12/8 - 12/9 "I-80 Corridor Snow Event"

[Tom]

Here we go...is this the 1st "Share the Wealth" snowstorm of the season???  It appears the models are trying to converge on a general consensus for a I-80 "mini" special to kick start the Holiday storm tracking season.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS mean...it fizzles out the farther east due to lack of cold air...lets see if this changes in the next few runs...

 

 

[Niko]

FWIW, the snowline came further south than what it was yesterday, so that's good news. Now has Detroit in the snow color.

[tStacsh]

Models are still all over the place.  Todays runs will be interesting. 

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control juicer east this time.

[GDR]

Nice soaking rain on the gfs for many

[Hawkeye]

Still nada from the GFS.  I'd still take the soaker.

[BMT]

Canadian lifted a bit further north, but its juiced. hwy 80/30 ride the RN/SN line.  EDIT: quite a bit of ice along HWY30 too. 

[Hawkeye]

A good jump north from the UK

[james1976]

Canadian is a highway 20 special

[jaster220]

It is follow the bouncing models time as they waffle N & S. DTX over-night leaned a little more committed towards a snowy outcome (like Niko's Accu-map)

At this time, medium range model consensus suggests a track either
over southern portions of the forecast area or perhaps a bit further
south into the northern Ohio Valley region will be favored. With the
advent of colder air with the Canadian high pressure, snow will be
more common with this system, especially if it tracks far enough
north to bring deformation banding to parts of the area. If this
occurs, accumulations will be possible. This will be the time frame
that much of the upcoming forecast will focus on this week.

[gabel23]

Up up and away. I'm gonna ride the euro it's been fairly consistent. I wouldn't be shocked though if it does move north with the other models. We are jinxed at receiving any substantial precip.....

[GDR]

Gfs for the win!

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control juicer east this time.

Interesting how EC 6z (C) seems to like us over here in SEMI. Be interesting to see if it is right tho?

[gabel23]

9 minutes ago, GDR said:

Gfs for the win!

Wouldn't complain one bit! I would take a good soaking rain in December any day of the week with how dry it's been! 

[bud2380]

Canadian.

I'm starting to get less optimistic down this way.  I think either the GFS is right and it will be mostly rain, or even if it is snow, it will likely be further north.  

 

• 

[Hoosier]

To me, the lack of appreciable antecedent cold air and where this system emerges into the Plains would have me favoring I-80/north for snow potential.  I know the 00z Euro was farther south but I'm kinda skeptical about that.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

To me, the lack of appreciable antecedent cold air and where this system emerges into the Plains would have me favoring I-80/north for snow potential.  I know the 00z Euro was farther south but I'm kinda skeptical about that.

I-80 in what state tho? Makes a difference

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I-80 in what state tho? Makes a difference

Snow band should be fairly west-east oriented and I-80 also pretty much runs that way with some kinks here and there, so I'd think it would be a good dividing line all the way across.  If I-80 in Iowa gets screwed, then I-80 in Indiana probably will too.

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Snow band should be fairly west-east oriented and I-80 also pretty much runs that way with some kinks here and there, so I'd think it would be a good dividing line all the way across.  If I-80 in Iowa gets screwed, then I-80 in Indiana probably will too.

Yeah, I looked and to my surprise IA & IN have I-80 at almost the same LAT. If that ends up the RN/SN line I think mby will do well. TBD

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Here we go...is this the 1st "Share the Wealth" snowstorm of the season???  It appears the models are trying to converge on a general consensus for a I-80 "mini" special to kick start the Holiday storm tracking season.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS mean...it fizzles out the farther east due to lack of cold air...lets see if this changes in the next few runs...

 

 

 

DTX mentioning that the Canadian HP will shift just enough south to provide a "cold feed". We need that over here obviously. When you coming back to IL for winter fun??

[jaster220]

WPC "south" with their snow line Wed-Thur:

 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro shifted the snow into southern Iowa last night, but it has jumped back to northern Iowa.  The model trend this morning is definitely north.

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro shifted the snow into southern Iowa last night, but it has jumped back to northern Iowa.  The model trend this morning is definitely north.

Somebody tell the Windy City smart Alek to revise.

[bud2380]

Disappointing model runs for my area today. Not surprising though. The highway 20 corridor in Iowa always does much better than down here along I80. Hopefully at least someone in Iowa gets a solid snow out of it though. 

[Iceresistance]

It appears that the bulk of the snow will be for most of Nebraska, then along and North of I-80 from Ohama, NE to Pennsylvania!

[Bellona]

14 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Disappointing model runs for my area today. Not surprising though. The highway 20 corridor in Iowa always does much better than down here along I80. Hopefully at least someone in Iowa gets a solid snow out of it though. 

It does always seem to be that way doesn't it? It's rare to have a snowstorm affect all of Iowa anymore, at least in recent days. I sit literally less than a mile from highway 20.

[Hawkeye]

I wouldn't mind missing this one if it means we get next week's bigger, slower, colder storm.

[Tom]

12z EPS... @james1976reelin' this one in??

 

 

 

[james1976]

17 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z EPS... @james1976reelin' this one in??

 

 

 

Haha bullseye right over my IA home and I'll be down there. Fingers crossed!

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

 

DTX mentioning that the Canadian HP will shift just enough south to provide a "cold feed". We need that over here obviously. When you coming back to IL for winter fun??

Actually, I'm waiting a few days to make that decision as we speak.  I may need to make a pit stop somewhere before I get back.  Its nerve wrecking tracking these storms and possibly missing the 1st big snow.  I think this system is going to N of Chi or be more of a nuisance snow RN to SN or Mix scenario...

[tStacsh]

GRR favors the Euro currently.  

 

THE GFS IS WARMER AND WOULD   HAVE THE SNOW UP IN CENTRAL LOWER AND POINTS TO THE NORTH OF   THERE. THE ECWMF IS COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW IN THE I-96   AND I-94 CORRIDORS. A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL THIS DOWN, BUT I WOULD   LEAN TO THE FURTHER SOUTH LOOK IN THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT GIVEN A   ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO NOT EXPAND THE PRECIP AND WARM AIR   FURTHER NORTH AS MUCH.  

[Bellona]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Haha bullseye right over my IA home and I'll be down there. Fingers crossed!

This would be perfect for us!

[Clinton]

18z Euro at hr90 and snowfall up to hr90.

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro at hr90 and snowfall up to hr90.

Seeing these Euro runs, and to some extent the CMC, I can't help but see similarities with 11/22/15. I posted that I needed a W-->E slider like that one to cure my "snowless blues". Well, here we are. I appreciate you continuing to share maps even tho it looks like yby will sit this one out. 

[Niko]

Looks like they are going w/ the Euro.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Seeing these Euro runs, and to some extent the CMC, I can't help but see similarities with 11/22/15. I posted that I needed a W-->E slider like that one to cure my "snowless blues". Well, here we are. I appreciate you continuing to share maps even tho it looks like yby will sit this one out. 

You are on the money with this one.  I wasn't expecting anything out of this one but I was hoping the one around the 12th would deliver but it may miss to my NW.  There will be more after these 2 I love active patterns and there are going to be a lot of storm threads between now and New Years.

[jaster220]

13 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks like they are going w/ the Euro.

Yep, and if GRR is too, that says a lot. DTX says "it's all about that Canadian HP"

A big determining factor of how this plays out is an area of high pressure
drifting across southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes
through this time. A stronger high building in faster and farther
south will keep the mid and surface lows farther south which will
introduce more cold air via northeasterly flow undercutting the warm
moist air which all results in snow chances with deformation
banding. A slower or weaker high could allow the low to drift
farther north keeping warmer temps closer to the low center over the
region resulting in more rain. The ECMWF has held firm with a more
southern track for the lows, whereas the GFS has been the more
northerly solution.
 

You kinda see that in the way the snow swatch arcs SE as it heads through here. Much the same way the 2nd large storm did back in Feb 2011:

[jaster220]

Interesting CPC comments on today's developments:

The toughest hazard to nail down east of the Rockies is
snow. There is a clear non-GFS camp when it comes to wintry weather in the Midwest, with the
ECMWF/CMC showing a swath of heavy snow north of the expected storm track. More recent runs of the
GFS have come closer to the ECMWF/CMC camp, so it is possible heavy snow becomes the primary hazard
within the Midwest heavy precipitation threat area.

[Clinton]

18z EC moved the heavier band of snow further east in Iowa vs 12z.

Ensemble Mean:

[jcwxguy]

Needs to shift south

[Niko]

You can actually see that surge of "HP" pushing south over S MI providing that fresh cold air.

[gabel23]

Seems like the models are starting to come to an agreement in terms of track. Thermo's is gonna be the battle. Northern Nebraska, South Dakota, and Northern Iowa sitting in a good spot for moderate snow. Ice/rain will fall south of there. I would gladly take any form of precip. Dry air to the south will also be a problem. 

[james1976]

CMC slightly north of 12z. This might be a Minnesota special yet.

[Hawkeye]

It's about punt time for this one for central/southern Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

It's about punt time for this one for central/southern Iowa.

Yep. Thread should be titled "I-90" instead of I-80. Trend is  N and I don't see it stopping either.

Probably going to go visit my mother in the Twin Cities before the event early Thursday and do snow removal for her. If you can't beat them- join them!!! 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z NAM and RDPS give Twin Cities accumulating snowfall. NWS DMX just went all in on COLD rain in C.IA to 100% Thursday night. Good time to get out of dodge.

[Grizzcoat]

MPX notices the big trend N--

- Thursday night/Friday storm system is trending north. Headline-worthy
  accumulating snow is now likely across southern MN.

 

Attention then turns to the system for late week. There has been a
rather significant shift northward since yesterday and that is
mainly driven by a more amplified ridge across the southeastern U.S.
With the mid level wave now tracking across central IA as opposed to
MO-IL-IN, the shield of precipitation has advanced deeper into MN
and WI and PoP/QPF have begun to increase. There has been little
consistency with this system for the past 48 hours or so, aside from
most ensemble members shifting farther north and west in unison and
the spread beginning to cluster better. Since we are now about 72
hours out from this potential system, better consistency trends and
confidence should increase markedly later today or tonight. This
progressive, but potent system should have a swath of heavy
precipitation on it`s northern half. 00Z EPS mean QPF is on the
order of 0.5-0.6 inches where this precip shield tracks, including
over southern MN, while the GEFS is heavier (0.75-1.0 inches) but
remains the southernmost solution with the band across the southern
half of IA. Forecast profiles indicate a mild boundary layer that
could be capable of a cornucopia of precip types and only a degree
or two will make a big difference. This system has quickly become the
biggest headache in the forecast with lots of uncertainty and a
potential higher impact event.

[Tom]

0z EPS...don't throw the towel in yet...big uptick for some in the SN dept...This would be a great scenario for the ski resorts in S Wisco...Cascade and Devil's Head among others would welcome this...

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...don't throw the towel in yet...big uptick for some in the SN dept...This would be a great scenario for the ski resorts in S Wisco...Cascade and Devil's Head among others would welcome this...

 

I gave up on this 2 days ago.  Im just just gonna give up on any pre xmas snow in my area any longer.  Between recurring  drought for 13 straight summers and maybe only 3 or 5 weeks of real winter each year Im about to throw in the towel  on this business! Which is totally  absurd, since we have almost 60 commercial  snow accounts  and 200 lawn accounts.  Too much down  time all year  in this place!!!!! The past 4 years we have had maybe 3 plowable snows  in December  and march. How pathetic  is that! Id do better in North  Carolina  or Arkansas!

[Stacsh]

GFS for the track win.