November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Kayla]

Day 9

 

The ridge just rebuilds and doesn't budge once again on the 12z. I'm having a really hard time believing that solution in a Niña. More likely that we see things breakdown in the 8-10 day period with the NPAC flow breaking through. I'd love to be wrong though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wasn't there something we used to talk about where big typhoons over in the West Pacific later on leads to something here in the PNW?  Maybe colder weather or big wind storms?  I seem to remember something about that.

We often look for a huge low bombing off Kamchatka to be a main driver of downstream blocking near 160 W.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 .....Not there yet, but I actually really liked the progression on this run compared to many previous ones. Ridge is much healthier, sturdy/upright, and the energy with the trough to the west of it is more consolidated, less cut-off propensity.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/240/500h_anom.na.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pouring rain here this morning at 45F. Sadly this looks to be the last active weather for awhile.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11-12 for what it's worth (Sack of potatoes?) Block is now tilting

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/276/500h_anom.na.png

[Geos]

Heavy rain now. Temp pushed down to 40.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12-13 This is exactly the "potential" I was looking for and again due to the sturdy/upright nature of the block and how the energy was handled west of 160/150 W the entire run.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/300/500h_anom.na.png

[Geos]

Ok. DJ. I see what you're describing now. That pattern would deliver the cold to the southwest.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

 

Day 11-12 for what it's worth (Sack of potatoes?) Block is now tilting

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/276/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

There's no amount of tilting that would be enough to save us with the block in that position. Better odds if it were undercut and rephrased over the Central Pacific.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS gets chilly toward the end of the run. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 13-14, I know it's la-la land, but it shows the progression has a far better chance of getting to where we want it due to the nature of the block which setup at day 7.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/348/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 13-14, I know it's la-la land, but it shows where the progression has a far better chance of getting to where we want it due to the nature of the block which setup at day 7.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/348/500h_anom.na.png

 

That looks like it would eventually get undercut. Leading possibly a brief overrunning event.

[Timmy]

Pouring rain here this morning at 45F. Sadly this looks to be the last active weather for awhile.

drought conditions returning to VIS!

[ShawniganLake]

Been a wet November here. More than 12” with a little more to fall today.

[Geos]

If it were only 7-8 degrees cooler. This would be an epic snowstorm. Rain is hammering down here in Bothell.

[Gradient Keeper]

Subtle improvement on 12z GEFS, mainly with 500mb ridge orientation/axis. The 6-10, 8-14 day 500mb Composite Analogs also improved some with a few cold/snowy years popping up.

[TT-SEA]

Cold air has arrived on Sunday afternoon... clearing up and drying out at this point.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

It will likely freeze here on Sunday night!

[Gradient Keeper]

I have to step out, so I can't post any 12z ECMWF stuff. Hope it's a decent run!

[Front Ranger]

It will likely freeze here on Sunday night!

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Day 13-14, I know it's la-la land, but it shows the progression has a far better chance of getting to where we want it due to the nature of the block which setup at day 7.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/348/500h_anom.na.png

Only if you like dry backside cold... Yawn... no snow whatsoever with that setup. Toss it!

[TT-SEA]

515c4859d23fe741465a0519c3786417.jpg

 

They will just be taking a nap... not dead.   

[Geos]

I have to step out, so I can't post any 12z ECMWF stuff. Hope it's a decent run!

 

I got access to some data. I'll see what it shows. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cold air has arrived on Sunday afternoon... clearing up and drying out at this point.

 

 

I don't notice it getting all that cold with that. Still several degrees above freezing.

[Jesse]

Only if you like dry backside cold... Yawn... no snow whatsoever with that setup. Toss it!

Yes, keep that icky cold away. We all know that moisture is the hardest ingredient to come by around here! It will be cold enough for snow regardless.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro is less amplified and further east with the ridge compared to yesterday.

[Deweydog]

12z Euro is less amplified and further east with the ridge compared to yesterday.

I want Rob back. You suck!

[MossMan]

The rain is quite heavy out there now. Too bad it wasn't colder out. 

 

I'm still holding out hope for some Christmas whiteness. And then a brutally cold and snowy January. 

[Jesse]

They will just be taking a nap... not dead.

Just like that hamster you had when you were 7.

[Front Ranger]

I want Rob back. You suck!

 

I know. I don't have his play by play, map by map talent. Or desire.

[Front Ranger]

Just like that hamster you had when you were 7.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBqNYs9GEpw

[Jesse]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBqNYs9GEpw

RIP Mr. Flufflekins

[TT-SEA]

Just like that hamster you had when you were 7.

 

My hamster ate its young when I was around that age... I was done with hamsters at that point.     It was a traumatic day!  

[TT-SEA]

Sweetness at Snoqualmie Pass right now...

 

[Deweydog]

I know. I don't have his play by play, map by map talent. Or desire.

We all wish you had the desire. Add that to your catalog of analogs and you'd be unstoppable! A true triple crown threat!

[Jesse]

My hamster ate its young when I was around that age... I was done with hamsters at that point. It was a traumatic day!

Hate to break it to you, but roses do that too. Especially when denied freezing temps for too long.

[TT-SEA]

Much more wimpy block on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10... this looks somewhat promising to me.

 

[Front Ranger]

Much more wimpy block on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10... this looks somewhat promising to me.

 

 

I was just gonna say...that's the first semi-legit retrograde setup I've seen. Rising heights over the Aleutians, flattening +PNA ridge...

[Front Ranger]

My hamster ate its young when I was around that age... I was done with hamsters at that point.     It was a traumatic day!  

 

One of my hamsters in college suddenly lost all its fur and died. Also traumatic.

 

There's a reason dogs are so popular.

[MossMan]

Sweetness at Snoqualmie Pass right now...

 

Glad I chose yesterday to travel. Around town in Moses Lake was much worse than the pass yesterday morning, wet roads and the temps dropped at sunrise creating an ice rink which I think caught the deicer trucks off guard. Lots of people going sideways, was exciting!