PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Seattle]

Rain/snow mix here. Probably only 30/70 snow, precipitation is actually fairly moderate so hopefully it’ll transition to snow soon.

[HoodCanalBridge]

1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

Oh and pro-tip: You can get a house on a 100% private lake that you own over here for way cheaper than you can for the price of a house on the sound. I highly recommend it 

My wife and I live across the street from the canal in our neighborhood with barely a sliver of a view.   It's definitely a goal to be on the water some day!   You can get on the canal quite a bit cheaper once you cross the bridge.  As my wealthy retired neighbor across the street says, they're not really building much more water front!  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Oh yeah, the Washington County Donut Hole extends into Clackamas County too.

At least it's better than Canby and Aurora.

Does the donut hole extend up to Beaverton/Hillsboro and here?

[snow_wizard]

Starting out as fairly dry snow here.  We'll see if it stays snow or not.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The euro is showing very different outcomes every single run. The other models are seeming to jump onto the GFS bandwagon in terms of precip at least. The new GEM and RGEM both have 0.50 in qpf for PDX and the NAM is pretty wet too. 

Sunday’s system is a game time decision on just about every level with a pretty marginal upside. Surface temps at best will probably be in 33-34 range at the zenith of the event within whatever deformation bullseye.

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Can someone post a map?

 

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Oh yeah, the Washington County Donut Hole extends into Clackamas County too.

At least it's better than Canby and Aurora.

My dad lives off of Beaver Creek rd., almost smack dab between Clarkes and the Meadowbrook store.  Almost 800' ASL and he gets rain a lot when it's snowing all around him.  He does get some good snows though with CAA that is marginal for PDX.  But, man, those south winds are a killer on that side of town (SE).

[Perturbed Member]

QPF for the Sunday system. GFS, GEM, RGEM, NAM. Some consensus starting to form here. Hopefully we can get the 00z Euro on board. If the precip really will be that solid, I'm not worried about the temps. It won't be impressively cold but I think this airmass gets the job done given steady moderate precip. 

 

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

7 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

When Bainbridge does get snow, there is much more accumulation just a quarter mile uphill from my place. Every time. In 2022 it was a 5 minute walk separating 2 and 5 inches of snow on the ground. 

That's because you gain in elevation and move away from the water.

[bainbridgekid]

Light flurries just started here. Radar’s looking good and the WRF gives the hills between Northgate and Everett 3-4” tonight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I spent 10 years dreaming of living over here and looking at houses, while living in Renton, Sammamish, and then Arlington/Trafton area. Arlington/Trafton was the best area I've ever lived in when it comes to snow, but it's just not even remotely close to comparing to all the benefits of living over here. 

Beautiful area. If I had to pick a spot on the water it would be for sure somewhere around seabeck.  Million dollar view. Problem is most everything is out of my price range. But you can be on the water and still do good with snow events. 

[SnowPlz]

Just now, Poulsbo Snowman said:

That's because you gain in elevation and move away from the water.

I know. The effect is extreme here though. I’ve lived by the water most of my life in different areas. And it’s less than 100 feet of elevation gain 

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is pretty wet and has lower 925mb temps than previous runs.  Intriguing.

[Terreboner]

Just now, SnowPlz said:

I know. The effect is extreme here though. I’ve lived by the water most of my life in different areas. And it’s less than 100 feet of elevation gain 

Lake Stevens is the same way.  Right on the lake is night and day compared to 100' above the lake to the east.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

 

The beat rolls on.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

QPF for the Sunday system. GFS, GEM, RGEM, NAM. Some consensus starting to form here. Hopefully we can get the 00z Euro on board. If the precip really will be that solid, I'm not worried about the temps. It won't be impressively cold but I think this airmass gets the job done given steady moderate precip. 

 

 

Great post. That's much better agreement.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Just now, SnowPlz said:

I know. The effect is extreme here though. I’ve lived by the water most of my life in different areas. And it’s less than 100 feet of elevation gain 

 

1 minute ago, SnowPlz said:

I know. The effect is extreme here though. I’ve lived by the water most of my life in different areas. And it’s less than 100 feet of elevation gain 

Doesn't take much around here.  I have the same issues around my home.

[KingstonWX]

4 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

My wife and I live across the street from the canal in our neighborhood with barely a sliver of a view.   It's definitely a goal to be on the water some day!   You can get on the canal quite a bit cheaper once you cross the bridge.  As my wealthy retired neighbor across the street says, they're not really building much more water front!  

I have thought about Chimacum area waterfront, Shine, etc. over there, but I just can't replicate what I have here, and I bought in 2012 so I got a smokin deal. Hard to get anything even remotely comparable now, even for the massive haul I'd get if I sold. I think I'd need to move to Eastern WA or somewhere over on the OlyPen to really being able to cash out.

[GHweatherChris]

Well, temp is down to 33 here now and mostly wet tiny snowflakes now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just pounding here. This is already a good event and we still have a solid 6-8 hrs of precip left.

[RCola]

Rain/snow mix in Belltown. I'm hoping Mother Nature delivers here, since we were left behind the last two rounds. It's going to be close temperature wise though 35 F / 30 F. 

[Randyc321]

29 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

33 and still nothing but drizzle here, but looks like this heavier band is the one causing everyone to turn over to snow, so I guess we shall see when it arrives. 

Somehow I have dropped to 35 and have a real thick slushy substance falling.   Who knows, it may happen.  It's dumping, that's for sure.

[KingstonWX]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Beautiful area. If I had to pick a spot on the water it would be for sure somewhere around seabeck.  Million dollar view. Problem is most everything is out of my price range. But you can be on the water and still do good with snow events. 

I actually love Seabeck. The water and mountain views are amazing, and the snow is amazing, but the tweakers are horrendous. Plus it has the same problem Woodinville does, where it just stays way too dark in a lot of places and gets kinda depressing. Also, Smokin' Robinsons closed and moved to McClouds in Bremerton, so that's almost a deal breaker.

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sunday’s system is a game time decision on just about every level with a pretty marginal upside. Surface temps at best will probably be in 33-34 range at the zenith of the event within whatever deformation bullseye.

Euro shows DPs in the teens and temps in the mid 30s early Sunday AM at PDX. You don't think those numbers will materialize?

It seems like that airmass with steady precip should get it done. IMO the question is more about if the precip materializes more than the airmass.

[bainbridgekid]

12 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

When Bainbridge does get snow, there is much more accumulation just a quarter mile uphill from my place. Every time. In 2022 it was a 5 minute walk separating 2 and 5 inches of snow on the ground. 

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

[TacomaWx]

35 DP 33 it’s almost full snow! 

[SnowPlz]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

That’s what I’m saying. And it varies wildly all over the island 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I actually love Seabeck. The water views are amazing, and the snow is amazing, but the tweakers are horrendous. Plus it has the same problem Woodinville does, where it just stays way too dark in a lot of places and gets kinda depressing. Also, Smokin' Robinsons closed and moved to McClouds in Bremerton, so that's almost a deal breaker.

Tweakers are everywhere.  It's getting really bad all over the place.

[KingstonWX]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

North Kitsap is the same way. I have barely had more than a trace on the ground throughout all these recent events, but my kids have been out of school for 2 days because the entire district is closed. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

To be fair, that winter had an extreme, atypical elevation gradient everywhere, though. 

[KingstonWX]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Tweakers are everywhere.  It's getting really bad all over the place.

Yes they are, but their concentration is not. You'd be hard pressed to see many tweakers in Bainbridge or in the nice areas of Kingston, outside of maybe some high school kids experimenting or some weirdos camping in the woods. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

We get so much snow out here with a temp between 30-32.    Probably the majority of our snow.    My relatives in Minnesota don't believe me.    

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

A robust breeze has started here, from the east I think. I think it’s eating some of the precip. What snow is falling is tiny. 33/32dp still.

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We get so much snow out here with a temp between 30-32.    Probably the majority of our snow.    My relatives in Minnesota don't believe me.    

Snoqualmie Pass probably does too. It’s amazing how many 32 degree snowstorms they get just barely holding on with the East wind. 

[RayRay]

Kitsap Mason county line:

 

 

[TT-SEA]

What is going on with the GFS?   This is a snow set up?    Nothing makes sense any more.  

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Euro shows DPs in the teens and temps in the mid 30s early Sunday AM at PDX. You don't think those numbers will materialize?

It seems like that airmass with steady precip should get it done. IMO the question is more about if the precip materializes more than the airmass.

I suspect it’s a little overzealous, but not ridiculous. The ambient temp might be close, but I’m skeptical we’ll see DP’s verify that low, especially giving any kind of nod to the wetter models.

It’s a unique setup, although it has some similarities to 1/3/16. That event featured a similar, somewhat nebulous frontogenic entity with lowering heights/thicknesses/850mb temps from south to north. Of course that event had a significantly colder low level seed air mass.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Margaritaville]

Hungry deer

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

What is going on with the GFS?   This is a snow set up?    Nothing makes sense any more.  

They gave the keys to Jim!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SouthHillFrosty]

Puking snow rn 

[snow_wizard]

GFS is just nothing but cold for a long time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We get so much snow out here with a temp between 30-32.    Probably the majority of our snow.    My relatives in Minnesota don't believe me.    

The pass gets a bunch at those temps. Steven's gets a bunch 28-30. Most of my snow at cabin falls between 15-20 temps. The powder there is amazing.  I normally use my leaf blower on the deck after a snowfall.

[SnowySeeker50]

Coming down pretty good with an image from an intersection cam. Trace coating on grass/cars.

[KingstonWX]

Looks like it's finally changing over to all snow here. Still a bit of rain mixed in, but it's reducing by the second. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Mostly rain in Fremont.  I'm skeptical.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

That stands as the most elevation dependent winter I've ever seen.  It was pretty frustrating for many.