PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Everleigh]

This may be a dumb question, apologies ahead of time........With what models are saying at the moment, are we expecting a warm up with AR around Christmas? Is there any possibility we stay cold enough, long enough for that to be snow? I am not asking what the models currently show...I am asking if it's a possibility it could change. 

Someone had said in order for our area to see the type of snow event Buffalo saw, we'd need an AR and obviously the cold....I just didn't know if this could possibly be that type of scenario? (I am assuming no, and that there needs to be more factors in play, but curious). 

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON does not even show the overrunning event going into Thursday... it waits until Friday now and looks pretty weak in terms of moisture.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's straight-up depressing how awful the N/S gradient is here. Being in the 50s on Christmas fuckking sucks. Warm fuckking temps during the coldest time of year...cannot wait to move one day and get out out of this goddam tinderbox.

Yes, it is so unfair that Eugene is modelled to torch hard on Christmas. No place else in the PNW will, only Eugene. Life sucks!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What an ICON!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

This may be a dumb question, apologies ahead of time........With what models are saying at the moment, are we expecting a warm up with AR around Christmas? Is there any possibility we stay cold enough, long enough for that to be snow? I am not asking what the models currently show...I am asking if it's a possibility it could change. 

Someone had said in order for our area to see the type of snow event Buffalo saw, we'd need an AR and obviously the cold....I just didn't know if this could possibly be that type of scenario? (I am assuming no, and that there needs to be more factors in play, but curious). 

Goofus seems a lot less torchy than the Euro map I just posted. Of course, it’s the Goofus. A Christmastime torch isn’t a sure thing (we are still 9 days out, see my tagline), but there are some decent signs of it being a real possibility.

Edit: Oh, you want snow and freezing temperatures to persist that long. That really does not seem likely, sorry.

[Front Ranger]

14 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

I’ll be skiing at Breckinridge Dec. 27-30th and in Denver for New Years. Been following a bit and it seems like it’s been a very dry boring early Winter there from what I can see. Hopefully Breckinridge can get some actual decent snow in the next couple weeks finally.

Yeah, November was decent but last few weeks not much precip around.

Have you been to Breck before? Great mountain, something for almost everyone.

[TT-SEA]

And it appears that the 12Z GFS will have none of this southward push.    Going in the other direction.    What actually happens is anyone's guess.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-15 at Burns, OR.

Should rename it Freezes.

[MossMan]

Low of 28.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow GFS is nothing like the icon. Or even the NAM?!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS snow event for Tuesday... only about 500 miles north of the ICON for something happening 3 days from now.

[Snownerd3000]

Eating breakfast watching the 12z gfs

[TT-SEA]

Early view of 12Z GEM... looks like ICON and going WAAAAAY south. 

[Nov1985]

GFS continues to do things its own unique way, but part 2 is a touch better in the 12z.

[Terreboner]

Good morning.  Currently at our low temperature of 6.5 with light snow flurries being wrung out of the low cloud deck.

[Timmy]

Gem is more interesting through monday

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mossman

[LowerGarfield]

32 minutes ago, Timmy said:

What ever happened to Timmy -supercell?

He moved to KY. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah GEM is fairly close to the ICON. Omg!!!

[Timmy]

The prime minister is king

[BLI snowman]

If this is legit, GFS really needs to be taken out back and shot.

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

He moved to KY. 

He is still pretty regular on Facebook.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

If this is legit, GFS really needs to be taken out back and shot.

Gfs is off the rails.  It’s gonna get cold. 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

If this is legit, GFS really needs to be taken out back and shot.

I’m not sure I have ever seen a clutch model run like this. I guess it’s only really clutch if it ends up winning though

[Timmy]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The prime minister is king

The 510 thickness line is already down to Tacoma by Tuesday evening. Cold run!

[TT-SEA]

The change for next Wednesday on the 12Z GEM from the 00Z run is insane.   Feels like its trying to go back to those crazy cold ECMWF runs early this week.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Omg could we see an arctic BLAST. The weak arctic front the GEM and icon are showing for western Oregon remind me of 1/5/04. We got about 1-2” of snow with temps in the mid20s with that in the willamette valley, before the overrunning stuff started later that night. 

[Everleigh]

25.7* and SUPER foggy all of a sudden....!

Edited December 16, 2022 by Everleigh
Added pictures

[Blizzard777]

It is a bit nippy out in the real world 

26*

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

He is still pretty regular on Facebook.

Is there northwest region Facebook group or just Oregon /specific location?

[TT-SEA]

And here comes the major overrunning event on the 12Z GEM...

 

[Terreboner]

This week has to be some of the most topsy turvy model riding that I have ever seen.

[jakerepp]

This model variance and run to run change is just nuts. Incredible to see such little agreement this close to the stuff.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

If this is legit, GFS really needs to be taken out back and shot.

I think the entire forum should go grab the GFS desktop computer (probably all it is, no big supercomputer could be this bad) load it into Snowmizer’s plow truck and find the nearest field to go all Office Space on that stupid thing. Everyone bring a bat! 

Edited December 16, 2022 by MossMan

[Terreboner]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Is there northwest region Facebook group or just Oregon /specific location?

I know he is still on a couple of the Portland weather ones.  I banned myself from them because the drama makes this place look like a monastery.

[Kolk1604]

Wow so at 120 hours, it's safe to lock this in right? 

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

This week has to be some of the most topsy turvy model riding that I have ever seen.

And it looks like we have almost another week of riding to go. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM looks like a dead ringer for January 2004. Yes please. 

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And here comes the major overrunning event on the 12Z GEM...

 

Wow, that’s a sleet storm at pdx with temps in the teens