October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[snow_wizard]

Dang, that is gorgeous. You should see the Tamarack trees mixed in with all of the pine in the foothills near Colville. Truly remarkable trees they are. Really neat to see specks of yellow among nearly solid green hillsides. 

 

I'm looking forward to seeing the aspens and tamaracks when I go to Liberty tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

It's ok. Rod Hill is a certified crack head.

 

Good to know!  At any rate it's interesting to hear all of the people at OMSI are thinking cold this winter.  This one is screaming cold.

[Jbolin]

I'm looking forward to seeing the aspens and tamaracks when I go to Liberty tomorrow.

Should be gorgeous, last time I was in that area it was breathtaking with the amount of color and bare aspens 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Deweydog]

How much do we get if we guess the location?

[TT-SEA]

I reached 68 here and have no clue what mechanism mixed the warm air down to the surface.  The gradients were dead today.

 

We ended up at Remlinger Farms in Carnation in the most fog-prone spot in King County in the river valley there and it was 72 and sunny and most everyone was in t-shirts and shorts wandering the pumpkin patches.   

[stuffradio]

How much do we get if we guess the location?

Satisfaction.

[TT-SEA]

Along I-405 near Newcastle... just south of Bellevue.

 

[Deweydog]

I raked leaves today. A lot of them and they were crunchy.

 

Depression was averted by drenching my clothing in ice water before I went out to do so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How much do we get if we guess the location?

 

HWY 22 30 miles east of Salem. 

[Deweydog]

HWY 22 30 miles east of Salem.

You win!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You win!!!

Another beer!!

[TT-SEA]

I reached 68 here and have no clue what mechanism mixed the warm air down to the surface.  The gradients were dead today.

 

Side note... you get your gloomy wish tomorrow.   Socked in by morning in the Puget Sound area and your area is going to hang tough despite northerly flow clearing out the Sound and easterly flow clearing out the I-90 corridor by late morning.   I think you will be in no-man's land protected from both sources of ventilation.   

 

But now I remember you will be up in Liberty where it will be guaranteed to be drop-dead gorgeous.  

[ShawniganLake]

Side note... you get your gloomy wish tomorrow. Socked in by morning in the Puget Sound area and your area is going to hang tough despite northerly flow clearing out the Sound and easterly flow clearing out the I-90 corridor by late morning. I think you will be in no-man's land protected from both sources of ventilation.

 

But now I remember you will be up in Liberty where it will be guaranteed to be drop-dead gorgeous.

shouldn’t be too socked in for northern areas tomorrow. Official forecast calls for NE winds gusting to 50mph to develop during the morning.

[TT-SEA]

shouldn’t be too socked in for northern areas tomorrow. Official forecast calls for NE winds gusting to 50mph to develop during the morning.

 

Yeah... it will stay clear up there.   Low clouds might get up to Everett or maybe Mt. Vernon and then be shoved south pretty quickly as NE flow starts up.

 

Here is the MM5 NAM at 11 am... NE flow is cranking up there and the same with the easterly flow through Snoqualmie Pass.

 

The Seattle area is still in no-mans land though. 

 

[Deweydog]

Next weekend will be cooler than this weekend.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS literally shows constant cooling from now right up to the end of the run.  Three big cold shots all progressively colder.  Unprecedented for this early in the season if it verifies.  May we be on the verge of an historic winter season?  We are in a highly abnormal regime right now and that spells above average chances for an abnormal winter.

[whitechristmas]

Good to know!  At any rate it's interesting to hear all of the people at OMSI are thinking cold this winter.  This one is screaming cold.

The coldest months predicted at OMSI are December and February.

And March is the new February.

[snow_wizard]

The coldest months predicted at OMSI are December and February.

And March is the new February.

 

A case could be made for January to be the coldest month, but that's an impossible call right now.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z ensemble is the coldest yet with a number of members going to -7 or lower.  The control model drops to -8.

[whitechristmas]

A case could be made for January to be the coldest month, but that's an impossible call right now.

You're right. A cold and snowy December would be awesome! I would never consider February though.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. CFS looks cool to cold for the next 6 weeks. Lock it in!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wow. CFS looks cool to cold for the next 6 weeks. Lock it in!

 

The GFS has been pushing the snow event around a lot, the latest has snow falling almost all of next Saturday. But it consistently has been showing an event in one form or another.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I take it the EURO was meh...No talk of it...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I take it the EURO was meh...No talk of it...

 

I see its not so bad... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking ahead there is some early season precedent for snow in early November here. Maybe something like November 1945. Silver Falls had 4" on the 11/6/45 and a half inch the next day. 39/29 on the 6th, 36/31 on the 7th. 

 

Looking at Salem they had 44/34 and 49/32. I could see something like that happening in the next 10 days, though that is probably the best case scenario right now. 

[WeatherArchive]

The GFS literally shows constant cooling from now right up to the end of the run.  Three big cold shots all progressively colder.  Unprecedented for this early in the season if it verifies.  May we be on the verge of an historic winter season?  We are in a highly abnormal regime right now and that spells above average chances for an abnormal winter.

so it's going to be abnormally abnormal,

[TT-SEA]

Fog looks like widespread below about 750 feet.   Clear here and at the Snoquamie Parkway exit and at Tiger Mountain on Hwy 18... all above 750 feet.    But I can see the solid fog bank down in the valley.   And it looks foggy on all of the Seattle area traffic cams which indicates the top of the fog layer is very low.    Sometimes it expands and lifts after sunrise though.  

[TT-SEA]

I believe this camera is right around 750 feet... 

 

[Timmy]

Fog looks like widespread below about 750 feet. Clear here and at the Snoquamie Parkway exit and at Tiger Mountain on Hwy 18... all above 750 feet. But I can see the solid fog bank down in the valley. And it looks foggy on all of the Seattle area traffic cams which indicates the top of the fog layer is very low. Sometimes it expands and lifts after sunrise though.

Fog was all the way up above my house with drizzle here this morning

[TT-SEA]

Fog was all the way up above my house with drizzle here this morning

 

Definitely deeper as you go south.

 

Its even lower than here up in Bellingham... appears to be just over the water.   Not sure if this camera lens is cracked or if that is a spider web.  I think the lens is cracked.  

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I believe this camera is right around 750 feet...

 

The fog has settled in here @ 550’ in Bonney Lake. Feels falling this morning.

[Timmy]

Definitely deeper as you go south.

 

Its even lower than here up in Bellingham... appears to be just over the water. Not sure if this camera lens is cracked or if that is a spider web. I think the lens is cracked.

 

 

hopefully it sticks around, this late fall sunshine and warmth is slowly killing me.

[crf450ish]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah foggy and drizzly today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There has been some silliness on this forum the past few days. People acting like this upcoming pattern has the potential to be "historic." It does not. 

[stuffradio]

You don't see this every day.

 

[High Desert Mat!]

There has been some silliness on this forum the past few days. People acting like this upcoming pattern has the potential to be "historic." It does not.

+1

[stuffradio]

Despite all this warmth and ridging, we are still nicely below normal.

 

[Jesse]

There has been some silliness on this forum the past few days. People acting like this upcoming pattern has the potential to be "historic." It does not.

preatch