12/8 - 12/9 "I-80 Corridor Snow Event"

[jaster220]

13 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

GFS for the track win.  

Sadly, once again, it looks to be the case: COLD FAIL. Tbh, it is not that surprising via Climo. When I lived in NMI, I always considered systems b4 Christmas as "my storms" (haha). And almost without fail they'd find their way to that outcome. Now, 2nd half of winter suppression was the rule and the opposite would happen. Storms would look promising and stay south.

Despite the Euro's stubbornness (which can be it's bad bias with early season events) I think it will be wrong. Saw the GFS's warmth call win out with the 11-26-18 early season storm as well. This will just be the latest case of modelling rubbish as the Brits say.

[tStacsh]

33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Sadly, once again, it looks to be the case: COLD FAIL. Tbh, it is not that surprising via Climo. When I lived in NMI, I always considered systems b4 Christmas as "my storms" (haha). And almost without fail they'd find their way to that outcome. Now, 2nd half of winter suppression was the rule and the opposite would happen. Storms would look promising and stay south.

Despite the Euro's stubbornness (which can be it's bad bias with early season events) I think it will be wrong. Saw the GFS's warmth call win out with the 11-26-18 early season storm as well. This will just be the latest case of modelling rubbish as the Brits say.

GR is still bullish on snow potential (For my area at least) though.  So we shall see.  Really a battle of R/S line as there will be moisture.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

GR is still bullish on snow potential (For my area at least) though.  So we shall see.  Really a battle of R/S line as there will be moisture.  

You may be fine since you are on the N side of GR. I was mostly speaking for here. And by Cold Fail, it was more in regards to the system not being an I-80 special, which leaves those at that LAT upset be it in Iowa or others.

[Niko]

NOAA: Bears watching!

Medium range models continue to advertise a more significant storm
system ejecting into the area late in the week as a southern stream
shortwave works from the southwest CONUS through the middle of the
country on into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. While the spread of
solutions (both in the timing and north/south orientation of the
storm system) remain somewhat wide, there does appear to be a decent
shot at a significant storm system in the area which would have the
capability of producing accumulating snow. While the timing, as
suggested above, is not certain, trends suggest that the daytime
Friday into Friday evening time frame is becoming most likely.
Confidence is low still, however, as the interaction with the large
high pressure system over/north of the area will be tricky in this
scenario as this system lifts into the region.

AND:

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA: Bears watching!

Medium range models continue to advertise a more significant storm
system ejecting into the area late in the week as a southern stream
shortwave works from the southwest CONUS through the middle of the
country on into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. While the spread of
solutions (both in the timing and north/south orientation of the
storm system) remain somewhat wide, there does appear to be a decent
shot at a significant storm system in the area which would have the
capability of producing accumulating snow. While the timing, as
suggested above, is not certain, trends suggest that the daytime
Friday into Friday evening time frame is becoming most likely.
Confidence is low still, however, as the interaction with the large
high pressure system over/north of the area will be tricky in this
scenario as this system lifts into the region.

AND:

Too bad that map is not the official Gov map, LOL. My high temp for Friday has been going in the wrong direction for any real snow here. I know this is a "thread the needle" scenario at best for me, so I am remaining pessimistic so as not to get too invested in some white rain. At this point, my feeling is a WWA headline (legit one anyways) would be a huge win for my LAT).

Edit: Not a fan of daytime timing either. I swear, annot catch a break here.

[Niko]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Too bad that map is not the official Gov map, LOL. My high temp for Friday has been going in the wrong direction for any real snow here. I know this is a "thread the needle" scenario at best for me, so I am remaining pessimistic so as not to get too invested in some white rain. At this point, my feeling is a WWA headline (legit one anyways) would be a huge win for my LAT).

Edit: Not a fan of daytime timing either. I swear, annot catch a break here.

I hear ya, this to me is looking more like a wet snow event (not-sticking anywhere during the day) and possibly a light accumulation during the evening b4 ending. No cold air amigo. Dont forget, this is now the new December norm.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Definitely been a noticeable north and east trend with the precipitation.

I’m going with .2” of cold rain here.

[GDR]

Gfs moves a little more north

[bud2380]

 

The NAM puts down a lot of snow in northern Iowa.  I may have to go visit my parents. 

 

[bud2380]

RDPS (short range Canadian)

 

[james1976]

I feel like this will be a tough forecast with the cut offs and thermals.

[Bellona]

I'm not too hopeful for anyone south of 20 in Iowa. Hoping I can score maybe a few inches. Still time to shift back some.

[bud2380]

The Canadian is now showing snow up to the Twin Cities

 

[bud2380]

UK also a huge shift north.  Funny, I see models shift north when showing snow over east central Iowa all the time, but whenever snow is just to the south of us, they rarely shift north.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like another swing and miss.  Hoping we at least get some moisture, but not holding my breath.  Just so hard to break a drought.

[Grizzcoat]

I actually hope (if no snow) that DSM area gets dry slotted. Some guidance is starting to show that. Nothing more miserable than mid 30's and moderate/heavy rain. Looking for the dry slot in C.IA but hoping the Twin Cities gets rocked as I will be there.

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

I actually hope (if no snow) that DSM area gets dry slotted. Some guidance is starting to show that. Nothing more miserable than mid 30's and moderate/heavy rain. Looking for the dry slot in C.IA but hoping the Twin Cities gets rocked as I will be there.

Des has a 6.5 inch deficit, Kirksville  8 inch deficit.  Im around 7 inch deficit.   Ponds  almost  dried up.  I will take all the rain we can get. Especially  since the ground not frozen  thick yet.

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Des has a 6.5 inch deficit, Kirksville  8 inch deficit.  Im around 7 inch deficit.   Ponds  almost  dried up.  I will take all the rain we can get. Especially  since the ground not frozen  thick yet.

Our region is a 10-20" deficit since Oct. 2021

[bud2380]

Euro actually shifted south some, but the snow decreased this run, due to warm temps and poor ratios.

 

 

 

[bud2380]

EPS mean continues to look better than the operational model.  But this is also 10:1 and it looks like ratios would be worse than that.

 

[The Snowman]

I'm making it sort of a personal goal to actually dissect the reasons for local storm whiffs this winter, the hope being that learning from mistakes helps sniff out what will actually happen instead of living & dying by individual model runs.

In this situation it seems like the synoptic pattern doesn't favor anything other than northward storm tracks. Featuring most prominently in that reasoning is how our storm system next week will be actively digging south & east from the Gulf of Alaska into the West Coast, creating not only a -PNA set-up but an intensifying -PNA set-up as that trough moves in. It's worth mentioning the 'intensifying' part because it supports intensifying ridging downstream in response to the -PNA, making it an uphill battle for southerly storm tracks to pan out.

Likely adding some degree of influence is the ongoing -NAO, which continues to keep the North American jet stream nice and meridional on the whole. Instead of supporting cold chances, though, it amplifies the -PNA pattern. This isn't a big surprise - a regime upstream of any given location will almost always have a more direct impact on that location's pattern than a regime downstream, referring here to the PNA and NAO respectively - but does help to amplify the upper-level flow as a whole. Unfortunately for us folks around I-80, this means a preference for a deeper -PNA and, consequentially, a stronger East U.S. ridge which pumps storm tracks further north.

 

The event hasn't happened yet, so it's not really a postmortem, but clearly the synoptic pattern favors the storm taking that northward track the GFS clung to initially.

[CentralNebWeather]

More ice coming with just a little snow.  Well I guess it is something.

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation beginning as
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix including
  freezing rain and then snow. Total snow accumulations of up to
  one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
  central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday night to 3 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and afternoon commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin overnight as
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix including freezing
  rain and then eventually snow during the daytime hours on the
  back side of the storm system.

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

More ice coming with just a little snow.  Well I guess it is something.

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation beginning as
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix including
  freezing rain and then snow. Total snow accumulations of up to
  one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
  central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday night to 3 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and afternoon commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin overnight as
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix including freezing
  rain and then eventually snow during the daytime hours on the
  back side of the storm system.

I guess it's better than stepping off the Hype Train empty-handed

[Niko]

NOAA:

Medium range projections in today`s 12Z model cycle maintain
solutions that bring today`s southern California low pressure system
into the Midwest by early Friday. There is reasonable agreement on
the track and strength of the short wave as it is kicked eastward by
next round of Pacific jet energy with the mid level circulation
reaching the south end of Lake Michigan by Friday afternoon. Model
variations are greater with the magnitude and placement of the QPF
axis which also feeds into precipitation type expectations. The
ECMWF is reasonable representation of consensus among the
deterministic solutions considering the short wave is forced to
shear eastward during the day Friday. Surface temperature guidance
is well above freezing during the day while NAM and GFS model
soundings are closer to a snow sounding. For now, a high POP
rain/snow mix with some light accumulation looks like a good start
while keeping a close eye on temperature trends. Strong surface high
pressure over northern Ontario and Quebec is poised to have a colder
influence on the low level thermal profile likely requiring
refinements to the proportions of rain and snow in upcoming
forecasts.

[Niko]

@jaster220Think about this, at least flakes will be flying to get ya in the Christmas mood.

 

[bud2380]

18z Euro 

[james1976]

The spotty nature of these maps tells me there's mixing issues. Doesn't give much confidence on snow amounts. 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Niko said:

@jaster220Think about this, at least flakes will be flying to get ya in the Christmas mood.

 

Thx for the nice thought amigo! I'm enjoying the holiday season very much so far, despite the short term let-down in the winter wx dept. Tbh, I would have zero issues with this week's wx from a historical standpoint (climo) had we not been engaged in trying to "out guess" Ma Nature and jumping on flawed technology that makes promises it can't deliver without her agreement. Disappointment will linger if I end up with a "dab" after expecting a legit snowstorm, but there's always next month, year, decade, etc.

[jaster220]

38 minutes ago, james1976 said:

The spotty nature of these maps tells me there's mixing issues. Doesn't give much confidence on snow amounts. 

I'd still trade places with yby

[OttumwaSnomow]

8 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Our region is a 10-20" deficit since Oct. 2021

Our was 15 inch deficit  just in 2022. But we have been getting  above avg rain last 90 days.

[jaster220]

LOL. Keeps getting worse. 0z NAM doesn't even have a "storm" for The Mitt. Kills it off before it even crosses Lk. Michigan.

@Tom I don't think the GFS saw crap. It had that 18z dream run with tons of cold & storms, then immediately folded its hand right after that mega-bluff. None of that is happening. Not even close. I wouldn't make excuses for that model nor try to prop it up. The fact it appears to have scored a coup on this system is merely due to it having a warm bias, which just happens to have worked in its favor with the EPO fake-n-flip.   

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

LOL. Keeps getting worse. 0z NAM doesn't even have a "storm" for The Mitt. Kills it off before it even crosses Lk. Michigan.

@Tom I don't think the GFS saw crap. It had that 18z dream run with tons of cold & storms, then immediately folded its hand right after that mega-bluff. None of that is happening. Not even close. I wouldn't make excuses for that model nor try to prop it up. The fact it appears to have score a coup on this system is merely due to it having a warm bias, which just happens to have worked in its favor with the EPO fake-n-flip.   

And the NAO refusing to become more positive than expected. 

[jaster220]

NAM says congrats IA/MN/WI

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

NAM says congrats IA/MN/WI

Looks like it's going to putter out before it reaches your area which stinks.  Good news is there will be more storms coming and if mother nature throws enough punches one of them will land for ya.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

LOL. Keeps getting worse. 0z NAM doesn't even have a "storm" for The Mitt. Kills it off before it even crosses Lk. Michigan.

@Tom I don't think the GFS saw crap. It had that 18z dream run with tons of cold & storms, then immediately folded its hand right after that mega-bluff. None of that is happening. Not even close. I wouldn't make excuses for that model nor try to prop it up. The fact it appears to have scored a coup on this system is merely due to it having a warm bias, which just happens to have worked in its favor with the EPO fake-n-flip.   

Honestly I don't even think the GFS did that great with this upcoming storm.  A number of older runs literally had no snow band, like anywhere.  

[Grizzcoat]

Not buying it for one second until 12Z comes, (no upper air on 06/18Z) but 06Z NAM/3KM came in well S in C.IA-- even E.IA.  Take it for a grain of salt for now as almost certain the NWS DMX will not mention it / throw it out in upcoming AFD. (and they didn't mention it, though AFD was posted at 2:47AM so maybe they hadn't looked at it yet-- regardless-- they mentioned trend N, so my hunch is correct).

 

[Grizzcoat]

Potentially more important is the SREF has shifted some S also--- last two runs--

 

[Tom]

0z EPS...holding steadfast that the I-80 corridor shall be the dividing line across IA... @james1976 @bud2380 may need to pay a visit to his P's place...there is a signal that some impressive "thump" snow with embedded heavy snowfall rates.

[Clinton]

6z Euro similar to 0z

 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Niko]

Still 3 days out, but it looks more positive for the Euro to lead the way w/ this one than the gfs. Moderate snow could be arriving in mby by Friday. Still, bears watching.

[BMT]

3K NAM is much further north with the snow now.  

[tStacsh]

Thermals are so bad.  No longer interested in this.  Maybe an inch they say now.  But temps at 33-36.  meh.  Hopefully the big plains storm next week brings a pattern change, but not holding my breath.   

[Andie]

In honor of the snow blast (and the fact I probably won’t see snow this year) the only way I can participate is present this.  

A rare 12 pointed snowflake by Dr Jason Persoff, Colorado.   

[Grizzcoat]

Don't mind this dry slot coming up into south central IA  one bit-- despise a cold rain especially when avg precip for Dec here is like 1.5"-- be different if it was April or May when the precip would be much more needed.

[Niko]

The American Model is on rt w/ the Euro and takes a much further southern track, whereas yesterday was north. Tough call on this one, that's for sure. Good news is that both models agree. If I were to guess, I would say accumulating snows from M-59 North and mix or rain further south, especially towards the OH border. Time will tell.. Still 3 days to go.

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, Niko said:

The American Model is on rt w/ the Euro and takes a much further southern track, whereas yesterday was north. Tough call on this one, that's for sure. Good news is that both models agree. If I were to guess, I would say accumulating snows from M-59 North and mix or rain further south, especially towards the OH border. Time will tell.. Still 3 days to go.

Same ol same ol M-59 and north, sigh. And how is 48 hrs = 3 days, lol?

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Thermals are so bad.  No longer interested in this.  Maybe an inch they say now.  But temps at 33-36.  meh.  Hopefully the big plains storm next week brings a pattern change, but not holding my breath.   

Yep. This went from exciting stuff, to complete dumpster fire here in The Mitt. Can't wait til the next time we get this treatment from the models. Imho, the Euro continuing to show some SN across SMI is really just the latest tease. I doubt even those amounts will verify. I now have RN in my grid.

[bud2380]

Euro 10:1 vs Euro Kuchera.  Makes a huge difference.  Focusing on Iowa for now since that's where I live, but I'll post a regional map too.  The snow field shifted an entire row of counties south.  Cedar Rapids even gets in on the act this run.  

 

 

[bud2380]

Regional Kuchera.  I'm not really sure what the NWS is going to do with this one.  The GFS went way north today, the Euro went further south, and now the GFS finally has cold air working into the equation so has upped snow totals significantly.