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12/8 - 12/9 "I-80 Corridor Snow Event"

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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OttumwaSnomow
OttumwaSnomow

Well, we sent a 2 truck  plow crew to do some plowing in nw Iowa, north west of Fort Dodge.   They tell me repeated  lightning  and thundersnow!   Here its 38F and a few showers.  

Bryan1117
Bryan1117

Yet another system that "underperformed" here... storm rainfall total of 0.09" with no icing/ no snow at all.  The drought and this lousy pattern wins again. 

CentralNebWeather
CentralNebWeather

No school here, just announced. Freezing drizzle has made it extremely slick. 

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted

Already some businesses and clinics are going with late starts.  No schools listed yet, but I know our supt. will be out early in the morning.  My guess is we go with a 10 AM start then see the extent of the ice.  Some of the latest models show the ice starting around sunrise and lasting until early afternoon.  If that is the case, there will be a lot of closings in the area.

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Hoosier Rising Star

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Here's a NAM forecast sounding from northeastern IL on Friday.  Nice lift with good omega present in the region of steep lapse rates aloft, and this also resides in the DGZ.  I think it's going to rip for a while, especially out around O'Hare and northward but perhaps even south of there.

 

375742525_2022120718_NAM_045_42.18-87.92_severe_ml.thumb.png.952487d0e1b7430654ade364212b8ac6.png

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hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

Winter Weather Advisory issued for my area, among others, for tomorrow night. Currently calling for 2-4 inches with up to a tenth inch of ice. 

Sucks I'm going to miss it but hopefully it'll stay in that lower range so I'll still be able to fly back home Friday afternoon and enjoy the newly fallen snow.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

recent GFS spits out some better accumulations 

GFS should be a SR model. 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a NAM forecast sounding from northeastern IL on Friday.  Nice lift with good omega present in the region of steep lapse rates aloft, and this also resides in the DGZ.  I think it's going to rip for a while, especially out around O'Hare and northward but perhaps even south of there.

 

375742525_2022120718_NAM_045_42.18-87.92_severe_ml.thumb.png.952487d0e1b7430654ade364212b8ac6.png

Models aren't really showing much/any accums for Chi-town. Guessing this will be a "now-cast" because the thermals are right on the hairy edge between SN/RN and may come down to rates. (0z looks like it took a slight step backwards). 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

The 12z Euro snow map literally brings snow up the edge of the Metro here and hits a wall. Can clearly see the UHI kill the snow as I've outlined in red. 

871280972_22-12-0712zEuroh78.png.9c36757d7fd3de0141bb7a9c643db459.png

I think only the Canadian shows any real amount now for here. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

recent GFS spits out some better accumulations 

yep. 18z put yby squarely back in the game. Like GRR says, mitigating factors will decrease the net effects of whatever does fall, but you may just make up for the weak performance of the Nov clippers last year with this one. 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hoosier Rising Star

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Models aren't really showing much/any accums for Chi-town. Guessing this will be a "now-cast" because the thermals are right on the hairy edge between SN/RN and may come down to rates. (0z looks like it took a slight step backwards). 

Yeah, I'm not saying there's going to be sig accums, just that I think there will be a nice burst of mod-hvy snow especially north of the city.

Btw, check your PMs.  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
On 12/5/2022 at 9:01 AM, Niko said:

FWIW, the snowline came further south than what it was yesterday, so that's good news. Now has Detroit in the snow color.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/hd23.jpg?w=632

 

On 12/5/2022 at 9:44 AM, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control juicer east this time.

image.thumb.png.8334561fd245750118a61f1bbed1c11c.png

Nope. 

Still, respectable midlevel height falls and diffluent flow aloft
will move across the region 18z Friday - 03z Saturday, and with
eventual column saturation, a period of scattered light rain,
rain/snow mix will be possible across much of the region with
greatest likelihood south of I-69. Questions still remain on
quickness of wet bulbing/evaporative cooling processes with regards
to snow potential, but overall light QPF amounts (under 0.10 inch
with snow ratios under 10:1) will lend any accumulating snow amounts
to a few tenths of an inch at best.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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bud2380 Mentor

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Still a lot of model disagreement and the event is almost underway.  The NAM and GFS are much further north than the Canadian and HRRR in particular.  The Euro is more in between.  It's not a very wide band, so a little wobble either way will mean a hit or miss for some.  

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Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00"

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gabel23 Proficient

gabel23

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

No school here, just announced. Freezing drizzle has made it extremely slick. 

No late start but I'm wondering if we get an early out. We haven't had any precip thus far but did have frost this morning. Temps are in the teens; waiting to see if the precip makes it up to us. 

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

No late start but I'm wondering if we get an early out. We haven't had any precip thus far but did have frost this morning. Temps are in the teens; waiting to see if the precip makes it up to us. 

It is unbelievably slick. The drizzle is very heavy, almost a light rain at 21 degrees. I think every school around here that was a 10 am start is now closed. I bet you get out early. 

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gabel23 Proficient

gabel23

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is unbelievably slick. The drizzle is very heavy, almost a light rain at 21 degrees. I think every school around here that was a 10 am start is now closed. I bet you get out early. 

Yes sir we are! Drizzle has just moved in within the past 30 minutes. 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, westMJim said:

With the updated forecast it still looks like it will be too warm in most areas to see much in the way of snow accumulations  over the next week or so. The when it gets colder it becomes dry.  So will there be a White Christmas? Too soon to tell.

@Tom thinks we'll get something, tho the pattern has not shown that to date. Big wound-up N Plains storms followed by CAD or limp systems. Until Feb??

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

NWS upped totals for Minnehaha County to 4-6 inches and mentioned seeing 1" per hour rates. Super freaking bummed I'm missing out on our biggest snowstorm so far but fortunately it looks like this won't be our last large snowstorm with at least a couple more chances over the next two weeks. So that helps slightly.

My wife is planning to video call me later tonight when it really starts dumping so I can at least enjoy it through the phone. Not the same as being there but better than staring out at this gray, rainy sky in Seattle!

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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gabel23 Proficient

gabel23

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Ended up with a whopping .10” of rain.

FE79CC53-71C3-438B-AFE1-E79E9F084515.jpeg

Your weather station is way better than mine. I know we have had precip after the slip and fall I had tonight taking out the garbage, but nothing recorded.  I'm guessing we aren't to far off your total though 80 miles to the west. Ice sucks. 

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Grizzcoat Mentor

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Holy crap!! 3”/hr snowfall rates in Sioux Falls!!

 

FA72EAF0-E433-44CC-9EB9-713C66B9EB41.jpeg

Was just gonna post this- beat me to it. But snow increasing rapidly remark of 3" an hour is impressive.

Data at: 0304 UTC 09 Dec 2022

KFSD 090256Z 09009KT 1/2SM SN FG VV005 01/M01 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP213 SNINCR 3/5 P0019 60050 I3002 T00111011 58013 RVRNO

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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OmahaSnowFan Grand Master

OmahaSnowFan

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Your weather station is way better than mine. I know we have had precip after the slip and fall I had tonight taking out the garbage, but nothing recorded.  I'm guessing we aren't to far off your total though 80 miles to the west. Ice sucks. 

Luckily we’ve been all rain/sleet here. Right when the convective showers started to form I had one pass over our house and drop some heavy sleet and ice pellets for a couple minutes. Here’s the tail end of the heavy rates

 

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gabel23 Proficient

gabel23

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Wow Thunder ice/snow showing up!

 

IMG_2193.MOV 385.05 kB · 1 download

8B0411F0-2E67-4FB4-8359-31591319F24C.jpeg

Now this!!! Things are over performing with this system for sure! Although we only experienced freezing drizzle/fog/rain all day here; I'm hopeful this is a sign of surprising storms to come! 

 

https://twitter.com/weather_buffalo/status/1601055930447056897?s=20&t=Q3cOlC6Rprj9mQzKfLRXDQ

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wife is reporting thundersnow with very loud thunder cracking overhead and heavy snow. I am SO FREAKING JEALOUS it's hard to contain it. Always wanted to experience thundersnow. Ugh!

I’ve experienced it once in this crazy Texas idea of snow!   It’s downright freaky.   
The sky was dark, snowing like crazy then it would thunder periodically.  
So, incongruent.  🤔

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

Security camera caught one of the cracks as my family was shoveling the driveway. All that snow has fallen since around 4PM central. It was so unexpected and loud they ran inside almost immediately. 

I. Cannot. Believe. I. Missed. This. 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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gabel23 Proficient

gabel23

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Security camera caught one of the cracks as my family was shoveling the driveway. All that snow has fallen since around 4PM central. It was so unexpected and loud they ran inside almost immediately. 

I. Cannot. Believe. I. Missed. This. 

That's amazing and so sad all in one reply!!!!

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