PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Wow I’d like to see how the evolution of member 10 looks lol

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s trending colder homie. 

Trend is your friend. Models are still settling obviously and the latest guidance indicates a dramatic shift, so it's fair to assume that there is a little more space to maneuver in that direction before the last minute (<24 hour) moderating that will always happen.

[WeatherGeek2022]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Current IR Loop imagery

very quiet pacific

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What dates in Jan 2004?

 

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1/4-1/7

Here’s a good summary of the event.

‘The Storm began to unfold with an unexpected heavy snow storm on the morning of New Years Day, which was Thursday, January 1st. This snowstorm, however, was spotty, and mostly affected outlying areas to the south of Portland city center, such as Canby and Aurora.

In places like Canby, it began to snow around daybreak, and soon 4-6 inches piled up. It was the drier, lighter snow that is so enjoyable, and so unusual in the damp martime climate of the Portland area.

Temperatures stayed a bit subnormal for the next 3-4 days, and then temperatures dived. On both the 5th and 6th highs in Portland at PDX reached only 24 degrees, and with brutal east winds screaming out of the Columbia Gorge...Both of these days broke the old records for "low maximum temperature" for the date by 4 to 5 degrees.

On the 6th, all the intoxicating snow fun ended when warm air aloft began to override the cold arctic air.. Then a major FREEZING RAIN event turned the fun into danger that lasted for 3 to 4 long, long days and nights.’

http://www.oregonphotos.com/Ice Storm 2004.html

[selkirks]

Stepped away for a few busy days at work and *wow!* Pretty shocked the models seem to be flipping back. Hopefully we can get some moderation on the end of next week warmup too.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1/4-1/7

I vaguely remember it but not sure why it hasn’t stuck with me more like most sizeable events typically do. Though I don’t think I hit the 50-83” mark. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by MossMan

[smerfylicious]

Who needs the drive all the way to Skykomish when my local barista piled up a big hill of muck in the middle of his parking lot? New Gold Bar glacier lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Here’s a good summary of the event.

‘The Storm began to unfold with an unexpected heavy snow storm on the morning of New Years Day, which was Thursday, January 1st. This snowstorm, however, was spotty, and mostly affected outlying areas to the south of Portland city center, such as Canby and Aurora.

In places like Canby, it began to snow around daybreak, and soon 4-6 inches piled up. It was the drier, lighter snow that is so enjoyable, and so unusual in the damp martime climate of the Portland area.

Temperatures stayed a bit subnormal for the next 3-4 days, and then temperatures dived. On both the 5th and 6th highs in Portland at PDX reached only 24 degrees, and with brutal east winds screaming out of the Columbia Gorge...Both of these days broke the old records for "low maximum temperature" for the date by 4 to 5 degrees.

On the 6th, all the intoxicating snow fun ended when warm air aloft began to override the cold arctic air.. Then a major FREEZING RAIN event turned the fun into danger that lasted for 3 to 4 long, long days and nights.’

http://www.oregonphotos.com/Ice Storm 2004.html

Snowed 6” in Silverton on new years. We had 4.5” with the one on December 29th too

[Slushy Inch]

Slightly better so far.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I vaguely remember it but not sure why it hasn’t stuck with me more like most sizeable events typically do. 

Snow: 49-82in?

[Slushy Inch]

Three run trend...

[Terreboner]

#EPICRUGPUSHDECEMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just got caught up on 8 pages, unbelievable!!!  I'm going to go watch Snyder's video and see what he says.  This is unreal.

[MossMan]

Just now, Doinko said:

Snow: 49-82in?

Think that was an error. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I vaguely remember it but not sure why it hasn’t stuck with me more like most sizeable events typically do. 

Was definitely a more Portland and gorge-centric event from an impact standpoint. 

For the Puget Sound, there was some snow mostly just in the South Sound going into that and then the area-wide overrunning snowstorm on the 6th. But the thaw was fairly quick and the freezing rain wasn't an issue for most places up there. Portland had an extra 48 hours in the freezer and 1-1.5" of ice accumulations generally.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

#EPICRUGPUSHDECEMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just got caught up on 8 pages, unbelievable!!!  I'm going to go watch Snyder's video and see what he says.  This is unreal.

To sum it up, winter is back on but the crappy GFS solution still makes him a little nervous. He will be live streaming one of the 18z’s can’t remember which one. 

[RentonHill]

-28 for Colville is almost a record breaker. Still 6 days and probably wont happen...but still crazy to see these numbers being spit out. 

[Doinko]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

-28 for Colville is almost a record breaker. Still 6 days and probably wont happen...but still crazy to see these numbers being spit out. 

What's it spitting out for SeaTac and PDX?

[Slushy Inch]

Arctic front makes it to Oregon?

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

#EPICRUGPUSHDECEMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just got caught up on 8 pages, unbelievable!!!  I'm going to go watch Snyder's video and see what he says.  This is unreal.

Ya, FUKK the GOOFUS!!!  It's an embarrassment to the good ole USA!!!

[MWG]

I feel so left out . Beautiful clear day here though was needed. 

[Slushy Inch]

Tuesday system showing up on NAM

[Slushy Inch]

Great trends continue!

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Here’s a good summary of the event.

‘The Storm began to unfold with an unexpected heavy snow storm on the morning of New Years Day, which was Thursday, January 1st. This snowstorm, however, was spotty, and mostly affected outlying areas to the south of Portland city center, such as Canby and Aurora.

In places like Canby, it began to snow around daybreak, and soon 4-6 inches piled up. It was the drier, lighter snow that is so enjoyable, and so unusual in the damp martime climate of the Portland area.

Temperatures stayed a bit subnormal for the next 3-4 days, and then temperatures dived. On both the 5th and 6th highs in Portland at PDX reached only 24 degrees, and with brutal east winds screaming out of the Columbia Gorge...Both of these days broke the old records for "low maximum temperature" for the date by 4 to 5 degrees.

On the 6th, all the intoxicating snow fun ended when warm air aloft began to override the cold arctic air.. Then a major FREEZING RAIN event turned the fun into danger that lasted for 3 to 4 long, long days and nights.’

http://www.oregonphotos.com/Ice Storm 2004.html

The New Years snow was definitely more widespread from what I remember. We had a VERY surprising 3-4” in Vancouver that morning.

[Terreboner]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Great trends continue!

Seeing orange up and down the east coast just warms my heart.

[Slushy Inch]

Lol, GFS comparison.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

The New Years snow was definitely more widespread from what I remember. We had a VERY surprising 3-4” in Vancouver that morning.

Pretty sure Eugene had snow too. I think out toward McMinnville and Hillsboro it wasn’t much as the wrap around precip didn’t extend out there as much. 

[Terreboner]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Lol, GFS comparison.

We may see some serious jet suppression this week the models are not picking up on.  I'm excited about the possibilities.

[Sandy rocks]

I have follow you guys for years now. I have lived east of Portland in Troutdale, Gresham, and now Sandy since 1987. I have seen a multitude of systems come through here in the winter and have never seen a quick moderation after we have had arctic air. The gorge has created some strange situations in all those years but what never happens is that it moderates quickly into warm rain. I still think the models don't have a good understanding of the gorge. When the east wind blows we become more like eastern Oregon than western. 

[Meatyorologist]

Huge GFS cave in an hour.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our last high of 25 or below was on 1/4/2017. Happened a couple times in December 2013 with a high of 21 on the 8th and we had a high of 23 in February 2014. 

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's it spitting out for SeaTac and PDX?

 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Huge GFS cave in an hour.

I was about to post this... seems like it go no choice. Unless it's being extremely stubborn. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS

 

On top of the much discussed nice trends in the short to mid range, I’m also liking the fact that the long range blowtorch from yesterday is becoming watered down. Definitely looks like a wetter pattern toward the end of the month though which would be the best of both worlds.

[jakerepp]

Anyone got some maps and charts for Boise

[MossMan]

My work contact that lives in Omak (has for 30+ years) just mentioned they got another foot of snow last weekend. Got down to 5 last night and mentioned that “something is wrong when 11 degrees feels warm”  

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I have follow you guys for years now. I have lived east of Portland in Troutdale, Gresham, and now Sandy since 1987. I have seen a multitude of systems come through here in the winter and have never seen a quick moderation after we have had arctic air. The gorge has created some strange situations in all those years but what never happens is that it moderates quickly into warm rain. I still think the models don't have a good understanding of the gorge. When the east wind blows we become more like eastern Oregon than western. 

Welcome! It’s nice to have a poster from out in that direction.

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We did pull off a 24/16 day on 12/27/21 which was the coldest I’ve recorded in my weather records going back to 2005. Would be amazing to top that but we will see!

Just goes to show, when you get the right pattern during the coldest time of the year, it still gets d*mn cold.

[fubario]

6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Great trends continue!

Liking the looks of that SE ridge. It's getting beefy! 

[Seattle]

26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Euro has highs a hair above 20F. ICON and CMC share afternoon temps in the teens.

Don't worry, some Alaska 737 will send a little jet blast toward the sensor and bump the high by 4 degrees. I am still bitter about that. I definitely didn't drunkenly tweet at NWS Seattle about it...

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

20/13 on Thursday, wow