PNW December 2022 - Part II

[MossMan]

Took a walk about a mile down my road to post lol! Drizzle stopped! Feels like late December climo! The smiley face stump is where the Bears like to cross. Don’t see any today. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Why not add an 80mph wind gust to North Bend this winter…WOW 

It's not like there hasn't been wind there already too.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Yeah, looks like an east wind event later in the week. Sorry if someone explained already, but what’s with the “fake cold” on the east side this coming week? 

Persistent easterly surface gradients causing cold air damming.

[Hawksfan2008]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not like there hasn't been wind there already too.

Yeah I can’t imagine the damage that would do with so many trees already weak. Hopefully trends down. 

[TacomaWx]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 2013 and 16 were probably more anomalously cold down here, so

it evens out in time. 
 

The gradient is more Seattle north. Olympia will end up barely below average too. 

We will finish -2F this month…kinda similar to December 2021 this month where the cold got to Tacoma but kinda stalled out between here and OLM. We were a couple degrees colder in 2022 and 2021 than OLM. 

[TacomaWx]

18 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Why not add an 80mph wind gust to North Bend this winter…WOW 

That’s stampede gap winds there rushing to Tacoma. They’re often really underdone here usually…and we typically get slammed here on the hill above commencement bay in north end. One of my favorite occurrences at my location is the east wind funneling down through bonney lake all the way here in these set ups. 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Yeah I can’t imagine the damage that would do with so many trees already weak. Hopefully trends down. 

Another way to look at it is the weak trees and branches have already been weeded out.

As always there's a ton of uncertainty exactly how that is going to play out.

[Deweydog]

30 years ago right now it was SNOWING outside.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We will finish -2F this month…kinda similar to December 2021 this month where the cold got to Tacoma but kinda stalled out between here and OLM. We were a couple degrees colder in 2022 and 2021 than OLM. 

I'll end up about -3.  I think your normal is kind of low due to a lot of cold Decembers in the 2008 - 2022 period.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

30 years ago right now it was SNOWING outside.

Late Dec / early Jan 1992/93 was pretty decent.

[Doinko]

Second coldest Nov/Dec on record at Burns this year, after 1985

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll end up about -3.  I think your normal is kind of low due to a lot of cold Decembers in the 2008 - 2022 period.

Coldest November + December at SeaTac since 1985, pretty impressive. 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll end up about -3.  I think your normal is kind of low due to a lot of cold Decembers in the 2008 - 2022 period.

I’ve compared my 2005-2022 averages at my location to the 1991-2020 averages…and yeah decembers definitely been on the chilly side. December and February have been killing it while January doesn’t even know how to actually act like January anymore. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

That’s stampede gap winds there rushing to Tacoma. They’re often really underdone here usually…and we typically get slammed here on the hill above commencement bay in north end. One of my favorite occurrences at my location is the east wind funneling down through bonney lake all the way here in these set ups. 

Not sure what to make of that wind gust map.   I was not expecting anything like that this week.   The sustained wind speeds at that time look more reasonable and focused to the south of North Bend which definitely means Stampede Pass as opposed to Snoqualmie Pass.

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of that wind gust map.   I was not expecting anything like that this week.   The sustained wind speeds at that time look more reasonable and focused to the south of North Bend which definitely means Stampede Pass as opposed to Snoqualmie Pass.

Enumclaw. 

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of that wind gust map.   I was not expecting anything like that this week.   The sustained wind speeds at that time look more reasonable and focused to the south of North Bend which definitely means Stampede Pass as opposed to Snoqualmie Pass.

We’ve had east wind set ups similar to this in February 2019, October 2019 and September 2020 deliver 40-55mph gusts here. I don’t think there will be 60-80mph gusts in the EPSL but it could be strong. 

[Requiem]

As mentioned a couple pages back-- definitely an interesting setup for powerful easterlies and nearly every model shows it. EURO at face value shunts gusts 60-70 into the Battle Ground area-- I have never seen such a strong output from any model regarding easterlies, even before powerful events such as September 2020.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

As mentioned a couple pages back-- definitely an interesting setup for powerful easterlies and nearly every model shows it. EURO at face value shunts gusts 60-70 into the Battle Ground area-- I have never seen such a strong output from any model regarding easterlies, even before powerful events such as September 2020.

I didn't even realize the potential for strong wind. That should be fun
 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Requiem said:

As mentioned a couple pages back-- definitely an interesting setup for powerful easterlies and nearly every model shows it. EURO at face value shunts gusts 60-70 into the Battle Ground area-- I have never seen such a strong output from any model regarding easterlies, even before powerful events such as September 2020.

Pretty classic mountain wave signature. 

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Enumclaw. 

North Bend is usually spared when Enumclaw is being hit hard by the east wind.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thought this was interesting. They got 50” of snow this week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 minutes ago, Requiem said:

As mentioned a couple pages back-- definitely an interesting setup for powerful easterlies and nearly every model shows it. EURO at face value shunts gusts 60-70 into the Battle Ground area-- I have never seen such a strong output from any model regarding easterlies, even before powerful events such as September 2020.

Can you post a map that shows NW Oregon? We got hammered in September 2020. Easterlies are rare here, but when they happen they can be quite damaging. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thought this was interesting. They got 50” of snow this week. 

Not surprised. Bachelor has been getting dumped on big.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can you post a map that shows NW Oregon? We got hammered in September 2020. Easterlies are rare here, but when they happen they can be quite damaging. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Omg that would be horrible. 

[T-Town]

Nice to get some sun today. 

[Omegaraptor]

With today’s incredible rainfall numbers in CA I do have to wonder why PDX’s all time one-day rain record is only 2.69”. Is it a terrain thing? I know PDX is a shadowed location but it seems a bit weird compared to other West Coast cities.

In fact I think Las Vegas is the only major city with a lower record. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dot is my approximate location. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

 

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nice to get some sun today. 

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

With today’s incredible rainfall numbers in CA I do have to wonder why PDX’s all time one-day rain record is only 2.69”. Is it a terrain thing? I know PDX is a shadowed location but it seems a bit weird compared to other West Coast cities.

I was thinking the same thing. SEA's is 5.02" and they average a similar amount. EUG's is 4.89". Hillsboro's is also 3.40"

[SouthHillFrosty]

@snow_wizard

 

[snow_wizard]

Man I hate this pattern.  It just refuses to clear out and keeps finding ways to get drippy.  At least the ECMWF is more bullish on frost early next week.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@snow_wizard

 

Somebody said it was snowing at 34 degrees.  Obviously the light and fluffy mention means it got colder or this is a higher elevation.  I'm glad for them.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

I was thinking the same thing. SEA's is 5.02" and they average a similar amount. EUG's is 4.89". Hillsboro's is also 3.40"

I think Justin commented on this once and said PDX has had a few events that were split between two different days so the daily totals got watered down.  Not sure what their record for any 24 hour period is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Somebody said it was snowing at 34 degrees.  Obviously the light and fluffy mention means it got colder or this is a higher elevation.  I'm glad for them.

Higher elevation. 

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of that wind gust map.   I was not expecting anything like that this week.   The sustained wind speeds at that time look more reasonable and focused to the south of North Bend which definitely means Stampede Pass as opposed to Snoqualmie Pass.

The rule of thumb is when the low is south of Raymond or so the winds are worse out of the Stampede Pass gap and when it's north of there they are worse for the North Bend area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Check it out… 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KTVL

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Check it out… 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KTVL

That's what I call getting crushed.  Very interesting to see everything so suppressed this season.  Too bad being north of all of this isn't equaling cold for us though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's what I call getting crushed.  Very interesting to see everything so suppressed this season.  Too bad being north of all of this isn't equaling cold for us though.

Looks like they stopped reporting around 4p. 

[snow_wizard]

Really strong signal for the last week of January on the GEFS extended.