December Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

Phil will end up in Omaha managing a Cinnabon in a year if he is lucky

Lol, I love Cinnabons.

[Phil]

I’m in! I call dibs on his estate up at the top of Stampede Pass!

Sold that one years ago to purchase a new one on the summit of Mt. Rainier. All are welcome.

[MossMan]

Sold that one years ago to purchase a new one on the summit of Mt. Rainier. All are welcome.

Perfect! Better views at that location! You of course are invited to our first annual forum party up there!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here is the top of stampede. Thats the little house i was talking about. I have walked over the top of that roof one winter, want to say winter of 98.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There used to be a K mart up there, must of got blown off the mountain i guess.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[luvssnow_spokane]

It is nice to see the GFS at least getting a tad cooler on each run in the shorter term. Nothing remarkable but small changes in the right direction is always good. Still showing rain for the lowlands though on Christmas. 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

rob, Jim, Tim and Phil have all throttled way back or stopped posting that makes a big difference.

I was up until 5:30 AM with severe knee pain and had to wait until exhaustion just to be able to sleep. 12z runs were definitely not good and if that's a trend we can write off the end of December into January. Too soon to say on that. It is annoying how watered down this modified blast has become to just a trickle of cold air pulled into eastern Washington. 12z EPS shows a massive Columbia Basin cold pool for 7+ days, but even that I suspect won't happen. We'll need the cold pool to really strengthen more so than modeled like we had earlier this month. If that happens, then I suppose anything is possible, more likely ZR for PDX/Gorge. Onto 00z runs!

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 21 minutes

00z CMC in 5 hours 57 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 42 minutes

[Deweydog]

Looks nino-ish.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, there could be a modest boreal winter warming effect in the high latitudes. But again, this doesn’t look like a long-lasting eruption, so..jury is still out IMO.

 

Dueling volcanoes!  

 

Offsetting penalties.   Repeat first down.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Drunken Uncle shows promise here though...

 

[TT-SEA]

Here is the top of stampede. Thats the little house i was talking about. I have walked over the top of that roof one winter, want to say winter of 98.

 

That is in Phil's old subdivision! 

 

There is a new Whole Foods and Starbucks around the corner.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Dueling volcanoes!  

 

Offsetting penalties.   Repeat first down.  

Due to holding in the 10 day pattern there is a 5 yard penalty.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Overall there is a lot of pretty dang cold Maritime air that wants to head this way on the 18z... This can be good for us as it would be cold enough and potential packed moisture. There is more than one way to skin a block. \

 

 

[wx_statman]

18z a notch cooler on Christmas Eve at both the surface and 850mb level with the system moving in around Forks.

 

Hope to see it trend further south, per usual (and per the Euro).

 

There's that word. Everyone take a shot.

[Guest Dome Buster]

"I'm dreaming of a shiny, slippery Christmas!"

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS making things interesting quickly

 

Day 6.5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017122018/156/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

18z says maybe I see a few rain/snow showers at my parent's house next week.

[HighlandExperience]

18z says maybe I see a few rain/snow showers at my parent's house next week.

Where they live?

[van city]

18z says maybe I see a few rain/snow showers at my parent's house next week.

JMA is quite nice as well.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z GFS making things interesting quickly

 

Day 6.5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017122018/156/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Yep... Here is what it looks like hour 114 to 168... Very interesting indeed.

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

hmmm... block is still there (in a big way) unlike the EURO...

 

[Front Ranger]

Where they live?

 

Near Roseburg, OR.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nonetheless, the features we're looking for with the Aleutian ridge and offshore ridge show up after day 4-5. I remain very optimistic and encouraged.

[TT-SEA]

18z says maybe I see a few rain/snow showers at my parent's house next week.

 

Very very exciting indeed... something falling from the sky in the PNW is very rare. 

[TT-SEA]

A massive blizzard in the upper Midwest next week on the GFS:

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

18Z shows a big time SE ridge.

[Front Ranger]

Very very exciting indeed... something falling from the sky in the PNW is very rare. 

 

Anything falling from the sky has been very rare here the past couple months.

[Front Ranger]

Nonetheless, the features we're looking for with the Aleutian ridge and offshore ridge show up after day 4-5. I remain very optimistic and encouraged.

 

Anything beyond day 6 at this point just has to be taken with a John Goodman-sized grain of salt.

[BLI snowman]

A massive blizzard in the upper Midwest next week on the GFS:

 

 

 

Snow falling from the sky in late December in the upper Midwest is very very rare indeed.

[luvssnow_spokane]

looks to be a heck of a winter in the central and eat part of the US. WOW!

[BLI snowman]

Check out the NAVGEM guys. This would totally be snow if it were 3 degrees colder.

 

 

 

[Jbolin]

Very very exciting indeed... something falling from the sky in the PNW is very rare. 

Oh for f***s sake 

[Deweydog]

I bet the ensembles show improvement!!!

[TT-SEA]

My son at Snoqualmie Summit today... invincible!  

 

https://vimeo.com/248230240

[TT-SEA]

Snow falling from the sky in late December in the upper Midwest is very very rare indeed.

 

A blizzard is pretty cool... it looks impressive on that map.  

[Jbolin]

My son at Snoqualmie Summit today... invincible!  

 

https://vimeo.com/248230240

I'm no expert skier but it looks like he was about to eat in the last 1 or 2 seconds

[TT-SEA]

I'm no expert skier but it looks like he was about to eat s**t in the last 1 or 2 seconds

 

He did fall a little at the end... but he trimmed the video before sending to me.   I asked the same thing.   

[Front Ranger]

I bet the ensembles show improvement!!!

The trend can't be stopped!

[GobBluth]

hmmm... block is still there (in a big way) unlike the EURO...

 

gfs_z500a_namer_30.png

It does look like the block is trying to consolidate.