Niko Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Hope it is okay with all Mods on here for starting a new thread: December will be getting colder eventually and snowstorms should start brewing for a lot of us on here. It will be a colder Winter for sure and snowier for some. Lets all discuss and enjoy December fun........... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Some weather porn to kick this off with too. Give me this pattern and I'm not worried about a thing. Just waiting patiently. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Niko, I just realized you started a thread already...my bad! I'll just delete mine and post here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 After back-to-back dud winter seasons, many of us on here have been waiting for a real winter. The month of December is showing favorable signs that it could be one that we will remember.....but for what??? How will we remember this December??? Who gets the snows first??? Will the Polar Vortex be making a visit sometime around the Winter Solstice??? IMO, this month will feature bountiful winter weather after we get past the opening 4 days or so of the month. With the holiday season in full swing and Christmas decor on display, I think its time for nature to deliver the goods with a fresh cover of snow. Latest 12z GEFS are increasingly looking more wintry for those out in the Plains/Midwest during the later half of the opening week into Week 2 of December. Let's discuss... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Niko, I just realized you started a thread already...my bad! I'll just delete mine and post here. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 That map looks sweet. It has me in the 2-4inch category. I'll accept that in a heartbeat. Jaster is in the higher level color (3-5") 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 I'll take that GEFS map too. I wouldn't mind a good 3" snowfall to start off. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 I really hope this weather turns around, I'm going to get the sailboat going if this torch doesn't stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Gary Lezak sounds pretty pumped about December and he mentions their in-house model is very cold Dec 15th-30th. He sounded convinced that the Vortex will be returning during this month along with many storm systems. As for the LRC, he is still thinking 45-51 days is the cycle length. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 My temps get considerably colder after the 6th. Highs forecasted to be near 30F and lows dipping in the upper teens. That is a good 5-10 degrees below average. Btw: Models have the MJO going into 7 and 8 in December which typically provides a cold pattern. Things are looking good. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Gary Lezak sounds pretty pumped about December and he mentions their in-house model is very cold Dec 15th-30th. He sounded convinced that the Vortex will be returning during this month along with many storm systems. As for the LRC, he is still thinking 45-51 days is the cycle length.I’m curious on that length bc if that’s the case than what happened to our big storm we should have had the last couple of days? Back on October 6th I remember getting hit by a big storm in Omaha. We had thunderstorms and almost 3” of rain. 45-51 days would have had something nice moving through between the 20-26th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 I’m curious on that length bc if that’s the case than what happened to our big storm we should have had the last couple of days? Back on October 6th I remember getting hit by a big storm in Omaha. We had thunderstorms and almost 3” of rain. 45-51 days would have had something nice moving through between the 20-26th.Looked like as we got closer, things trended such that any developing lee cyclone was quickly overrun and suppressed by a trailing cold front from the primary surface low in MB. Between FH30-48, you can see the energy come across the rockies and try to get something going, but then gets shoved to the SW over the panhandles and dissipate. I have a feeling if the northern stream vortex weren't so strong and didn't force the crashing cold front, the southern branch would've had a much better chance to do something. But the next system is still there on the GFS, and the euro cuts it off over the SW. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster. Looks like it has it happening at about the same time the warm air is ushered out for good, too. Maybe we can get our hopes up that the cold moves in quicker! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster. Good. So when the SE and weaker trend happens, should still be a respectable system. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Niko buddy, here you go. Wanted you to feel right at home: https://www.nymetroweather.com/blog/ 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Niko buddy, here you go. Wanted you to feel right at home: https://www.nymetroweather.com/blog/ Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster. That's a YUUUUGE storm! If only it weren't on a 200+ hr 18z GFS Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 BAMwx tweet on Euro run from hr216 to end of run: ”This pattern is as good as it gets for the Ohio Valley to the NE for cold and snow. Buckle up!" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I am very curious of what Gary has to say tomorrow night, I'm honestly a bit confused on how the length of the cycle is what he thinks. I must also say he is a snow enthusiast but a realist when he gets excited about a pattern it is usually a good sign. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 MJO forecasted to pulse thru phases 5-6 going into Dec, giving us this look @ 500mb 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 #BSR map @ 500 mb with CONUS super-imposed. Iirc, SLP normally tracks SE of the low at 500 mb Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 No worries. Imagine there will be a lot more interested in the LRC before this week is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 My early input is that I doubt I get snow out of the 1st December storm(5th). Any would be a pure bonus. I'd expect more of a severe weather event near the 5th and the widespread winter threat being centered more toward the 10th-12th as the cold fills and settles in for the month. Nearly T minus 4 days til official winter and really looks primed for a great start. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Looks like the 0z canadian model took out the storm completely and the northern stream won Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 00z GFS still has a storm. Unimpressive compared to the 18z monster but that's not saying too much. 14" bullseye in SE SD. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Looks like the 0z canadian model took out the storm completely and the northern stream won It's hard to take a 10-day GEM run seriously, especially when it comes to weather out here. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 It's hard to take a 10-day GEM run seriously, especially when it comes to weather out here.Yeah the GEM has probably been the most unreliable model this year so far. Just posting it for laughs. BUT...the GFS seems to be more east with this run and a tad south even gives us thunderstorms ahead of it and light snow on the backside. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Yeah the GEM has probably been the most unreliable model this year so far. Just posting it for laughs. BUT...the GFS seems to be more east with this run and a tad south even gives us thunderstorms ahead of it and light snow on the backside.GFS is a scenario I can see happening. A sad one, but realistic. I'd love it if we didn't have 3 straight Decembers with thunderstorms. Oh well, at least it's QPF. Good for the farmers. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 GFS is a scenario I can see happening. A sad one, but realistic. I'd love it if we didn't have 3 straight Decembers with thunderstorms. Oh well, at least it's QPF. Good for the farmers.it's still a long ways out. theres even several ensembles of the GFS that have this thing hitting Kansas and Missouri with snow and missing us so anythings game at this point. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 it's still a long ways out. theres even several ensembles of the GFS that have this thing hitting Kansas and Missouri with snow and missing us so anythings game at this point. Yeah, this system is a long way from decided. When the 17-18th storm was flashed, it was across NMI, and remained that way for several days. Then began trending to it's actual track well south of the state. Too early to draw to a conclusion at this range. The goal right now should be maintaining the potential. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Both GFS and Euro proceed to show lovely rain for us while those to our West get hammered with snow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Thats a hard cutter on the GFS. Geez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Glad to see both the Euro/GFS still showing the Dec 5th-6th system. I think the Euro is showing the more plausible solution and showcasing a hard cutter. What is interesting, both GEFS/EPS showing some energy in the deep south across TX that has potential to develop and track along the developing boundary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 My temps take a plunge during the 6-7th timeframe. Warm air to the south colliding w much colder air to the north should have a low pressure area somewhere in that boundaryline. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 A Dakota cutter after several long weeks of boring weather is a kick to the junk. But, we’ll see what happens. Still plenty of time to let this thing play out. MSP officially only has 0.6” of snow in Nov (although about 4” imby). Already 9” below normal on the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I've never seen the EPS show such a deep long lasting -AO in a very long time. Of course, I didn't have the access to the various models we do nowadays but to see run after run showing such a strong signal for long lasting blocking is wonderful to see. Joe D' Aleo had a nice write up this morning about the tanking AO and comparing it to the 2009-10 & 1995-96 seasons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The explosive nature of the system north of Japan is intriguing and the track has somewhat changed from a few days ago. It has potential to translate into a less of a hard cutter, but bc it tracks so far north it's hard not to discount that. However, we have to consider the amount of blocking that has developed over N.A. that may adjust the track. Should be a fun winter storm to track over the next few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 @ Okwx, nice looking maps down there for ya, ey??? The coming 500mb pattern post 4th-6th system is going to carve out one deep trough across our sub forum. Things are going to get interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I've never seen the EPS show such a deep long lasting -AO in a very long time. Of course, I didn't have the access to the various models we do nowadays but to see run after run showing such a strong signal for long lasting blocking is wonderful to see. Joe D' Aleo had a nice write up this morning about the tanking AO and comparing it to the 2009-10 & 1995-96 seasons. KBUF mentioning it as a key factor of cold-n-snow returning: BUF NWS thoughts: After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the pastfew days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place duringthe second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weakenand break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to takeshape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. Theblocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenlandand the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negativeNAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become morenegative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic. The MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though theperiod with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulationpattern. The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building westcoast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote thedevelopment of a longwave trough over central and eastern NorthAmerica during the second week in December. This should allow formore cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the northcentral and northeastern U.S., including our region, startingsomewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is allpredicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern changeverifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The explosive nature of the system north of Japan is intriguing and the track has somewhat changed from a few days ago. It has potential to translate into a less of a hard cutter, but bc it tracks so far north it's hard not to discount that. However, we have to consider the amount of blocking that has developed over N.A. that may adjust the track. Should be a fun winter storm to track over the next few days. That's (2) potent systems closely spaced just like we had in early October. Hopefully, someone scores flakes now that we're two months down the road. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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