Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 This has to be one of the best pictures taken of a sprite that I have ever seen! It looks freaky awesome...like the God's from above are speaking to the earthlings below. Imagine what our ancestors thought these were 1000's of years ago when this knowledge wasn't available. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 I also turned on my heater. If we get even two degrees colder than what is expected tonight, we could be looking at a few snowflakes mixing in with rain here in Lincoln overnight. I am thinking we hit 50 tomorrow, which is normal for November 16. My cat is not happy that I closed the windows. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 I also turned on my heater. If we get even two degrees colder than what is expected tonight, we could be looking at a few snowflakes mixing in with rain here in Lincoln overnight. I am thinking we hit 50 tomorrow, which is normal for November 16. My cat is not happy that I closed the windows.Had 56F at 1pm on August 24th, and you wonder why I was already in full-on autumn mode? :-|:-P Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Had a thunderstorm and 39 driving home from work. Lots of lightning. I like how it's setting up with the Colorado lows. If this trend continues through winter I think everybody in the forum will be pretty excited. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Gorgeous day today....warm and not too uncomfortable. Absolutely gorgeous. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 75° right now at house.Crazy stuff. I topped out at 84.1F today. Record was 86F. Almost tied the record.... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 A little rain coming for Wednesday and then, the warmth returns with abundant sun. Weekend temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Im down to 47 already. Wasnt expecting that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 This is awesome...it's becoming more common as we approach the Grand Solar Minimum....Red Sprites seen coming out of the sky near Edmond, OK last night... That's a beautiful picture man. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 00z Euro still with a widespread soaker for the Midwest/Lakes today/tomorrow...what a beautiful looking map and the uniform "spread the wealth" is about as ideal as you can get from the Plains to the Lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 00z Euro still with a wound up storm this weekend while the GFS is sheared out. Who wins? BTW, the Euro is flashing a rain/snow mix near SW MN/MSP/NW WI on Sun/Sun night. That falls on the dead line of the "First Flake contest"...may need to make some adjustments to the deadline if this trend continues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 I'm starting to think there may be some record-low highs out in KS/MO/NE/IA region where the coldest anomalies will be setting up today as the defo band takes shape in the systems cold core. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 @ Euro maps 48 hr shows upwards of 1.5" for Marshall, yet Intellicast maps which are usually spot on in the winter for snow aren't showing rain over mby. Not one single incremental map does. Keeps all the real rain just south and looks like a miss. This would be a major disappointment if it plays out like that. They have the SLP tracking along the OH River vs over KIND which is mby's preferred track for heavy events. Gonna be watching this closely as a clue for winter. While snow often reaches further north from the surface LP than rainfall does, this will be a good test of my main concern on the winter storm track. Mainly, that it could end up like 2012-13 when it was one wx zone south of us, bringing S IL and IN that near bliz in late December. Then the weekend system per CPC hits Chicago, but misses me to the north. Don't want to fret over this so early in the new LRC, but unlike SENE peeps, I'm still waiting to get my first real soaker system. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 @ Tom To my post above, have you run across any maps showing Marshall under the rain shield from either of these (2) systems? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 @ Euro maps 48 hr shows upwards of 1.5" for Marshall, yet Intellicast maps which are usually spot on in the winter for snow aren't showing rain over mby. Not one single incremental map does. Keeps all the real rain just south and looks like a miss. This would be a major disappointment if it plays out like that. They have the SLP tracking along the OH River vs over KIND which is mby's preferred track for heavy events. Gonna be watching this closely as a clue for winter. While snow often reaches further north from the surface LP than rainfall does, this will be a good test of my main concern on the winter storm track. Mainly, that it could end up like 2012-13 when it was one wx zone south of us, bringing S IL and IN that near bliz in late December. Then the weekend system per CPC hits Chicago, but misses me to the north. Don't want to fret over this so early in the new LRC, but unlike SENE peeps, I'm still waiting to get my first real soaker system. I wouldn't pay so much attention to the exact locations of the track/precip totals/etc at this point. What I like seeing is a storm track nearby because that gives our region a "chance" of tracking a winter storm in future cycles and it will depend on how much blocking/strength the system encounters to justify a track in future cycles as the jet intensifies. I'm just glad to see that pretty much all the models are in agreement for our first widespread soaker. You and I missed out on last weekends soaking rain maker so I'm looking forward to this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 @ Tom To my post above, have you run across any maps showing Marshall under the rain shield from either of these (2) systems?RPM model??? Sorta gives you an idea what it looks like in SW MI... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Currently 34F with a nice thick frost on the car hoods and rooftops. Had to flip the heat on in the house when I got up. Bring on winter! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Currently 34F with a nice thick frost on the car hoods and rooftops. Had to flip the heat on in the house when I got up. Bring on winter!Your state is in the freezer this morning! Widespread mid/upper 20's this morning across the Dakotas/MN region. Nice to see someone finally cash in on a good frost. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 @ Tom To my post above, have you run across any maps showing Marshall under the rain shield from either of these (2) systems?I just saw the full run of the RPM and all of S MI does well with this system so I wouldn't worry about it. It lays out a uniform stratiform rain shield which I love to see in autumn systems heading into the cold season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Bottomed out at 38.3* on my 2nd floor balcony. Just went to Menard's to restock on firewood and it is full blown Christmas in there! In reference to what Tom said about record low maxes, that is safe here due to the insane 2009 October we had. On this day, it snowed 1.2" here and we set a record low max of 38. The next day, we set another record low max, this time being 40. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Bottomed out at 38.3* on my 2nd floor balcony. Just went to Menard's to restock on firewood and it is full blown Christmas in there! In reference to what Tom said about record low maxes, that is safe here due to the insane 2009 October we had. On this day, it snowed 1.2" here and we set a record low max of 38. The next day, we set another record low max, this time being 40.Wow, that is impressive for October! Ya, you won't be breaking any records but those to your east stand a shot at it. Buying firewood can get pretty dang expensive. Why don't you drive out into the forest and go chop some wood! Connect with nature and use what it provides us buddy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Wow, that is impressive for October! Ya, you won't be breaking any records but those to your east stand a shot at it. Buying firewood can get pretty dang expensive. Why don't you drive out into the forest and go chop some wood! Connect with nature and use what it provides us buddy!Menard's firewood isn't too bad of a price. About $5 for a bundle which lasts about 3 days if you use it constantly. Plus it's Nebraska. There's no trees here that aren't part of a state park or in someone's backyard Only public forestland near me is the Platte River Valley. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Gary Lezak mentioned that the heart of every new LRC is between Oct 15th - Nov 5th and some very interesting weather swings are being predicted during this period. As the entire Northern Hemispheric pattern undergoes the seasonal changes as the jet continues to intensify, IMO, we will see something fascinating happen as the SST's across the N PAC cause feedback and snap into a very amplified pattern. Firstly, after a couple systems this week into the weekend, we will see a pretty darn good warm up again as NW NAMER engulfs into a big trough. It is not until the 24th of October where we see the "big flip" all across N. A. The map below shows the NW NAMER trough... By the 24th, a number of clues line up which may lead to an "Autumn Arctic Attack" as the Aleutian Low develops, NE PAC ridge blossoms, Scandinavian Ridge as well as a somewhat -NAO work in tandem to allow any arctic air to flood the lower 48....not only that, but the PV gets dislodged off the Pole! It's still very early to say how this pattern will evolve as the new LRC is developing before our eyes. However, I will say, I'm confident that there is a flip coming into a colder regime closing out this month and heading into November. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Light snow reported west of Mason City according to local radio! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Light snow reported west of Mason City according to local radio!Get outta here! That's a great sign. It has been a trend that models have under done the cold and I think this season is going to be filled with exciting trends/surprises. Just checked the radar and there are some snow returns west of Sioux city and NW IA... Here's a 7:00am CST map... http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SurfaceAnalysis/r07_ICast.gif 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Currently @ 61 with fair skies. Nearing 70F today. Some needed rain on the way! Yay! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Colors are getting closer to near peak here in my area. I'd say, give it a week more to go. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 RPM model for Tue/Wed system... RPM model??? Sorta gives you an idea what it looks like in SW MI... Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Gary Lezak mentioned that the heart of every new LRC is between Oct 15th - Nov 5th and some very interesting weather swings are being predicted during this period. As the entire Northern Hemispheric pattern undergoes the seasonal changes as the jet continues to intensify, IMO, we will see something fascinating happen as the SST's across the N PAC cause feedback and snap into a very amplified pattern. Firstly, after a couple systems this week into the weekend, we will see a pretty darn good warm up again as NW NAMER engulfs into a big trough. It is not until the 24th of October where we see the "big flip" all across N. A. The map below shows the NW NAMER trough... By the 24th, a number of clues line up which may lead to an "Autumn Arctic Attack" as the Aleutian Low develops, NE PAC ridge blossoms, Scandinavian Ridge as well as a somewhat -NAO work in tandem to allow any arctic air to flood the lower 48....not only that, but the PV gets dislodged off the Pole! It's still very early to say how this pattern will evolve as the new LRC is developing before our eyes. However, I will say, I'm confident that there is a flip coming into a colder regime closing out this month and heading into November. Yeah, and GRR had an interesting afd yesterday regarding this amplification potential. They're usually pretty docile, but imagine they're bored too after months of lame patterns on lame patterns for SWMI. Time to "shake it up" ova here in SMI .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 We will have to watch closely what happens this weekend into earlynext week, there could be a major storm system moving through theGreat Lakes as there is some suggestion of phasing of the northernans southern stream waves as the upper wave pattern shifts eastward. The overall upper air pattern has become a little more progressivelately. The north Pacific wave train (jet stream shortwaves) arebecoming stronger (as they should at this time of year) and this iscausing deeper waves to cross the CONUS. The system that comes onshore late this week will be a case in point. This upper wave willhave more amplitude as it crosses the CONUS late this week intoearly in the following week. This leads to the GFS shifting theupper wave energy east to quickly while the ECMWF allows moredigging of that upper wave. That being so, the main system willcome through Sunday night into Monday as compared to Saturday nightinto Sunday. Over the next few days we will have to watch how thisplays out. Either way we get a cold front to come through Sunday butwith the ECMWF solution there would be early fall type systemtracking along the front Sunday night into Monday. This would likelyfeature strong thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall for ourSouthern CWA. Beyond that an even more significant system will need to be watched.As I mentioned yesterday we have one of the extended east Asian jetfeatures with a jet core over 190 knots near the dateline early inthe following week. When that gets into the CONUS and even moresignificant early fall storm would be likely for our area. Bottom line is stormy weather ahead but it for the most part bewarmer than normal for till that east Asian jet feature comesthrough through CONUS. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 From NOAA: Talk about active weather here in SMI: Attention then turns to tonight when a rain chances increase andstay in the forecast through tomorrow. The frontal boundary that ispushing through Michigan this morning will settle into the OhioValley by the afternoon. An upper wave currently located east of theRockies will move northeast throughout the day towards the midMississippi Valley. As it does this, it will draw ample Gulf moisturenorthward into the region. Precipitable Water values are forecast toreach around 1.25 inches or greater for portions of lower Michiganby this afternoon. The upper wave will begin enter the region andinteract with the frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley later thisevening. Model guidance varies slightly with the position of thesurface low, but Michigan will likely reside on the north side of thesurface low. This system will have good mid level dynamicsassociated with it, in addition to the right entrance region of theupper jet streaming overhead to start the night. All that being said,this set up will allow a decent rainfall event to unfold overnighttonight and ending tomorrow afternoon. Rainfall amounts could rangefrom 0.50" to 0.75" inch with with locally higher amounts up to 1"possible given the deep moisture available. The speed of the systemshould help limit any excessive rainfall.The upper low should exit to the east and weaken overnighttomorrow. Upper riding and surface high pressure will begin to buildin over the Great Lakes through the end of the week. Temperatureswill trend warmer from the 50s and 60s mid week back into the 70s byFriday and Saturday as warm air advection at 850mb streams intoMichigan from the southwest.This weekend looks like a another good opportunity for showers andeven some thunderstorms as another dynamic low pressure systemswings out of the northern Rockies and into the Great Lakes. Thefirst round of rain chances will be possible on Saturday along afrontal boundary parked across the lower Michigan as warm airadvection from southwest flow rides over that boundary. That boundarywill lift northward as a warm front on Sunday as showers andthunderstorms develop along that boundary. This leave Michigan in thewarm sector of this system as a cold front pushes through the stateSunday night continuing shower and thunderstorm chances to close outthe weekend. If this was December, it would have been real pretty here, ofc with cold air around. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Get outta here! That's a great sign. It has been a trend that models have under done the cold and I think this season is going to be filled with exciting trends/surprises. Just checked the radar and there are some snow returns west of Sioux city and NW IA... Here's a 7:00am CST map... http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SurfaceAnalysis/r07_ICast.gifI really wish they would have moved the Cubs game up to a 1 or maybe even 2 o'clock start today to try and avoid the heavier rain. From my understanding, today's game would have actually been a night game since there is no other games and ratings, ratings, ratings....The radar right now doesn't look too bad as far as it being a total washout, but we've got a long 7 hours until first pitch. I just don't want them to have to start and stop and start as that could mean Arrieta has to come out early if the game were delayed while he was in. Go Cubs! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Btw, I am sure most know, but, Winterstorm Aiden brought the first snow of the season to Denver. First named storm of this season. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Btw, I am sure most know, but, Winterstorm brought the first snow of the season to Denver. First storm of this season. Fixed it for you After today, the weather here should be boring for the next couple weeks. Highs in the 60s or 70s. Maybe a couple rain shower chances. I'll allow it, we've had quite a bit of rain lately. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 I really wish they would have moved the Cubs game up to a 1 or maybe even 2 o'clock start today to try and avoid the heavier rain. From my understanding, today's game would have actually been a night game since there is no other games and ratings, ratings, ratings....The radar right now doesn't look too bad as far as it being a total washout, but we've got a long 7 hours until first pitch. I just don't want them to have to start and stop and start as that could mean Arrieta has to come out early if the game were delayed while he was in. Go Cubs!I agree with you on that. Yesterday, when the call was made, it looked like the heavier rains would not get in till about after 8:00pm which would work out just fine. However, things have changed and I think it gets a bit wet out there. Who knows, if the radar is locked to be a soaker they may call it off. Although, the rain has been a good omen for the Cub's in recent history...Game 7 of the World Series...anyway, I'm still looking forward to a widespread drencher. @ Jaster, RPM looks even wetter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Fixed it for you After today, the weather here should be boring for the next couple weeks. Highs in the 60s or 70s. Maybe a couple rain shower chances. I'll allow it, we've had quite a bit of rain lately.Nothing to fix...it happened! https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2017-10-08-winter-storm-aiden-denver-forecast-snowstorm Temps here warm up also by the weeks end after the rainstorm. The 70s return with sunshine, but, more rain possible again by the weekend. Things starting to get a little active here in SEMI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Currently, some high thin clouds starting to move in ahead of the rain system that will be pushing through my area late tonight. Sun starting to fade away. Temps in the 60s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Nothing to fix...it happened! https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2017-10-08-winter-storm-aiden-denver-forecast-snowstorm Temps here warm up also by the weeks end after the rainstorm. The 70s return with sunshine, but, more rain possible again by the weekend. Things starting to get a little active here in SEMI.Let me just say I have my opinions about the entire naming winter storms thing.... Creeped up into the 40s on my balcony. 40.5 now. 3 degrees colder than the airport roughly. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 DMX afd pretty interesting regarding this weekend storm and model differential: By late in the week and into the weekend a series of short waveswill track through the deepening long wave trough over the westernCONUS. There remain significant differences between the GFS/Eurowith the GFS faster and less developed than the Euro model.Today`s system is similar...with the GFS less amplified than theEuro. Seems like the GFS is not seeing the same amount of cold airgetting entrained into either today`s system or the upcoming weekendstorm. A clue to the weekend outlook will be to verify how welltoday`s event is modeled. In any event...the Euro is more amplifiedthis weekend with a much stronger fall cyclone resulting in periodsof rain and thunder with the potential for several inches of rainfallacross the southeast half of the state in addition to what we receivetoday/this evening. The GFS is faster and suggests a more open lessamplified wave taking the system out of the area already by Sundaymorning while the Euro keeps moderate rain/thunder in the area Saturdaythrough Saturday night...and finally clears the region by Sunday afternoonwith much colder temperatures. Upper wind fields with the strongerEuro depict a possible severe weather outbreak just east of our areainto Illinois/Indiana/ Michigan while the GFS is farther northeastwith the better coincident wind maxes aloft. With such a wide rangeof possibilities...confidence remains low into the weekend for manyof the main forecast elements. The only consistency so far has beenthe past two model packages have shown intra-model (each model consistentwith itself) consistency but no inter model consistency ( modelsnot consistent with each other). For now a blended approach withsome lean toward the Euro has been taken. Though the solutions seemto be only 6 hours apart on timing there is a world of differenceon storm evolution and resultant conditions. It will probably bea couple of days more before a more consistent solution is forthcoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Let me just say I have my opinions about the entire naming winter storms thing.... Creeped up into the 40s on my balcony. 40.5 now. 3 degrees colder than the airport roughly.Tbh...I honestly wish that Winterstorms didn't have any names. Just plain Winterstorm Watch or Warning would've been just fine. All these names are ridiculous. Ofc, tropical systems I have no issue with having them named. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Clouds have lowered and thicken with temps in the 60s. Rainy weather coming.....yippee!!!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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