PNW December 2022 - Part II

[yellowstone]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

4.48?!?

 

[RentonHill]

GFS trying to go places in the long range??? I don’t even have any gifts to return yet!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

GFS trying to go places in the long range??? I don’t even have any gifts to return yet!!

Back to colder 850s and mountain snows. Nice.

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, yellowstone said:

4.48?!?

 

There is a spot on Pivotal where it’s 5.81”

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

-18c 850mb temp for SEA, -14c PDX

 

Unfortunately the UKMET sends that low way way south, into Northern California. The snow it shows over NW OR comes from the arctic front and possibly some deformation. Overall the UKMET has things looking incredibly suppressed. The payoff is that this leads to long lasting frigid conditions. 

Thursday is shaping up to be a very cold day here west of the Cascades.

 

[lowlandsnow]

14 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

-18c 850mb temp for SEA, -14c PDX

 

Unfortunately the UKMET sends that low way way south, into Northern California. The snow it shows over NW OR comes from the arctic front and possibly some deformation. Overall the UKMET has things looking incredibly suppressed. The payoff is that this leads to long lasting frigid conditions. 

What were the 850 temps last run?

[Terreboner]

He's coming guys, and I have a feeling he is going to deliver:

 

[Timmy]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thursday is shaping up to be a very cold day here west of the Cascades.

 

That’s like all time pdx high temp territory isn’t it?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This is pretty ridiculous for just 84 hours out:

GFS:

GEM:

ECMWF:

 

I can't remember the last time there was an airmass that cold making it that deep into the NE Pacific while we were also getting blasted down here. SSTs out there are still near 50F:

 

[Deweydog]

Interesting how the coldest solutions are a reverting to the 12z Euro on Tuesday which used the sharpening undercut ridge to helped the Arctic trough kick through like a clipper.

One way or another, a model is going to come out this looking like the GOAT.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

This is pretty ridiculous for just 84 hours out:

GFS:

GEM:

ECMWF:

 

I can't remember the last time there was an airmass that cold making it that deep into the NE Pacific while we were also getting blasted down here. SSTs out there are still near 50F:

 

Definitely pretty frustrating being so close to an event but just having no idea what’ll actually happen. Such little details mean huge shifts in what’ll happen. I know we say this every time but BIG euro run this evening. 

[MossMan]

Too bad this wasn’t all happening a few days later so Christmas could have been in the thick of the madness…Plus we would have had more days of model riding!!

[MossMan]

Down to 28. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Too bad this wasn’t all happening a few days later so Christmas could have been in the thick of the madness…Plus we would have had more days of model riding!!

Still time to change, maybe we somehow pull a 2008 and carry it right through to Christmas. If I recall the bulk of the cold/snow that year happened Dec 12/13~Dec 24 without much of a warmup.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After the icon I thought this would be an early night. But my god they just had a water main break in the basement of the election headquarters in Cobb county and we aren’t going to know the final results from Georgia until after the euro control finishes up. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Still time to change, maybe we somehow pull a 2008 and carry it right through to Christmas. If I recall the bulk of the cold/snow that year happened Dec 12/13~Dec 24 without much of a warmup.

Sometimes the models do end up just extending the cold on further and further than we expect. Overall even in the best solutions we warm up pretty quickly at the end of next week though so I don’t see this one sticking around long unfortunately…but sh*t who knows now after how horrible the consistency has been for a few days. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After the icon I thought this would be an early night. But my god they just had a water main break in the basement of the election headquarters in Cobb county and we aren’t going to know the final results from Georgia until after the euro control finishes up. 

If this busts hard, I bet it comes out that the GFS cloud seeded its way to victory and is the blast gets reinstated next August over Arizona.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After the icon I thought this would be an early night. But my god they just had a water main break in the basement of the election headquarters in Cobb county and we aren’t going to know the final results from Georgia until after the euro control finishes up. 

Ya, I'm going to grab some of my friends around 1 AM and stuff the computer models with GOA ridging.

[Deweydog]

…the GFS extends to January!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If this busts hard, I bet it comes out that the GFS cloud seeded its way to victory and is the blast gets reinstated next August over Arizona.

If we are torching in the low 50s next week I’m not going accept it and slander the GFS on live television and hold a joint press conference with the My Pillow guy. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we are torching in the low 50s next week I’m not going accept it and slander the GFS on live television and hold a joint press conference with the My Pillow guy. 

If you do it in January bring a jacket!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16 minutes ago, Timmy said:

That’s like all time pdx high temp territory isn’t it?

I’m not sure but I know December 1968 only had highs in the teens.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Sometimes the models do end up just extending the cold on further and further than we expect. Overall even in the best solutions we warm up pretty quickly at the end of next week though so I don’t see this one sticking around long unfortunately…but sh*t who knows now after how horrible the consistency has been for a few days. 

Not expecting this to last that long, but I will say that sometimes the models underestimate the stubbornness of dense Arctic air. If the ECMWF/GEM solution comes to fruition I wouldn't be surprised if the mid-late week systems are held back/desiccated. That's usually a bad scenario for getting a good overrunner but it would extend the duration of the modified Arctic airmass.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Still time to change, maybe we somehow pull a 2008 and carry it right through to Christmas. If I recall the bulk of the cold/snow that year happened Dec 12/13~Dec 24 without much of a warmup.

It’s very hazy now but I think around the 18th or so of that December the models were warming us up and switching over on Christmas Eve but that ended up getting delayed 2-3 days which gave us that heavy snowfall Christmas morning…So you never know! 

[Dave]

Wheelbarrow ice is at least an inch thick. Hopefully the Euro will throw a bone down here. I pretty much hate ice storms, but if that is all I can get, I'll take it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-15 at Foster Flat. They could make a run at -20 tonight as their dp is -22. Those high desert locals put up some insane lows. Horse Ridge out by Millican in extreme SE deshutes county hit -41 during the December 2013 BLAST. 

[Deweydog]

26 here!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

Wheelbarrow ice is at least an inch thick. Hopefully the Euro will throw a bone down here. I pretty much hate ice storms, but if that is all I can get, I'll take it.

How low can EUG go tonight? Looks like they are down to 25 on the latest 5 min obs. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-15 at Foster Flat. They could make a run at -20 tonight as their dp is -22. Those high desert locals put up some insane lows. Horse Ridge out by Millican in extreme SE deshutes county hit -41 during the December 2013 BLAST. 

A station at the bottom of Hole in the Ground would be interesting.

[Perturbed Member]

27F here. Loving the fake cold. 

[Meatyorologist]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Interesting how the coldest solutions are a reverting to the 12z Euro on Tuesday which used the sharpening undercut ridge to helped the Arctic trough kick through like a clipper.

One way or another, a model is going to come out this looking like the GOAT.

Was just thinking that. The PV lobe gets so suppressed that the shallow "blocking high" offshore does the job. But it's tenuous.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

A station at the bottom of Hole in the Ground would be interesting.

I need to get out there one of these days. 

[Meatyorologist]

00z Euro rolls out soon.

[Cold Snap]

Cliff Mass is like the GFS. Just doesn’t want to get onboard.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Was just thinking that. The PV lobe gets so suppressed that the shallow "blocking high" offshore does the job. But it's tenuous.

Extremely. It’s easy to see why any of the models could be considered out to lunch. Undercuts are usually pretty dynamic, the antithesis of a stable block. Can the ol’ salad tongas save us???

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How low can EUG go tonight? Looks like they are down to 25 on the latest 5 min obs. 

Probably super cold, especially since I never winterized the sprinkler system or even bothered to disconnect the hoses. 

[Jean Ralphios Ghost]

Question - is the control run in the ensembles the same run as the operational?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Extremely. It’s easy to see why any of the models could be considered out to lunch. Undercuts are usually pretty dynamic, the antithesis of a stable block. Can the ol’ salad tongas save us???

Climo would favor a more stung-north Arctic phront and a resulting weaker offshore push. But it's a close evolution and the GFS/ICON may be too extreme on the warm end.

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I need to get out there one of these days. 

Only way to get there is on gravel roads. Pretty remote corner of Central Oregon, seems like an easy place to get lost. Tried once and turned back.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z Euro rolls out soon.

Can't imagine it being any different from its 18Z run.   ECMWF does not swing wildly within 4 days.