December Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

Flying to FL today. Probably will be a blizzard here while I’m gone..seems to work out that way most years.

[Gradient Keeper]

Flying to FL today. Probably will be a blizzard here while I’m gone..seems to work out that way most years.

Safe travels

[Deweydog]

Flying to FL today. Probably will be a blizzard here while I’m gone..seems to work out that way most years.

You're not supposed to tell anyone where you're being relocated, goofball.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM not running.... Analog?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Split flow he’ll.

[Blizzard777]

Snow officially Gone in my yard overnight. Not a trace left

Temp a toasty 43 degrees

Good luck up North on your storm today

 

Jim

[luvssnow_spokane]

12zGFS   <_ models have been just turble.... winter cancel until mlk day. thats when we will get days of cold and marginal snow above. bring it>

[ShawniganLake]

Snow officially Gone in my yard overnight. Not a trace left

Temp a toasty 43 degrees

Good luck up North on your storm today

 

Jim

A bit of freezing rain in whatcom county and the Fraser valley otherwise today is probably a non event everywhere. 33 with moderate rain here.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Not enough east wind density up there?

Time for some new material Phil.

[MossMan]

[BLI snowman]

Two things to watch for, since I've discovered my backyard is insanely overdue for it:

 

Snow falling between January 19 and February 4. The last time that any even fell during this calendar period here was 2009. That is a little freakish and probably unprecedented.

 

Measurable snow without the assistance of offshore flow/east winds. We missed out on the slop late last winter, so the last time I think anything of the sort occurred here was March 2012. Again, that is an insanely long time for our snow climo.

[ShawniganLake]

12z GEM not running.... Analog?

Nothing terribly exciting happens in the next 10 days on that run. Tropical tidbits is having issues. Some of the mesoscale models aren’t updating this morning either.

 

[GobBluth]

split flow hell in the long term gfs

[TT-SEA]

12Z WRF shows lots of snow on Vancouver Island and from Bellingham northward... most of this falls tomorrow into Saturday morning.  

 

[MossMan]

Looks a bit icy up around Sumas.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z WRF shows lots of snow on Vancouver Island and from Bellingham northward... most of this falls tomorrow into Saturday morning.

 

I just saw that. Hard to buy that solution

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS, Ugly, Progressive, Split flow. 12z GEM was more looking far more promising due to Aleutian ridging and block, but cut-off low messed things up. The split flow looked very un-Nina. The switch to -PNA should lead to better looking/colder runs in days ahead.

[MossMan]

12z GFS, Ugly, Progressive, Split flow. 12z GEM was more looking far more promising due to Aleutian ridging and block, but cut-off low messed things up. The split flow looked very un-Nina. The switch to -PNA should lead to better looking/colder runs in days ahead.

I will take anything over split flow hell...let’s hope the GFS is dead wrong.

Also I don’t know if my sensor is malfunctioning or not but the temp has gone from 37 to 43 in the last half hour.

 

Edit: probably accurate, the south wind just started to really increase.

[ShawniganLake]

Ensembles were a bit of a disaster. GEFS moving towards to less favourable 0z EPS.

[BLI snowman]

Ensembles were a bit of a disaster. GEFS moving towards to less favourable 0z EPS.

 

Beginning to look like we can effectively write off the first half of January. And once these split-flow patterns get going it can take an awfully long while for a favorable pattern reset.

[MossMan]

Ensembles were a bit of a disaster. GEFS moving towards to less favourable 0z EPS.

Dec 2008 snow pics to help with our sadness.

[Deweydog]

Two things to watch for, since I've discovered my backyard is insanely overdue for it:

 

Snow falling between January 19 and February 4. The last time that any even fell during this calendar period here was 2009. That is a little freakish and probably unprecedented.

 

Measurable snow without the assistance of offshore flow/east winds. We missed out on the slop late last winter, so the last time I think anything of the sort occurred here was March 2012. Again, that is an insanely long time for our snow climo.

The late-mid January is about the only period that is screaming negative on the dueness index.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like weather.us is becoming a pay site. No more free Euro?

[MossMan]

Beginning to look like we can effectively write off the first half of January. And once these split-flow patterns get going it can take an awfully long while for a favorable pattern reset.

Yeah we better hope it doesn’t happen or we can write off the next few weeks at least. I don’t know why it’s so hard to get out of a split flow once it happens but yeah we are screwed if so. That is the worst winter weather pattern for us by far.

[ShawniganLake]

A less confident snow wizard might help move things along.

[Parksvillewx]

I just saw that. Hard to buy that solution

 

NAM shows its also. The track of the low tomorrow is very similar to last Tuesday. 

[MossMan]

NAM shows its also. The track of the low tomorrow is very similar to last Tuesday.

To me it seems like the last few runs have trended north with the low....which is too bad.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Portland could reach 40 F today.

 

Meanwhile a few days of cold (by Southern California standards) weather before Christmas caused my mom to get bronchitis, which happens every winter.

[BLI snowman]

The late-mid January is about the only period that is screaming negative on the dueness index.

 

Having two of our better winter climo weeks virtually taken off the calendar for 8 years is crazy. If you look further back, it's not as if 2009, 2008, or 2002 were much to write home about either. So basically 21 years for a high impact event.

[MossMan]

Having two of our better winter climo weeks virtually taken off the calendar for 8 years is crazy. If you look further back, it's not as if 2009, 2008, or 2002 were much to write home about either. So basically 21 years for a high impact event.

Later Jan 1996 was the last time that I can remember up here anyway.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is farther north with the second low tomorrow night.    

 

That means there is no northerly flow behind the low on Saturday.     Here is Saturday morning after the low has passed up around the border... strong SW winds for all!  

 

[Parksvillewx]

To me it seems like the last few runs have trended north with the low....which is too bad.

 

Looks like I may be in a good spot still.  Slightly less cold air around then last week but it may be enough to do the trick! 

 

Last Tuesday WRF

 

 

 

Tomorrow

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Saturday night per the 12Z ECMWF when the precip has ended... down here we are not "dangerously close" to anything.    Except lots of rain.  

 

[Phil]

Time for some new material Phil.

That’s the first time I’ve used that one.

[Jesse]

Pretty crazy how Niño-ish some of the models look, considering we’re in a la Niña

[Phil]

Nothing terribly exciting happens in the next 10 days on that run. Tropical tidbits is having issues. Some of the mesoscale models aren’t updating this morning either.

 

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Baffin Bay vortex of death.

[MossMan]

Total snow through Saturday night per the 12Z ECMWF when the precip has ended... down here we are not "dangerously close" to anything. Except lots of rain.

 

I think we can write an end to any frozen goodness for a while now. Hopefully mid to late January can deliver again.

[Phil]

Pretty crazy how Niño-ish some of the models look, considering we’re in a la Niña

Did you see my warm pool thread yesterday? It’s definitely helping in regards to the off-kilter low-frequency tendencies displayed by the NPAC surf zone in recent years.

[Jesse]

Looking like Phil’s biggest bust in history. This one is epic. I hope no one ever forgets it.

[Jesse]

Did you see my warm pool thread yesterday? It’s definitely helping in regards to the off-kilter low-frequency tendencies displayed by the NPAC surf zone.

I don’t know what that means. But you can only hide behind jargon for so long until the crushing wrongness of your predictions come home to roost for good.