Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The long awaited, much anticipated, and well predicted Winter Solstice Storm is nearly upon us. Who will cash in on the snow??? Could this actually put an end to the snow drought for many on here??? The devil is in the details but trends are favoring our first widespread winter storm to effect our sub forum. 12z Euro.,.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The long awaited, much anticipated, and well predicted Winter Solstice Storm is nearly upon us. Who will cash in on the snow??? Could this actually put an end to the snow drought for many on here??? The devil is in the details but trends are favoring our first widespread winter storm to effect our sub forum. 12z Euro.,..How much rain does the southern end of that have to overcome? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 How much rain does the southern end of that have to overcome?Not much at all. Most precip falls as snow north of the 0c thermals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 And the sharp snow gradient from northern Iowa to southern Iowa continues into another winter. If all I'm going to get from this is some light rain followed by a half inch of slop at the end, forget it. Keep the entire thing north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121612/conus/ecmwf_mslp_conus_138.png Surface low is too far north for those south of HWY20 to get anything other than back end flurries. Reminds me of the last 2 winters almost exactly lol. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 I think we might want to use the kuchera method though. Much of the snow is delayed behind the front in the 20-25 degree air on the EURO. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 There is a confused look on the Euro with another 3rd piece of energy that rides up the trailing cold front all the way from deep TX. With all these peices of energy around it’s going to be interesting tracking this thing. Maybe it goes back to a 980’s storm and bundles all the energy into a doozy. Could be another last min trend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 There is a confused look on the Euro with another 3rd piece of energy that rides up the trailing cold front all the way from deep TX. With all these peices of energy around it’s going to be interesting tracking this thing. Maybe it goes back to a 980’s storm and bundles all the energy into a doozy. Could be another last min trend.As long as the south doesn't get hit with any winter weather I'm good with anything else lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 There is a confused look on the Euro with another 3rd piece of energy that rides up the trailing cold front all the way from deep TX. With all these peices of energy around it’s going to be interesting tracking this thing. Maybe it goes back to a 980’s storm and bundles all the energy into a doozy. Could be another last min trend.Which would turn the storm into a hard upper GL's cutter and screw everyone but MN. I'll take a hard pass on that if it means a hard cutter is in the cards. I just want to see something greater than an inch at this point. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Which would turn the storm into a hard upper GL's cutter and screw everyone but MN. I'll take a hard pass on that if it means a hard cutter is in the cards. I just want to see something greater than an inch at this point.I agree. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Which would turn the storm into a hard upper GL's cutter and screw everyone but MN. I'll take a hard pass on that if it means a hard cutter is in the cards. I just want to see something greater than an inch at this point.Not if it digs and when I looked at the 500mb vorticity it looks like it wants to dig. At this point, anything is on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Not if it digs and when I looked at the 500mb vorticity it looks like it wants to dig. At this point, anything is on the table.Wants to and actually does are two different things. It digging further into, say, OK is still in the cards for sure, but getting a storm to dig that much is challenging. Especially if it wants to rapidly deepen into a GL's bomb. The absolute best case if it were to bomb out, would be to ever so slightly deepen as it dug into OK then lift northward into MO and begin deepening at a greater rate. Any sooner than that, and it will travel poleward more quickly. Which, I'd like to avoid if at all possible. I should also say that I think the storm getting to the 980s in any degree seems unlikely to me. Particularly because no models want to do that and have seemed to like a ~1000mb low in general. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 One saving grace for those in mn/wi is the strong high to the north You can see it on the euro. Won’t cut into it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Wants to and actually does are two different things. It digging further into, say, OK is still in the cards for sure, but getting a storm to dig that much is challenging. Especially if it wants to rapidly deepen into a GL's bomb. The absolute best case if it were to bomb out, would be to ever so slightly deepen as it dug into OK then lift northward into MO and begin deepening at a greater rate. Any sooner than that, and it will travel poleward more quickly. Which, I'd like to avoid if at all possible. I should also say that I think the storm getting to the 980s in any degree seems unlikely to me. Particularly because no models want to do that and have seemed to like a ~1000mb low in general.Ya, 980’s is a long shot but a stronger storm is still possible. I was referring back to the 12z run from 2 days ago when I made that comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 12z GFS/EURO had two snowfall doughnut holes over the next 10 days. One in SD into MN and the usual KS into MO. It will be interesting to see how all of this unfolds beginning with this first system. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 12z Euro Control went north with the snow band and hits MSP/N WI/UP....12z EPS 2" mean still paints N IA/S WI on north... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Riding the southern edge 5 days out normally doesn't boad well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Not feeling the best about this one. If it hoes north thats been the trend all winter Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Riding the train Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Im not gonna live and die by one run though. Still a good shot Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Was mentioned that we're at least a day away from good sampling. Patience required with this for sure! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 18z looks a bit south and holding more energy back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 There’s precip from the Rockies all the way to Michigan at hr 126 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 18z gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017121618&fh=144&r=us_mw&dpdt= 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 18z GFS with a step NW like like GEM and Euro it looks like. Gosaints reeling in the first big dog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 18z GFs even worse for the I80 corridor in Iowa. I’ve seen this movie before. It always ends the same way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The same areas that did well the past 2 seasons seem to be in for it again this storm. It's 5 days out yet, but still. A common theme is a common theme. It seems like this always happens. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just wonderful lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Afternoon disco from MPX: Initially, a warm air advection regime will commence lateWednesday across central Minnesota where the best potential of afew inches of snow will fall. The bigger question is the stormmoving out of the Rockies and into the plains late in the week.The set up is a classic Colorado, or Plains low which does supporta large swath of heavy snow on the northwest side of the surfacelow track. Using CIPS analogs, valid around Wednesday afternoon,does support a swath of warm air advection snowfall across centralMinnesota. The schematic of the CIPS analogs does have a smallbut heavy band of snow across west central to central Minnesota(1st analog is December 9, 2012). However, it looks as though thiscould be two systems interacting, and not so much on the initialwarm air advection regime. Looking at stormdata during thatperiod in 2012, there was a significant blizzard in westernMinnesota, where some areas in west central Minnesota receiving afoot or more of snow. I don`t want anyone to get excited for a lotof snow, but the potential is there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The edge of this will be up near ia MN border when all said and done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Thats a little bit much don't you think DVN? 80% snow POPs at this range. That's how you jinx a storm 101. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 18z GFS is also picking up on the energy that the 12z Euro showed coming out of the deep south....so many things going on, needless to say, it's going to be interesting tracking this complex system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Ah this is a bunch of crap what Im seeing lately.Not feeling the christmas spirit as I did yesterday lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Ah this is a bunch of crap what Im seeing lately.Not feeling the christmas spirit as I did yesterday lolDude you're living and dying every run. Chill. Gonna be a long rest of the winter if you keep that attitude. I learned the hard way. Does it look good right now? No, not for us, but what are you gonna do about it? 5 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Per NOAA: The second half of next week will be impacted by a low pressuresystem that will develop over the central plains and pushnortheastward starting on Thursday. The warm front will lift throughSE Michigan during the afternoon and lead to a chance of showersthat will increase in likelihood and coverage overnight as the lowpressure center approaches. Precipitation type forecast confidenceis still low as models continue to diverge on placement and timingof the low. If the low passes to the north, a rain to snow evolutionwill be most likely, but if the low passes over Ohio, we will stayon the cold side and an all-snow solution is more likely.Regardless, widespread precipitation is expected Friday. Anothercold airmass will settle into the region for next weekend in thewake of this system. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Dude you're living and dying every run. Chill. Gonna be a long rest of the winter if you keep that attitude. I learned the hard way. Does it look good right now? No, not for us, but what are you gonna do about it?I will complain all I want. I was more patient years ago when things were good lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 I will complain all I want. I was more patient years ago when things were good lolOkay... These are the types of people that run facebook weather pages folks, remember that. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Life isnt about being unrealistically positive, the fact is the trend for things is to go north and east. I know enough to know it could change again. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 And so what if I complain, snowlover is from Omaha and hes a pain in the a**. I know things can change but Im pissed and want snow and i need some place to vent at. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Ironically the 18z GEFS looks much better for e Iowa than previous runs despite the Op model taking a turn for the worst 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.