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12/8 - 12/9 "I-80 Corridor Snow Event"


Tom

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You can actually see that surge of "HP" pushing south over S MI providing that fresh cold air.

https://s.w-x.co/sestorms125.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Seems like the models are starting to come to an agreement in terms of track. Thermo's is gonna be the battle. Northern Nebraska, South Dakota, and Northern Iowa sitting in a good spot for moderate snow. Ice/rain will fall south of there. I would gladly take any form of precip. Dry air to the south will also be a problem. 

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

It's about punt time for this one for central/southern Iowa.

Yep. Thread should be titled "I-90" instead of I-80. Trend is  N and I don't see it stopping either.

Probably going to go visit my mother in the Twin Cities before the event early Thursday and do snow removal for her. If you can't beat them- join them!!! 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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06Z NAM and RDPS give Twin Cities accumulating snowfall. NWS DMX just went all in on COLD rain in C.IA to 100% Thursday night. Good time to get out of dodge.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MPX notices the big trend N--

- Thursday night/Friday storm system is trending north. Headline-worthy
  accumulating snow is now likely across southern MN.

 

Attention then turns to the system for late week. There has been a
rather significant shift northward since yesterday and that is
mainly driven by a more amplified ridge across the southeastern U.S.
With the mid level wave now tracking across central IA as opposed to
MO-IL-IN, the shield of precipitation has advanced deeper into MN
and WI and PoP/QPF have begun to increase. There has been little
consistency with this system for the past 48 hours or so, aside from
most ensemble members shifting farther north and west in unison and
the spread beginning to cluster better. Since we are now about 72
hours out from this potential system, better consistency trends and
confidence should increase markedly later today or tonight. This
progressive, but potent system should have a swath of heavy
precipitation on it`s northern half. 00Z EPS mean QPF is on the
order of 0.5-0.6 inches where this precip shield tracks, including
over southern MN, while the GEFS is heavier (0.75-1.0 inches) but
remains the southernmost solution with the band across the southern
half of IA. Forecast profiles indicate a mild boundary layer that
could be capable of a cornucopia of precip types and only a degree
or two will make a big difference. This system has quickly become the
biggest headache in the forecast with lots of uncertainty and a
potential higher impact event.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...don't throw the towel in yet...big uptick for some in the SN dept...This would be a great scenario for the ski resorts in S Wisco...Cascade and Devil's Head among others would welcome this...

5.png

 

I gave up on this 2 days ago.  Im just just gonna give up on any pre xmas snow in my area any longer.  Between recurring  drought for 13 straight summers and maybe only 3 or 5 weeks of real winter each year Im about to throw in the towel  on this business! Which is totally  absurd, since we have almost 60 commercial  snow accounts  and 200 lawn accounts.  Too much down  time all year  in this place!!!!! The past 4 years we have had maybe 3 plowable snows  in December  and march. How pathetic  is that! Id do better in North  Carolina  or Arkansas!

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13 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

GFS for the track win.  

Sadly, once again, it looks to be the case: COLD FAIL. Tbh, it is not that surprising via Climo. When I lived in NMI, I always considered systems b4 Christmas as "my storms" (haha). And almost without fail they'd find their way to that outcome. Now, 2nd half of winter suppression was the rule and the opposite would happen. Storms would look promising and stay south.

Despite the Euro's stubbornness (which can be it's bad bias with early season events) I think it will be wrong. Saw the GFS's warmth call win out with the 11-26-18 early season storm as well. This will just be the latest case of modelling rubbish as the Brits say.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Sadly, once again, it looks to be the case: COLD FAIL. Tbh, it is not that surprising via Climo. When I lived in NMI, I always considered systems b4 Christmas as "my storms" (haha). And almost without fail they'd find their way to that outcome. Now, 2nd half of winter suppression was the rule and the opposite would happen. Storms would look promising and stay south.

Despite the Euro's stubbornness (which can be it's bad bias with early season events) I think it will be wrong. Saw the GFS's warmth call win out with the 11-26-18 early season storm as well. This will just be the latest case of modelling rubbish as the Brits say.

GR is still bullish on snow potential (For my area at least) though.  So we shall see.  Really a battle of R/S line as there will be moisture.  

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

GR is still bullish on snow potential (For my area at least) though.  So we shall see.  Really a battle of R/S line as there will be moisture.  

You may be fine since you are on the N side of GR. I was mostly speaking for here. And by Cold Fail, it was more in regards to the system not being an I-80 special, which leaves those at that LAT upset be it in Iowa or others.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NOAA: Bears watching!

Medium range models continue to advertise a more significant storm
system ejecting into the area late in the week as a southern stream
shortwave works from the southwest CONUS through the middle of the
country on into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. While the spread of
solutions (both in the timing and north/south orientation of the
storm system) remain somewhat wide, there does appear to be a decent
shot at a significant storm system in the area which would have the
capability of producing accumulating snow. While the timing, as
suggested above, is not certain, trends suggest that the daytime
Friday into Friday evening time frame is becoming most likely.
Confidence is low still, however, as the interaction with the large
high pressure system over/north of the area will be tricky in this
scenario as this system lifts into the region.

AND:

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/hd29-20.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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18 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA: Bears watching!

Medium range models continue to advertise a more significant storm
system ejecting into the area late in the week as a southern stream
shortwave works from the southwest CONUS through the middle of the
country on into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. While the spread of
solutions (both in the timing and north/south orientation of the
storm system) remain somewhat wide, there does appear to be a decent
shot at a significant storm system in the area which would have the
capability of producing accumulating snow. While the timing, as
suggested above, is not certain, trends suggest that the daytime
Friday into Friday evening time frame is becoming most likely.
Confidence is low still, however, as the interaction with the large
high pressure system over/north of the area will be tricky in this
scenario as this system lifts into the region.

AND:

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/hd29-20.jpg?w=632

Too bad that map is not the official Gov map, LOL. My high temp for Friday has been going in the wrong direction for any real snow here. I know this is a "thread the needle" scenario at best for me, so I am remaining pessimistic so as not to get too invested in some white rain. At this point, my feeling is a WWA headline (legit one anyways) would be a huge win for my LAT).

Edit: Not a fan of daytime timing either. I swear, annot catch a break here.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Too bad that map is not the official Gov map, LOL. My high temp for Friday has been going in the wrong direction for any real snow here. I know this is a "thread the needle" scenario at best for me, so I am remaining pessimistic so as not to get too invested in some white rain. At this point, my feeling is a WWA headline (legit one anyways) would be a huge win for my LAT).

Edit: Not a fan of daytime timing either. I swear, annot catch a break here.

I hear ya, this to me is looking more like a wet snow event (not-sticking anywhere during the day) and possibly a light accumulation during the evening b4 ending. No cold air amigo. Dont forget, this is now the new December norm. 😆

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I actually hope (if no snow) that DSM area gets dry slotted. Some guidance is starting to show that. Nothing more miserable than mid 30's and moderate/heavy rain. Looking for the dry slot in C.IA but hoping the Twin Cities gets rocked as I will be there.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

I actually hope (if no snow) that DSM area gets dry slotted. Some guidance is starting to show that. Nothing more miserable than mid 30's and moderate/heavy rain. Looking for the dry slot in C.IA but hoping the Twin Cities gets rocked as I will be there.

Des has a 6.5 inch deficit, Kirksville  8 inch deficit.  Im around 7 inch deficit.   Ponds  almost  dried up.  I will take all the rain we can get. Especially  since the ground not frozen  thick yet.

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I'm making it sort of a personal goal to actually dissect the reasons for local storm whiffs this winter, the hope being that learning from mistakes helps sniff out what will actually happen instead of living & dying by individual model runs.

In this situation it seems like the synoptic pattern doesn't favor anything other than northward storm tracks. Featuring most prominently in that reasoning is how our storm system next week will be actively digging south & east from the Gulf of Alaska into the West Coast, creating not only a -PNA set-up but an intensifying -PNA set-up as that trough moves in. It's worth mentioning the 'intensifying' part because it supports intensifying ridging downstream in response to the -PNA, making it an uphill battle for southerly storm tracks to pan out.

Likely adding some degree of influence is the ongoing -NAO, which continues to keep the North American jet stream nice and meridional on the whole. Instead of supporting cold chances, though, it amplifies the -PNA pattern. This isn't a big surprise - a regime upstream of any given location will almost always have a more direct impact on that location's pattern than a regime downstream, referring here to the PNA and NAO respectively - but does help to amplify the upper-level flow as a whole. Unfortunately for us folks around I-80, this means a preference for a deeper -PNA and, consequentially, a stronger East U.S. ridge which pumps storm tracks further north.

 

The event hasn't happened yet, so it's not really a postmortem, but clearly the synoptic pattern favors the storm taking that northward track the GFS clung to initially.

index.png

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More ice coming with just a little snow.  Well I guess it is something.

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation beginning as
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix including
  freezing rain and then snow. Total snow accumulations of up to
  one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
  central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday night to 3 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and afternoon commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin overnight as
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix including freezing
  rain and then eventually snow during the daytime hours on the
  back side of the storm system.
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28 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

More ice coming with just a little snow.  Well I guess it is something.

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation beginning as
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix including
  freezing rain and then snow. Total snow accumulations of up to
  one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
  central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday night to 3 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and afternoon commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin overnight as
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix including freezing
  rain and then eventually snow during the daytime hours on the
  back side of the storm system.

I guess it's better than stepping off the Hype Train empty-handed

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NOAA:

Medium range projections in today`s 12Z model cycle maintain
solutions that bring today`s southern California low pressure system
into the Midwest by early Friday. There is reasonable agreement on
the track and strength of the short wave as it is kicked eastward by
next round of Pacific jet energy with the mid level circulation
reaching the south end of Lake Michigan by Friday afternoon. Model
variations are greater with the magnitude and placement of the QPF
axis which also feeds into precipitation type expectations. The
ECMWF is reasonable representation of consensus among the
deterministic solutions considering the short wave is forced to
shear eastward during the day Friday. Surface temperature guidance
is well above freezing during the day while NAM and GFS model
soundings are closer to a snow sounding. For now, a high POP
rain/snow mix with some light accumulation looks like a good start
while keeping a close eye on temperature trends. Strong surface high
pressure over northern Ontario and Quebec is poised to have a colder
influence on the low level thermal profile likely requiring
refinements to the proportions of rain and snow in upcoming
forecasts.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@jaster220Think about this, at least flakes will be flying to get ya in the Christmas mood. 😬

 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, Niko said:

@jaster220Think about this, at least flakes will be flying to get ya in the Christmas mood. 😬

 

Thx for the nice thought amigo! I'm enjoying the holiday season very much so far, despite the short term let-down in the winter wx dept. Tbh, I would have zero issues with this week's wx from a historical standpoint (climo) had we not been engaged in trying to "out guess" Ma Nature and jumping on flawed technology that makes promises it can't deliver without her agreement. Disappointment will linger if I end up with a "dab" after expecting a legit snowstorm, but there's always next month, year, decade, etc.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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38 minutes ago, james1976 said:

The spotty nature of these maps tells me there's mixing issues. Doesn't give much confidence on snow amounts. 

I'd still trade places with yby

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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