PNW December 2022 - Part II

[TacomaWx]

Well while we wait for more clarity on Tuesday…the next 48 hours could be fairly interesting in western WA. Pretty good chance lots of people see flakes in the air/light snow accumulations…even outside the C-Zone and whatcom county. 

[Cloud]

The first act… will only expand

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About time to stick a fork in this one for folks south of Portland. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The 12z ICON and hi-res GEM are very good for Washington. That swath of QPF that was once aimed at the Willamette Valley has migrated north. As the low moves east and it says though Portland, it’s too warm and weak for more than some light cold rain. Brutal.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 12z ICON and hi-res GEM are very good for Washington. That swath of QPF that was once aimed at the Willamette Valley has migrated north. As the low moves east and it says though Portland, it’s too warm and weak for more than some light cold rain. Brutal.

The 6z Euro showed the northward migration as well. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Waiting for the 12Z ICON snow map on WB... but I can tell its going to be pretty ridiculous for the Seattle area.

 

RGEM looks similar. Big snowstorm for seattle

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 2 (4-run trend) Not seeing it. No changes.

[Cloud]

And with that, this run is over at day 2.5…NEXT

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 6z Euro showed the northward migration as well. 

Yep. It’s over. All we can do now is hope it keeps trending north.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 6z Euro showed the northward migration as well. 

I was really thinking yesterday the low was going to come in between tillamook and depoe bay and blast PDX. Now it’s looking more like Astoria. Huge bummer and it’s not settled up here yet either…could continue to go north but we will see. 

[Cloud]

Only 2 obvious options here at this point for the GFS…. VERY right or VERY wrong. No grey areas. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend) Meh

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is rock solid. 

[Deweydog]

GFS is rock solid.

[TT-SEA]

GFS did trend deeper for Tuesday morning...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

GFS did trend deeper for Tuesday morning...

 

It’s too late. 

[Cloud]

already massive differences 12 hours out. GEM is not gonna waver. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS is moving towards the ECMWF.  

And its much snowier to the north than previous runs on Tuesday.   Definite southward trend.

[Gradient Keeper]

The energy in the Pacific is too progressive shoving the ridge towards us.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah that 2nd lobe looks better, but may not dig southeast over us much. Clip eastern Washington.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS did trend deeper for Tuesday morning...

 

The low looks like it comes across western WA further south than the 06z. Looks like a slight step towards the euro and cmc. 

[TT-SEA]

That is a huge shift toward more digging on the 12Z GFS by Tuesday night.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend) Okay, that's better.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is moving towards the ECMWF.  

And its much snowier to the north than previous runs on Tuesday.   Definite southward trend.

Close to being a home run for Seattle. 50-100 miles more south…

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s too late. 

It's over

[Timmy]

Gfs is rock solid

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That is a huge shift toward more digging on the 12Z GFS by Tuesday night.   

Yeah colder air filters in behind the system Tuesday. I think the gfs is going to be onboard by the end of the day. It’s taken it’s sweet time but it has slowly been going the right direction 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 (4-run trend) Okay, that's better.

Caved

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is way colder for Wednesday... the 00Z run had upper 30s in Seattle that afternoon.    This is a huge shift.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Cloud said:

Caved

It was doing a slow cave. Trying to hide its shittiness from everyone. Probably a built in feature. 

[Brennan]

GFS rocks Whatcom County tomorrow morning and Tuesday night LETS GOOO!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 if that ridge is held back a bit we would see a major blast.

[Cloud]

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is very close to what the 00Z ECMWF showed for Wednesday afternoon.    The differences are not that significant.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is way colder for Wednesday... the 00Z run had upper 30s in Seattle that afternoon.    This is a huge shift.

Wow my takeaway is how warm it is PDX south. Yet another soul crushing event for the cursed. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s too late. 

Your weiner is showing

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It was doing a slow cave. Trying to hide its shittiness from everyone. Probably a built in feature. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Big backdoor blast!

[The Cats Meow]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow my takeaway is how warm it is PDX south. Yet another soul crushing event for the cursed. 

Are you going to be okay?

Still plenty of time for things to slip south.