PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Mid Valley Duck]

PDX highs Monday to Saturday

37-39-34-20-34-48

has there ever been a one day quick hitter like that?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Yeah that wasn’t a step at all towards the GFS. It was basically the same run as the 12z with some fluctuating temps at different times. The main difference was that was a very dry run for basically everyone 

My bad... I was basing it entirely off Andrew's comments as the run was coming out.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Modest chance the Night Shift 6z GFS completely caves to the Euro, or blend of the GEM/Ukmet/Euro.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

14 minutes ago, Parksvillewx said:

Wow, that's considerably less for us northerners.

I wouldn't worry too much about it up there. It's pretty common for the models to underdone localized snows. The 850mb temperatures and 500mb are plenty sufficient to drive strait-effect snow up there. Wouldn't be surprised if you end up with 10~15cm going into this if the ECMWF verifies, most likely Monday/Tuesday.

[gusky]

RIP cold for Christmas and after though.

[TacomaWx]

High temps here the next few days on the euro…this would be a significant blast if it verifies. 

40, 39, 31, 29, 24, 23, 40

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

PDX highs Monday to Saturday

37-39-34-20-34-48

has there ever been a one day quick hitter like that?

That would be unprecedented, but even the Euro overdoes outflow temps. Plus, just from an hour to hour basis, going from a high of 34 on Wednesday down to 20 by midnight would be pretty nutty unless the advection is accompanied by moisture to help the ambient temp chase the falling dew points. Best case scenario (GEM at the moment) is probably numbers in the 2004 range.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Deweydog

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

PDX highs Monday to Saturday

37-39-34-20-34-48

has there ever been a one day quick hitter like that?

February 1933 and January 1935 were pretty quick with the extreme cold, although the patterns lasted for awhile. January 1954 was similar as well with one extremely cold day in an extended cold/snow pattern.

[Jbolin]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I went out with my sons and their friends to bar tonight and they were making fun of me looking at weather models on my phone... so I explained the crazy uncertainty.    It was like I was speaking another language.    One of their friends said why not just wait until next week and whatever happens will happen.    Fools!   How can you live life without knowing precisely what the weather will do into the future.  

I think you two would've bonded better had you chosen to discuss ad nauseum the intricate nuances of how much it rained last week compared to normal.

It also could've gotten quite "heated" had you brung along some "printed out" drought monitor maps. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

4 minutes ago, gusky said:

RIP cold for Christmas and after though.

I honestly don't care too much about that time period, still lots of time for that to change.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Looking out further than I should, I find this interesting.  Day 10 on GFS and GEM

 

And now add the Euro to this also day 10

[Requiem]

Obviously way too far for details on any potential overrunning system but today's EURO run gives me vibes of December 8, 2016-- that one was also far wetter than modeled for some areas.

[snow_wizard]

Rather nippy ECMWF run!  4 consecutive max temps of 23 to 30 for SEA.

[Parksvillewx]

12 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I wouldn't worry too much about it up there. It's pretty common for the models to underdone localized snows. The 850mb temperatures and 500mb are plenty sufficient to drive strait-effect snow up there. Wouldn't be surprised if you end up with 10~15cm going into this if the ECMWF verifies, most likely Monday/Tuesday.

I'd love a good strait effect event. It's been a while since we've had ine locally.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

PDX highs Monday to Saturday

37-39-34-20-34-48

has there ever been a one day quick hitter like that?

Back to back EURO runs only showing a high of 20 for PDX on Thursday. At least we have some consistency there. Should be the coldest day next week.

[gusky]

3 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

I honestly don't care too much about that time period, still lots of time for that to change.

I really don't see that changing at all, though I hope I'm wrong. Big ol' ridge sets up right after and there is 0 sign of any more systems anytime after Thurs/Fri timeframe. 

[Iceresistance]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice day in NE Oklahoma too. @Iceresistance

It really was! Except for the cold and wind. 

[snow_wizard]

Big takeaways from the ECMWF.

1. It gets really cold

2. Still some snow shown for Tuesday in the Puget Sound area.

3. Very small window for freezing rain, and only a little bit shown. Phew!

4. If this verifies a top 10% cold December has a very good chance of happening.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile...we keep reeling off cold days.  Already down to 27 here.

[snow_wizard]

PDX already down to 28.  Pretty impressive how cold things have already gotten.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, Parksvillewx said:

I'd love a good strait effect event. It's been a while since we've had ine locally.

Did you get much snow with the systems late last month?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just finished a 15 hour shift. Looks like we may have a rug push!!!

[Deweydog]

BTW, tomorrow PDX starts its glorious 20 day run at its climatological coldest… 46/36

Edited December 17, 2022 by Deweydog

[TT-SEA]

Control run looks similar to the ECMWF now with snow totals... but much less than the 12Z run showed.

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS is drier so less snow for everyone 

[TT-SEA]

EPS mean snow totals... also about half of what the 12Z run showed.

But most of western WA should have snow on the ground during the cold.  

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

PDX already down to 28.  Pretty impressive how cold things have already gotten.

Already 26 here. Downright cold tonight. 

[TacomaWx]

34 here…temps been about the same for a couple hours. Should get into the 20s tomorrow morning though. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS mean snow totals... also about half of what the 12Z run showed.

It’s over. 

[snow_wizard]

SEA and BLI are only a few days away from heating degree days going above normal since July 1.  We have eaten up most of the excess warmth from July through October already.   Still have some excess cooling degree days to offset after the HDD is taken care of.

[TT-SEA]

Coldest point of the control run is straight up impressive... and colder than the 12Z run. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS mean at the same time... also a little colder than the 12Z run.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s over. 

Depends on what your definition of it is.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Coldest point of the control run is straight up impressive... and colder than the 12Z run. 

Cold 

[TacomaWx]

Really nice to see the euro and a couple other models didn’t fold tonight. 

[gusky]

Yeah EPS control wants to keep Seattle FRIGID for Thursday

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Coldest point of the control run is straight up impressive... and colder than the 12Z run. 

This looks like a grade A cold wave coming up.  We could be looking at a combined 9 freezing max temps for SEA for Dec 2021 and this one.

[Gradient Keeper]

How does the control run do now that we're inside that Day 4-5 window? It looks like the GEM to me.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs. Go fool somebody. 

[Gummy]

How much snow does the Euro show for the Friday system before the switch to freezing rain / rain.