wx_statman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 January 1985, among others. Led to a nice February, though. More recently, Dec 2011 essentially had 4 weeks of ridging starting in late November and lasting until Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I was going to mention January 1985. December 85' had a lot of ridging too I think, especially the latter half of the month.The Christmas ridge in 1985 was a beast. 16-17c at 850mb. We had 60 degree temps with sunshine at the immediate coast and I remember playing outside in t-shirts at my grandparent's house on Christmas Day. It was a bit of a shift from Thanksgiving weekend that year. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The Christmas ridge in 1985 was a beast. 16-17c at 850mb. We had 60 degree temps with sunshine at the immediate coast and I remember playing outside in t-shirts at my grandparent's house on Christmas Day. It was a bit of a shift from Thanksgiving weekend that year. I always think it is funny that is the coldest December on record at PDX. Colder than 64, 72, 90, 08, 09, 13, etc... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 More recently, Dec 2011 essentially had 4 weeks of ridging starting in late November and lasting until Christmas. January 2014 also stands out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 What would you expect the impact of a high SO eruption in the tropics during peak solar would be to the Pacific NW?Depends what you mean by "peak solar". Also depends on if/when the volcano enters into its explosive stage, since SO^2 injection timed to boreal winter will affect the SH first and have reduced (initial) effects on the NH PV/O^3 system. Assuming the volcano enters into its explosive phase sometime this winter, the strongest effects in the NH will start sometime during the second half of 2018. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I always think it is funny that is the coldest December on record at PDX. Colder than 64, 72, 90, 08, 09, 13, etc...I would imagine basin snowcover helped out a tad. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I checked, and January 1985 was pretty dry for Seattle, and probably everywhere else. Except for a week with a couple of days of minor rainfall. Otherwise it was foggy most of the month. So it is unusual, but not unprecedented, to have 4 weeks or so of a huge ridge parked over us during winter months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Only 0.57" of rain at Silver Falls in January 1985. Average for January is just over 10". Tim would have loved it. Nice cold outbreaks with snow in December 84' and February 85'. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 12z EPS is laying down the precursors for a discontinuous retrogression by d15. First stage of the retrogression (in mid/late December) should move the trough axis from the Eastern US into the Plains/Midwest. Then, the second stage retrogrades the anticyclone into the GOA/NPAC around New Years, dumping the trough into the Western US. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/41FF79EA-984E-4384-A0F3-DBE26C3BB953_zps31u7lhse.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The Christmas ridge in 1985 was a beast. 16-17c at 850mb. We had 60 degree temps with sunshine at the immediate coast and I remember playing outside in t-shirts at my grandparent's house on Christmas Day. It was a bit of a shift from Thanksgiving weekend that year. Crazy inversion during Christmas week. Mid-70's in the thermal belt (i.e. 74 at Laurel Mountain) while Hood River was stuck in the mid-20's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I always think it is funny that is the coldest December on record at PDX. Colder than 64, 72, 90, 08, 09, 13, etc... There was some seriously entrenched cold air east of the Cascades that never got scoured out that month, even in the higher elevation valleys. Some places approached the coldest month on record benchmarks set in months like Jan 1937 or Jan 1949. Perfect storm to get month-long stagnation following a record Arctic airmass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I checked, and January 1985 was pretty dry for Seattle, and probably everywhere else. Except for a week with a couple of days of minor rainfall. Otherwise it was foggy most of the month. So it is unusual, but not unprecedented, to have 4 weeks or so of a huge ridge parked over us during winter months. January 1985 was the driest on record pretty much everywhere in the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 There was some seriously entrenched cold air east of the Cascades that never got scoured out that month, even in the higher elevation valleys. Some places approached the coldest month on record benchmarks set in months like Jan 1937 or Jan 1949. Perfect storm to get month-long stagnation following a record Arctic airmass. Speaking of January 1937... Back in 2011 I almost bought a house way up in the west slopes SE of Molalla, OR, at almost 2400'. I was actually under contract, but the place just needed to much work. Turned out there was an old weather station up there just down the road from 1933-56. January 37' was quite the beast. https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00358221&year=1937&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 2005 and 2011 really stick out for me, just based on how long the dry weather lasted and how recent they were. No doubt. Was just adding some other historical examples. It certainly looks at this point that this dry spell could be unusually lengthy, but really too soon to say beyond it will probably be dry/cool for at least 4-5 days. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Speaking of January 1937... Back in 2011 I almost bought a house way up in the west slopes SE of Molalla, OR, at almost 2400'. I was actually under contract, but the place just needed to much work. Turned out there was an old weather station up there just down the road from 1933-56. January 37' was quite the beast. https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00358221&year=1937&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 That was a great month for the West as a whole. A -PNA monster from start to finish. I've read a study where they reconstructed the PNA from 1922-48 using old aviation data (pilot reports, balloon soundings, etc). January 1937 was the most -PNA month in that span. Kalispell MT never rose above 28 the entire month. Only month in 120 years that didn't reach the freezing mark there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 No doubt. Was just adding some other historical examples. It certainly looks at this point that this dry spell could be unusually lengthy, but really too soon to say beyond it will probably be dry/cool for at least 4-5 days. True, it is a bit premature to assign anything to next month. Still the 27th of this month! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 One of the most amazing events in my lifetime, here is what I wrote in the "This day in history" thread yesterday... On this day...11/26/06 in the morning the snow started to stick, by 1pm the power was off as the heavy wet snow started taking down trees and limbs. By that night it was still snowing with a foot on the ground...it continued until the evening of the 27th when the arctic front pushed through and temps plummeted to the upper teens. 18” of snow, tree destruction like I have never seen, and no power for nearly a week since the damage was so extensive. That was one hell of an event especially since the forecast called for a sloppy inch with possibly another inch with arctic passage... Wow that sounds like quite a storm. Was that a convergence setup or an actual system low? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 That was a great month for the West as a whole. A -PNA monster from start to finish. I've read a study where they reconstructed the PNA from 1922-48 using old aviation data (pilot reports, balloon soundings, etc). January 1937 was the most -PNA month in that span. Kalispell MT never rose above 28 the entire month. Only month in 120 years that didn't reach the freezing mark there. Amazing. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Wow that sounds like quite a storm. Was that a convergence setup or an actual system low? That was from a surface low which tracked right over Seattle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Hopefully it blows big soon so it can affect next summer. I was reading somewhere an explosive eruption was not expected at this point. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I was reading somewhere an explosive eruption was not expected at this point.Breitbart? I don’t think anyone knows exactly what it will do. But the threat for a major magmatic eruption seems to elevated right now compared to where we were a few weeks ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The Euro weeklies are out. Holds firm for the most part. The majority of December is warm west/cold east. A heavy, long-period retrogression starts up around the winter solstice, with the ridge establishing (and strengthening) over the GOA/NE-Pacific during the first week of January. Some of the ensemble members are insanely cold in the PNW after New Years. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I was reading somewhere an explosive eruption was not expected at this point.I don't have the answers, but MAGMA-Indonesia (the official body for the region, with the most extensive knowledge of their local vulcanism) does not concur, and inticipates a more explosive eruption at some point. Agung's eruptions almost always feature an explosive phase, so I'm not sure why this eruption should be any different. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Breitbart? I don’t think anyone knows exactly what it will do. But the threat for a major magmatic eruption seems to elevated right now compared to where we were a few weeks ago. No it was a typical fake news source like Reuters or something along those lines. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The Euro weeklies are out. Holds firm for the most part. The majority of December is warm west/cold east. A heavy, long-period retrogression starts up around the winter solstice, with the ridge establishing (and strengthening) over the GOA/NE-Pacific during the first week of January. Some of the ensemble members are insanely cold in the PNW after New Years.What does the ensemble mean show? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I don't have the answers, but MAGMA-Indonesia (the official body for the region, with the most extensive knowledge of their local vulcanism) does not concur, and inticipates a more explosive eruption at some point. Agung's eruptions almost always feature an explosive phase, so I'm not sure why this eruption should be any different. When was the last eruption that had a discernible impact on world climate? Pinatubo? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 When was the last eruption that had a discernible impact on world climate? Pinatubo?I think so. That one led to at least 1 good winter here. 1992-93 had at least 1 snow event down here right? Plus I feel like the 93-94 niño had some cold periods. Snowflakes were falling on xmas unless I have the year wrong. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I think so. That one led to at least 1 good winter here. 1992-93 had at least 1 snow event down here right? 92-93 had 32" of snow at SLE. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 92-93 had 32" of snow at SLE.Yup, sadly I feel like next winter will be a niño so less likely to be as cold here. Hopefully the subsequent winters will still be affected by the cooling episode. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Wow... the EPS and ECMWF control run are just crazy ridgy through the end of the run. Obviously inversions will be in play in December and it does not look like a cold east wind pattern. 1952 and 2009 showed up as top analogs today. I remember thinking December of 2009 was a really nice month but it was not snowy here. I clearly remember a long stretch of crisp, sunny weather around Christmas that year with a bare ground. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Wow... the EPS and ECMWF control run are just crazy ridgy through the end of the run. Obviously inversions will be in play in December and it does not look like a cold east wind pattern. 1952 and 2009 showed up as top analogs today. I remember thinking December of 2009 was a really nice month but it was not snowy here. I clearly remember a long stretch of crisp, sunny weather around Christmas that year with a bare ground.Gross! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 11/27/17 Teleconnection Indices forecastBleh. NOPE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Gross! Day after day of murky fog would definitely be very gross. Christmas week of 2009 was really nice up here at least. Crystal clear skies and sunshine and snow-covered mountains. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 When was the last eruption that had a discernible impact on world climate? Pinatubo?Yeah, I think it was Pinatubo, though that eruption occurred during a massive solar maximum/+ENSO/+NAM/CFC-laden era. The climatic response to Agung (if there is one) will be quite different in the middle latitudes. The lack of VEI5+ volcanoes since the early 1990s is also somewhat unusual, statistically speaking, so I'm guessing it's reasonable to expect more explosive volcanic activity over the next few decades relative to the more recent few. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Yup, sadly I feel like next winter will be a niño so less likely to be as cold here. Hopefully the subsequent winters will still be affected by the cooling episode.Next winter won't be a Niño (IMO), but I think 2019/20 could be. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Yeah, I think it was Pinatubo, though that eruption occurred during a massive solar maximum/+ENSO/+NAM/CFC-laden era. The climatic response to Agung (if there is one) will be quite different in the middle latitudes. The lack of VEI5+ volcanoes since the early 1990s is also somewhat unusual, statistically speaking, so I'm guessing it's reasonable to expect more explosive volcanic activity over the next few decades relative to the more recent few. Here is the list of the largest volcanic eruptions in recent history... https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0418/Five-biggest-volcano-eruptions-in-recent-history I think the Tambora eruption on 4/10/1815 (this was a VEI7 and absolutely massive) and Krakatoa on 8/27/1883 and Pinatubo 6/15/1991 all had noticeable effects on the weather in the PNW. Although there are very few records from 1815... it was clear that one effected the entire planet. The winters of 1883-84 were 1884-85 were very snowy. I am not sure what the summer of 1884 was like... I can't find that site that has daily stats for Portland back to 1879. Can anyone link me to that site again? And I believe the winter of 1992-93 and the summer of 1993 was influenced by Pinatubo. However... the other VEI6 eruptions of Santa Maria on 10/24/1902 and Novarupta on 6/6/1912 seemed to have less of an effect. The following 2 summers after each of those eruptions were all spectacular here by my standards (1903, 1904, 1913, and 1914). The corresponding winters also did not seem unusually cold and snowy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Yup, sadly I feel like next winter will be a niño so less likely to be as cold here. Hopefully the subsequent winters will still be affected by the cooling episode. I always thought 92-93 was weak Nino or +Neutral. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 El Chichon (1983) erupted during a super Niño/+PDO, but it influenced the climate through the mid-1980s -ENSO years, in particular 1983/84, 1984/84, and 1985/86. However, that was also powerful solar wind/CFC dominated period for the stratosphere, unlike today. So, the years following the Agung's 1963 eruption might be the best analogs for Agung's ongoing eruption, lol. 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, and 1966 were all relatively cool summers around here. Before and after the last eruption of Mt. Agung... so there might be other factors at play in that time frame. 1964 was the coolest and similar to 1993. That would actually line up with the summer of 2019 after this eruption. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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