PNW December 2022 - Part II

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

No, it's obviously grasping at paws. It's what you do when the models are questionable or you're just being a weenie--you grasp at paws so the therapy puppy doesn't get away. 

 

[Requiem]

Somewhat strong signal for an interesting downslope-type east wind event as that strong low meanders offshore midweek. EURO is particularly bullish, but all models are showing it to some extent. Would at the very least be something to keep an eye on-- taken at face value the EURO shows screaming easterlies from King County down to Ashland.

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Night shift?

Yes, I just got done with the physical work.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like some pretty decent torching is starting to show up in the Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like some pretty decent torching is starting to show up in the Euro.

Wouldn’t be January without it . 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z gfs trying to go somewhere at the end. 

[TT-SEA]

@hawkstwelve I see you are online this morning... the 06Z ECMWF puts you right in the bullseye on Monday/Tuesday!   How much snow have you had this winter so far?    This would be pretty memorable if it works out.

 

[ShawniganLake]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

06z gfs trying to go somewhere at the end. 

Couple of hits to the PV. The one near the end could be a death blow  

 

[MikeInEverett]

6 years ago today.. it’s fun looking back at old model porn lol. This was 192 hours out at the time!

[Guest hawkstwelve]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

@hawkstwelve I see you are online this morning... the 06Z ECMWF puts you right in the bullseye on Monday/Tuesday!   How much snow have you had this winter so far?    This would be pretty memorable if it works out.

 

Yeah looking at a good potential of a strong winter storm for Monday/Tuesday. Some of the model outputs are crazy, calling for 12-15+ inches within about 24 hours. I've been hesitant to accept the solutions yet (years of last minute rug pulls in the PNW are still affecting my psyche) but the Euro and EPS have remained steadfast so I'm starting to get excited.

FSD has officially reported 19.4 inches this month, more than double our usual 8.7 in December. With November's 2.5 inches and recording a couple inches more than FSD, I'm sitting around 2 feet total snowfall for MBY this season. Obviously some melting and compacting has taken place so we don't have that much on the ground, probably closer to 5-7 inches or so on average.

NWS FSD posted that this has been a 'severe' to 'extreme' winter so far, even before we get the big storm on Monday/Tuesday. Guess I picked a good year to move here!

Edit: 12z Euro shows over 20 inches here. Holy shmokes.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still ends up a cold month in Burns. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Quiet morning on the forums. 

[Terreboner]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Quiet morning on the forums. 

It's the pre-New Years Eve hangover for the New Years Eve hangover that precedes the New Years Day hangover that precedes the post New Years hangover that precedes the "Fukk this week, I will do real work next week" hangover.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@AlTahoe Looks like 24 hour precip ending at 4am was 2.75” at South Lake Tahoe. Switched over to snow about 5am, another 1” of precip since 4a too. Going to be a snowy week in your neck of the woods. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

It's the pre-New Years Eve hangover for the New Years Eve hangover that precedes the New Years Day hangover that precedes the post New Years hangover that precedes the "Fukk this week, I will do real work next week" hangover.

Weather never takes a week off. 

[TacomaWx]

Some final 2022 calendar year stats. 
Max high temp-95        JAN -0.1F

Min high temp-25         FEB -0.5F

min temp-19                 MAR +1.3F

snowfall-6.3”                APR -2.8F

rainfall YTD-40.68”      MAY -3.4F

sub 40 highs-17           JUN -0.1F

sub freezing highs-2   JUL +2.4F

+80 highs-32               AUG +3.3F

+90 highs-7                 SEP   +2.6F

-32 lows-36                 OCT   +3.3F

1”+ daily rains-5           NOV  -4.2F

Wettest day-3.20”       DEC  -2.0F

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weather never takes a week off. 

Neither does my liver.

[Terreboner]

Something to talk about.  We missed a decent snow last night by about 2-3 degrees here.  Pretty heavy precip for a good 6 hours but it cut off by the time the temp got there.  Looking at the hills surrounding us, we missed it by about 300' elevation.  

[Terreboner]

28 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

It's the pre-New Years Eve hangover for the New Years Eve hangover that precedes the New Years Day hangover that precedes the post New Years hangover that precedes the "Fukk this week, I will do real work next week" hangover.

Downvote, really?? LOL

[LowerGarfield]

16 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In general, the more rural an area the less reliable the electric service. When I lived on Bainbridge Island, I had the electric range my place came with replaced with a propane one (it already had a propane heater in the living room). I would never want to live in a rural, all-electric house with no generator backup (and you would be surprised how many such homes there are, with no transfer switch or anything).

Makes me even happier to live where I do. As the lowlands go, my area is one of the snowier ones. Plus I’m in an established urban neighbourhood with reliable electric service. (Ditto for Bellingham when I lived there.)

We bought a generator for about $750 USD two years ago and have not had to use it yet despite being in a windy place in a rural area.

My parents camped for one day but had to go home from big Sur early because one of their fancy tents started ponding water and leaking through. They look the long way back yesterday to avoid driving back in today's rainstorm.

[T-Town]

49 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Some final 2022 calendar year stats. 
Max high temp-95        JAN -0.1F

Min high temp-25         FEB -0.5F

min temp-19                 MAR +1.3F

snowfall-6.3”                APR -2.8F

rainfall YTD-40.68”      MAY -3.4F

sub 40 highs-17           JUN -0.1F

sub freezing highs-2   JUL +2.4F

+80 highs-32               AUG +3.3F

+90 highs-7                 SEP   +2.6F

-32 lows-36                 OCT   +3.3F

1”+ daily rains-5           NOV  -4.2F

Wettest day-3.20”       DEC  -2.0F

Thanks for posting this. The May departure really stands out. I kind of forgot how cool it was. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wouldn’t be January without it . 

Interesting how the West side is torching, but over here and in Eastern Oregon temps look to be normal.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

It has been very PNW-like down here. Endlessly overcast with periods of light rain in between stronger storms.

No thanks, you can have it back. At least the overcast days between storms.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

22 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

We bought a generator for about $750 USD two years ago and have not had to use it yet despite being in a windy place in a rural area.

My parents camped for one day but had to go home from big Sur early because one of their fancy tents started ponding water and leaking through. They look the long way back yesterday to avoid driving back in today's rainstorm.

I think generator sales will take a big jump over here.  During the coldest day in Leavenworth, temps got down to -10 and the energy demand was so high that an underground transformer melted.  That caused an outage for almost a full day for hundreds of homes south of downtown, during the coldest day in decades. 

Also many of those homes had major problems with water, as some rely on water pumps to deliver water, especially those with multiple buildings on their property, and when those went down, the water was unable to flow and froze in the pipes.  It was a real nightmare for a lot of people. 

I'm in city limits and didn't have any problems.

[TacomaWx]

15 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Thanks for posting this. The May departure really stands out. I kind of forgot how cool it was. 

May felt very chilly too because it had been over a decade since there was one this far below normal. November this year was by far the most anomalous month this year. The biggest negative departure month since February 2019 came in at -7.1F. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

40 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

We bought a generator for about $750 USD two years ago and have not had to use it yet despite being in a windy place in a rural area.

My parents camped for one day but had to go home from big Sur early because one of their fancy tents started ponding water and leaking through. They look the long way back yesterday to avoid driving back in today's rainstorm.

Not a ton of trees out that way though. When I lived in Oklahoma it was always extremely windy, but the only time we had an extensive power outage was when we had an ice storm. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t have my stats in front of me, but I do know April was colder than March here, and it came in very close to February, but I don’t think quite as cold. February was pretty mild overall, but that cold snap was pretty good here, we had a 32/15 day with it. 

[Terreboner]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t have my stats in front of me, but I do know April was colder than March here, and it came in very close to February, but I don’t think quite as cold. February was pretty mild overall, but that cold snap was pretty good here, we had a 32/15 day with it. 

Sucks that we can't get an epic pattern to save our life during low sun angles.  I'm sure we will get the perfect setup in March again and the longer days and higher sun angles will kill us.  Yawn.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like it's 46F out there with some clouds and expected to be close to a +5F or warmer avg, which will bring us close to a positive temp departure on the month. We are currently -0.3F.

Thank god we got that almost 6-year sub-freezing high monkey off our back though. Seriously, I'm very grateful.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

We bought a generator for about $750 USD two years ago and have not had to use it yet despite being in a windy place in a rural area.

My parents camped for one day but had to go home from big Sur early because one of their fancy tents started ponding water and leaking through. They look the long way back yesterday to avoid driving back in today's rainstorm.

We live in an area that traditionally has a reliable power grid, but it has been a little more shaky in recent years, probably due to all of the growth.  We do not have a secondary heat source, so I finally pulled the trigger on a generator before the storm last December to power the blower on my gas furnace.  I got a Honda Generator (1800 or 2300 W model) for about $1,200 or so.

I didn't use it then, but I did have to use it this past summer on a very warm rainy day after an equipment failure in the grid left us without power for about 8 hours.  The fridge got up into the low 40's so I fired up the generator to get it cooled back down.

 

[awright-31]

52/41 here yesterday, 0.11" gust 19mph.

Got down to 40 this morning, 45 now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like it's 46F out there with some clouds and expected to be close to a +5F or warmer avg, which will bring us close to a positive temp departure on the month. We are currently -0.3F.

Thank god we got that almost 6-year sub-freezing high monkey off our back though. Seriously, I'm very grateful.

Salem will end up with around a -0.5 departure. It will be around -1 up here. Still about a degree cooler than last December, which was actually above average for SLE. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wasn’t expecting it to rain the entire

morning. But here we are. This little band has been training over us since about 8am. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wasn’t expecting it to rain the entire

morning. But here we are. This little band has been training over us since about 8am. 

What's your temp?  Still only 36 here which is surprising.  I'm hoping we can get a quick inch with Monday's little 3 or 4 hour episode.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

What's your temp?  Still only 36 here which is surprising.  I'm hoping we can get a quick inch with Monday's little 3 or 4 hour episode.

It’s about 40. 

[Ray]

I've had a super reliable Honda EM5000SX generator for about 5 years now.  The house that I am in has a pump for the septic system and that was my main driver for getting one.  I have natural gas heat and hot water so there are no big electric draws other than the stove.  My prior house had a generator transfer switch which worked well but only ran certain circuits.  For this house the electrician encouraged me to go a different route.  This route has a lockout for the main and back feeds through a couple of spare breaker locations in my box.  There is a little device that does not allow the main and the breakers from the generator to be connected at the same time.  This allows me to feed power to all if the house.  I just have to use some common sense about what I am running at one time so I don't overload the generator.  For my situation it works pretty well as I live alone and don't have to worry about a wife or kids turning too many things on at once.  

[snow_wizard]

Somebody needs to put that temperature sensor at Hoquiam out of its misery.  It's showing a ridiculous 66 right now.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Ray said:

I've had a super reliable Honda EM5000SX generator for about 5 years now.  The house that I am in has a pump for the septic system and that was my main driver for getting one.  I have natural gas heat and hot water so there are no big electric draws other than the stove.  My prior house had a generator transfer switch which worked well but only ran certain circuits.  For this house the electrician encouraged me to go a different route.  This route has a lockout for the main and back feeds through a couple of spare breaker locations in my box.  There is a little device that does not allow the main and the breakers from the generator to be connected at the same time.  This allows me to feed power to all if the house.  I just have to use some common sense about what I am running at one time so I don't overload the generator.  For my situation it works pretty well as I live alone and don't have to worry about a wife or kids turning too many things on at once.  

Your septic system isn't gravity driven.  Weird!

[Omegaraptor]

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wouldn’t be January without it . 

Our ceiling in January is the 1981-2010 average.

[snow_wizard]

Not much to be said about the current pattern.  We will just have to wait it out for a while.  At least it won't be a torch and the next week looks somewhat dry.  Maybe enough breaks to get a cold night or two.

Given the big picture another round of winter seems quite likely going forward.