity then maybe.    This is a technically a warm frontal feature... the ECMWF shows 925 temps rising overnight. 

 

Thanks for the insights! 

[snow_wizard]

I'm totally amazed!  It's actually snowing pretty hard and sticking now.  These situations almost never work out here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Low looks like it's not moving to fast. 

The back edge of precip is already north of Portland moving north. It will eject back out to sea in a different manner then we are used to seeing. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you look at the region wide UW radar loop you can see a burst of heavier precip moving through from Seattle down to Tacoma and Puyallup.  

Coming down pretty heavy now in south hill. Seems to have switched to all snow.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm totally amazed!  It's actually snowing pretty hard and sticking now.  These situations almost never work out here.

How much u got so far?

[snow_wizard]

The temp is down to 32.9 now as the evaporative cooling works its magic.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

Coming down pretty heavy now in south hill. Seems to have switched to all snow.

Did it just switch in South Hill?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Almost 7 inches for the day so far with 13 on the ground.

[Skagit Weather]

25 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I really hope you get some accumulation tonight. I think your area is one of the few that has done as bad or worse than this area. You're doing better than here so far, in spite of continuous moderate radar returns overhead nothing measurable has reached the ground yet, still 38F with a SE breeze. Tonight seems like the last decent chance around here before the pattern resets and who knows when the next opportunity will come.

Thanks! I hope you pick up something tonight as well! It's not like you've gotten buried by snow and I really appreciate the sentiment. Fortunately it's early in the winter and I'm not too worried about it. If this was happening in February I'm sure I'd be anxious, but for all I know this is only the first of many chances throughout the season.

The good news is it's down to 37F and there are more flakes than drops currently so we're trending in the right direction!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much u got so far?

About a quarter inch, but it just got really heavy.  Actually sticking to the road.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Wow actually really surprised by this. Too far north for PDX again.

[Requiem]

Corbett gusting to 53 

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Thinking it will be an outlier like 12z was. I hope so! C'MON EPS!

EPS looks like its trending towards the ECMWF... and don't look at the control run.     

[Cloud]

[snow_wizard]

This has got to be one of the strangest snow weeks I've ever seen.  Just so many different scenarios in such a short time.

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Did it just switch in South Hill?

Yeah seems like it's trying to

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Almost 7 inches for the day so far with 13 on the ground.

Amazing!

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS looks like its trending towards the ECMWF... and don't look at the control run.     

It's over.

[Perturbed Member]

Looking at the traffic cams around Seattle. This looks like it is going pretty darn well up there. Radar looks good too. Seems like potentially hours more of moderate snow up there for some. 

A bit too warm in some parts of the city, should be interesting if the heavier precip coming in the next 1-3 hours helps out with that. 

[runninthruda206]

FINALLY STICKING! !!

[TacomaWx]

We’re in a “lull” in the precip and have been for the last 20 minutes but it’s still coming down hard. Pretty good fetch of precip. 

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, thickhog said:

Betting against King Euro w/ your snow goggles on leads to disappointment.

I live in Washington county, snow goggles aren't legal here and neither is snow.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

We’re in a “lull” in the precip and have been for the last 20 minutes but it’s still coming down hard. Pretty good fetch of precip. 

That is a good sign for Seattle later.

[snow_wizard]

Just dumping here now.  East wind really working some magic!

[BurienSnowGlobe]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Down the hill from you and no sticking yet

[The Blob]

Windy here

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It's over.

Oh brother.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Thanks! I hope you pick up something tonight as well! It's not like you've gotten buried by snow and I really appreciate the sentiment. Fortunately it's early in the winter and I'm not too worried about it. If this was happening in February I'm sure I'd be anxious, but for all I know this is only the first of many chances throughout the season.

The good news is it's down to 37F and there are more flakes than drops currently so we're trending in the right direction!

Seems like you're on the east side of the band that's stretched out to here. The wind has finally switched to the ENE here and the temperature is dropping. It's almost impossible to see snow accumulations here without a northerly wind component, it's a weird quirk of this microclimate. Not seeing any flakes yet, but it's down to 35F. I'm seeing some heavy radar returns over there, you'll probably be all snow soon.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just dumping here now.  East wind really working some magic!

I think its just precip intensity related... its 37 in North Bend.    The east wind is not cold out here.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Precip has lightened up here, but still frozen. Temp and dewpoint remain steady at 33 each.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It's over.

Could be a pattern reset coming... might set us up again later in the month.  

[Jamalm]

Coming down hard in the Lakeland hills of Auburn

[Perturbed Member]

Another update from Mark:

"

Temperatures will be very marginal for snow to stick Sunday morning, and we really won’t have a good handle on that until we see how warm/cold the airmass is east of us later tomorrow. So will it be cold enough? We don’t know yet. And how much precipitation will fall? Right now models are having real trouble and in some disagreement. 

 

 

I don’t see a setup for a snowstorm or widespread sticking snow Sunday morning, but watching it closely!

At the least, we should see mixed showers Sunday morning and midday

At most, part of the metro area gets sticking snow the first few hours or Sunday, but temperatures remain at/above freezing

Don’t cancel any plans, because even if we do get a brief morning snowfall AND it sticks to roads in some areas (worst case scenario), it would melt quickly midday & PM

"

 

[SnowySeeker50]

About half inch on roads and an inch on all other surfaces so far. Coming down good.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its just precip intensity related... its 37 in North Bend.    The east wind is not cold out here.

How are the dewpoints? Drier air filtering through at the lower levels could be helping areas further west.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Jamalm said:

Coming down hard in the Lakeland hills of Auburn

That is absolutely crazy!    Pretty rare for it to be dumping snow in Auburn with nothing falling in my area.   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

How are the dewpoints? Drier air filtering through at the lower levels could be helping areas further west.

Dewpoint is 31.5 in North Bend.

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just dumping here now.  East wind really working some magic!

Same this is amazing 

[Margaritaville]

Nice to see we'll be on the upper end of little to no accumulation 

[TacomaWx]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This has got to be one of the strangest snow weeks I've ever seen.  Just so many different scenarios in such a short time.

Seems very much like a warmer poor man’s version of December 2021. We’re about to hit our 5th consecutive day with measurable snow here…very similar to 2021 in how there were many small snows that added up over time.