December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Money]

Gfs ensembles at 120 are in pretty good agreement

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017121612&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=77

[Tom]

12z GEFS trends in the last 4 runs...more HP to the north and focusing energy to the south....

[St Paul Storm]

Does your family have a place out there?

Yep they own a house in Surprize. They’re contemplating moving here to MN to be closer to their first grandchild, but they may reconsider when they feel the arctic blast. Ha!

[Tom]

Yep they own a house in Surprize. They’re contemplating moving here to MN to be closer to their first grandchild, but they may reconsider when they feel the arctic blast. Ha!

Ah, yes...Surprise is in the NW Valley...do you go out there often???

[james1976]

GEM & GFS tossing out 5-6 for me. Definitely liking the trends but wish it wasn't 5 days out yet.

[Tom]

Chances of a White Christmas are on the rise...

 

[Money]

Euro coming in north

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I will be so pissed if the Minnesota posters here get it and we don't. No offense to anyone but we deserve this more then you guys do lol

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Euro coming in north

Looks the same to me. 

[Money]

Looks the same to me.

 

 

850 line cuts through mn and south central wi

 

997 in KS at 120

[Craig-OmahaWX]

12z EURO looks weaker with the northern energy, a tad. That might help the secondary low come north. I may be wrong though lol.

[bud2380]

Not liking the trends today but such a long ways to go.

[james1976]

I hate rain-snow changeovers

[GDR]

I’m going with no snowlover and say no measurable snow in my area through December and 2.7 in for the winter..

[Money]

1002 L just west of Chicago at 144

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gary Lezac said once we get past Sunday the storm should get past an area that is terrible for models to predict, so at least by tomorrow night we should get a little clearer signal.

[gabel23]

From hr 120 to hr 144 the southern piece goes from central Kansas east to Chicago.....that should be a great track for everyone along I-80. Can’t wait to see precip map.

[james1976]

From hr 120 to hr 144 the southern piece goes from central Kansas east to Chicago.....that should be a great track for everyone along I-80. Can’t wait to see precip map.

yeah but are temp profiles cold enough?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

EURO looks much different after the first system and even back building in the west of a trough. That would be nice.

[gabel23]

yeah but are temp profiles cold enough?

Great question.....I’m only seeing the slp track, that will be a big player.

[Tom]

Started a storm thread for the Winter Solstice storm..

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1698-the-winter-solstice-storm/?p=285362

[Money]

gosaints to gb area gets crushed

[bud2380]

Depressing model runs today for my area. I still hold out hope that I catch the southern edge of this though.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Depressing model runs today for my area. I still hold out hope that I catch the southern edge of this though.

EURO looks good for much of Nebraska and Iowa still, just went north like 20 miles a bit, the same placement it had yesterday at 12z. 

[NEJeremy]

Looks like Euro shows generally 2-3" mainly along and north of I-80, with some 4" amounts in extreme northeast Nebraska near Sioux City and then into NW Iowa.

[St Paul Storm]

Ah, yes...Surprise is in the NW Valley...do you go out there often???

I honestly don’t go as often as I should. But I’ll be out there a few times in 2018. Mostly later in the year.

[OKwx2k4]

haven't seen the second big storm that was supposed to hit the majority of the forum around Christmas for a while now. not surprising if it's going to get really cold, everything is going to be shoved way south. people are excited for extreme cold and 50 below wind chills , but then the main storm track will not be anywhere close to the majority of us(congrats to Okwx though).

I sincerely thank you buddy. It's been a long time coming for me especially when I've known where this pattern was headed awhile ago. I'm excited to finally get to see it play out again. White Christmas 2017 looks solid as ever.

[Hawkeye]

We've been overperforming by a few degrees recently, and today is no different.  We just hit 50.  I went to Cedar Lake for a little birding walk.  The lake is 95+% iced over, but there was still a flock of 1000+ Canada geese and mallards.  I actually felt a bit warm in my winter coat because the wind was calm.

[Hoosier]

We've been overperforming by a few degrees recently, and today is no different. We just hit 50. I went to Cedar Lake for a little birding walk. The lake is 95+% iced over, but there was still a flock of 1000+ Canada geese and mallards. I actually felt a bit warm in my winter coat because the wind was calm.

So much hype about a historic/wall to wall winter and little to show for it. It has been a good start in a relatively small zone, namely Michigan. Things should get better (has to, lol) but really can't afford to lose so much of December.

[jaster220]

So much hype about a historic/wall to wall winter and little to show for it. It has been a good start in a relatively small zone, namely Michigan. Things should get better (has to, lol) but really can't afford to lose so much of December.

Spot on post! Tom's call for a fast-n-furious start has played out perfectly for a few of us only. Now I need that melting Snowman emoji tho, LOL! Temps really soared into the upper 30's today. With full sun it feels like spring outside, especially after having 1 deg just 2 mornings ago.

[jaster220]

Chances of a White Christmas are on the rise...

 

The way we're torching already today, it's not looking good here presuming that SMI is that high due to current snow OTG?? Melting hard out there and possibly 3 more days of warmth to get thru. Would be nice if these patterns weren't so dang bi-polar!

[St Paul Storm]

The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here.

[Niko]

Dang, congrats!

[Tom]

The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here.

Awesome!  Putting in good use the "Land of 10,000 Lakes"....

[Niko]

Currently some light snow falling and temps is @ 27F.

[OKwx2k4]

The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here.

I know I've probably said it before but I am definitely envious of you. Lol. That would be so much fun.

[Grizzcoat]

The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here.

May I ask what lake? (Phalen or Owasso  is my guess)-- I grew up in New Brighton on Long Lake and did the same thing ( ice rink) for a long time and still might when I visit my moms here in a few weeks.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gfs ens members are further north with cut off low hammering us Christmas eve. Reg gfs run came north too.

[St Paul Storm]

May I ask what lake? (Phalen or Owasso  is my guess)-- I grew up in New Brighton on Long Lake and did the same thing ( ice rink) for a long time and still might when I visit my moms here in a few weeks.

Oh nice. I’m actually between Phalen and Owasso. I’m on Lake McCarrons on the border of Roseville, Maplewood and St Paul.

[MNTonka]

Lurker here...I thought I’d chime in to say that you are very close to me. I’m near Beaver lake on the east side of STP. I have ridden my bike around McCarrons many times. How thick is the ice?