Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[BMT]

is this thing really going to come full circle

[gosaints]

Full circle?  That would seem unlikely and I wouldnt by any trend until the clock gets to the euro tonight 

[Madtown]

Can anyone get the 18z euro?

[chances14]

The wind aspect of this storm is what's most intriguing to me. Have had several double digit snowstorms but the high winds combined with the snow is not something we get very often around here.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Full circle?  That would seem unlikely and I wouldnt by any trend until the clock gets to the euro tonight 

Full circle also sort of depends what is being talked about.  Remember those crazy west/extremely snowy GFS runs.  That's not going to happen at this point, but smaller changes to something more impressive are definitely possible.

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, chances14 said:

The wind aspect of this storm is what's most intriguing to me. Have had several double digit snowstorms but the high winds combined with the snow is not something we get very often around here.

It's not something that's really happened here in quite a long time.  I'm trying to explain this to non weather people around me that think 8-12" of snow isn't a big deal.  The Blizzard of 78' "only" dropped 16.1" in GR.  And that was with a cold lake.  Accumulations don't matter Friday/Saturday.  The winds do.  

[Bumblin Bman09]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Full circle also sort of depends what is being talked about.  Remember those crazy west/extremely snowy GFS runs.  That's not going to happen at this point, but smaller changes to something more impressive are definitely possible.

Im not buying the upped totals off of that run.  I would love 6-10" near the WI border but I think we're closing to 3-6".  Time will tell.

[Hoosier]

If anyone around Chicago remembers the Jan 5, 2014 storm and its aftermath, that's sort of what I'd expect this to be like.  Except more of the snow will fall with temps in the single digits or even below zero this time.  Roads were absolute trash back then even well after the storm ended.

[gosaints]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If anyone around Chicago remembers the Jan 5, 2014 storm and its aftermath, that's sort of what I'd expect this to be like.  Except more of the snow will fall with temps in the single digits or even below zero this time.  Roads were absolute trash back then even well after the storm ended.

Oh the roads are going to be horrendous.  Last night 2 inches in that cold cause many accidents and people know how to drive around here. 

 

[bud2380]

23 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Can anyone get the 18z euro?

Doesn’t run for about 2 hours yet. 

[Money]

Hmmm

GFS back to 15-20 inches here 

[Hoosier]

I can't overstate how absurd it would be if the low actually deepens by 8 mb in 3 hours.  That is almost unheard of at that latitude and not over a body of water.

 

[Ottawa CO, MI]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

One thing to remember.  The lakes are much warmer right now, than when these storms typically occur.  Not sure how much the models are taking that into account in the snow belts.  That amount of wind and cold air and moisture, really makes me wonder how much snow we get.   I was forecasted for 4-8" last week and ended up with 15.  No model had more than 6"   Models still really struggle with snowfall amounts to this day.  Makes more sense to go with your gut and good old fashioned common sense meteorology.   

 

Very good point...

[indianajohn]

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I can't overstate how absurd it would be if the low actually deepens by 8 mb in 3 hours.  That is almost unheard of at that latitude and not over a body of water.

 

[Andie]

From a high tomorrow of 52 North Texas will plunge to a low of 9 Thursday night with a chance of flurries. 
Winds gusting over 40 mph.  
Thursdays low will be sitting at 9. 
Christmas Eve will bring us a low of 23 and high Christmas of 44.  
Quite an introduction for Christmas!

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

Ha.  Of course.

Not a question of whether it will bomb out.  The devil is in the details of that and there's still a good amount of model variance as to just how far south that process begins.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

RS

Both NAM and GFS look a bit off in their handling of the short wave rounding the base of the trof, they seem to be trying to develop the eventual low out of the leading wave and trof in place ahead of the energy and they suppress the short wave as a sort of last piece of energy for the southeast U.S. cold front. I think earlier model runs may have had a better depiction with the energy rounding the base of the trof deepening over MO and IL rather than this concept of the low forming in IN and moving to MI. Either way all of the expectations for MI, sw ON, wNY snow belts would verify but there may be a better (worse for public) outcome for WI and IL, maybe even IA and MO. Later model runs (perhaps starting with 12z Euro) may start to drift back to the earlier more intense solutions. I can't see how the overperforming start here would translate into a weaker short wave rounding the base after DEN gets a brief blizzard tonight and Wed a.m., would expect a snowstorm to develop in OK and s KS as the low drops into Texas. I think it will stay more of a dominant feature rather than getting absorbed into some developing low way out ahead of the main energy.

I sure hope whoever wrote that is right.  Right now it looks like 3-5 for mby which is great leading into Christmas, but I'm greedy and I want more.

[Tony]

Almost certain there will be changes that will make you think twice about this storm system. Models never cease to amaze me that 24-36 hours out how they can do a 180-degree turnaround. Live n die with model watching is what we live for on this forum. It' a hobby that sucks you in and then spits you out. Grab a spiced egg nog and get ready for the next ride because it's only a couple hours away. Cheers everyone!

[jaster220]

37 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I sure hope whoever wrote that is right.  Right now it looks like 3-5 for mby which is great leading into Christmas, but I'm greedy and I want more.

We ALL want more! cept maybe @Stacsh 

For my prior address. Just can't read these words often enough.

 

[bud2380]

18z Euro

[Clinton]

Not a lot of change with the 18z Euro it does lift some higher totals over mby and close to KC

 

[jaster220]

Remember some of the early weenie runs. Thinking it was the GEM showing it snowing 54 hrs and I said "easy toss", lol. Now GRR's Watch is for 51 hrs and would not be surprised to see a portion of it extended in LES regions. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

We ALL want more! cept maybe @Stacsh 

For my prior address. Just can't read these words often enough.

 

Whether I get 3 inches or 8 inches its going to be blown into piles.  It should be quite the show here when it blows through, wide open and no obstructions where I live.

[winterfreak]

Wonder if EAX will go with a warning or an advisory…

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Wonder if EAX will go with a warning or an advisory…

I think warning because of the wind and viabilities even if the accumulations are under warning level. 

[winterfreak]

Just now, Clinton said:

I think warning because of the wind and viabilities even if the accumulations are under warning level. 

I concur. Probably tomorrow morning.

[Clinton]

Further east view of the 18z Euro

QPF:

[Stacsh]

22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

We ALL want more! cept maybe @Stacsh 

For my prior address. Just can't read these words often enough.

 

I’ll be at 80 percent of total snowfall average for the season after this. Before Xmas 

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I’ll be at 80 percent of total snowfall average for the season after this. Before Xmas 

I sit at 5% attm

[jaster220]

Cut to the chase writing style in IWX's afd, but yeah it is not something you read very often.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

...Winter Storm Watch Continues...

Sharp/full-latitudinal ridge from Eastern Pacific ridge to 5700m
anchor north of Bering Straight with immediate downstream 5030m
northern Nunavut cyclone. Southward energy transfer into broad
southern Canadian trough that rapidly deepens into primary system
that drives southeast and loops through southern Indiana Friday
morning before lifting north towards James Bay by F120 25/00 UTC.
At lower levels broad GOMEX feed with 30 knot moist conveyor feed
tapping Atlantic moisture off Carolinas. 12 UTC coming in line
with EC bodes well for incremental confidence increase.

Some concern with precipitation type on Thursday over far northwest
CWA. Any initial snow at onset followed by increasing dynamic
column cooling and already shallow warm wetbulb layer, could prove
difficult to mix/changeover to all rain during the day.
Fortunately initial onset intensity appears light, awaiting better
moisture flux convergence Thursday evening. Changeover with flash
freeze certain as intense/bomb frontal wave tracks northeast
through southeast third CWA Thursday evening/early night. 5g/kg
1000-850mb airmass lap into southeast CWA. I285 surface with
strong ascent drawing moisture north, then wrapping into counter-
clockwise trowal across southern Michigan counties on Friday.
Wrapped moisture within collocated trowal to likely maintain
moderate to occasionally heavy snow/blowing snow with
blizzard/near blizzard conditions, especially over
northwest/northern CWA on Friday. Peak gradient/katabatic flow
during the daytime hours Friday with NBM gusts to near 50 mph and
suspect a few higher outliers on/near lakeshore. Significant
blowing/drifting, especially on north/south oriented roads, to
make holiday travel extremely treacherous throughout entire CWA.
WCI M15- M30 Friday through Saturday adds additional hazard to
this major winter storm.

Lake enhancement Friday as cold air deepens favors highest
amounts in lake effect region. LES continues Friday night into
Saturday with substantial additional amounts likely. Synoptic
plus LES storm totals to 18 inches Berrien/Cass counties within
realm of potential outcomes owing to large lake induced thermal
instability for latter part of event. LES SLR not expected to be
extreme though given too cold for DGZ layer and substantial
shredding within 30-40 knot west- northwest cloud bearing flow.
Still, multiday totals easily in excess of a foot, corroborated by
SREF plume means through 7 pm Friday of 12/17 inches at
KSBN/KBEH, respectively.

[Stacsh]

Grr mention 15-1 or 20-1 ratios

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I sure hope whoever wrote that is right.  Right now it looks like 3-5 for mby which is great leading into Christmas, but I'm greedy and I want more.

I feel the same way here, I would be happy with 3-5” of snow that is forecasted here - however this system is going to leave me wanting lots more. This system once again proves why following every single run of the models 3+ days out from a storm is mostly pointless and bound to leave us disappointed most of the time.
 

[Black Hole]

Only real change over the last couple of days has been the trend towards lower snow amounts and slightly warmer temperatures. Probably going to bottom out 0-5F with 1/2-2" of snow in Tulsa. Main story will be the wind chills, those are still going to be -15 to -20F. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Can anyone get the 18z euro?

Absolute Mitt Crusher. Another State of Emergency declaration possible like in '78 if this is happens:

 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Probably more realistic.  Still a massive storm

Notice any similarities?

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Further east view of the 18z Euro

QPF:

 

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Further east view of the 18z Euro

QPF:

East is the way this thing wants to go. Looks fantastic!

[Niko]

18z Euro is a beautiful hit for Detroit. It crushes the area.

 

Could we be looking at this:

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Notice any similarities?

The end product of this actually looks quite similar to the 1978 storm, even though it gets there in a different way.  

Don't be fooled by the higher surface low pressure this time.  The surface high is much stronger for this storm, so the pressure gradient actually ends up being similar in magnitude to the 1978 storm.  I'm not going to predict 100+ mph winds on Lake Erie, but overall the wind footprint should be similar.

[shakjen]

I guess it’s on to the next “”blizzard”” for Illinois. Models were way wrong for totals and timing 24 hours ago. 

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The end product of this actually looks quite similar to the 1978 storm, even though it gets there in a different way.  

Don't be fooled by the higher surface low pressure this time.  The surface high is much stronger for this storm, so the pressure gradient actually ends up being similar in magnitude to the 1978 storm.  I'm not going to predict 100+ mph winds on Lake Erie, but overall the wind footprint should be similar.

Great points. Almost forgot about the pressure delta being the ultimate deciding factor.