MossMan Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 The mother-load of cold air is about to drop apon us just after hour 384! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 If things trend just a little more favorable mid week next week that will be our warning shot...with the motherload smashing us a week or so later...it’s about to get good! Real good! Currently cloudy and 50 degrees. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 The mother-load of cold air is about to drop apon us just after hour 384!FWIW, at day 16, the blocking looks pretty ragged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 The mother-load of cold air is about to drop apon us just after hour 384! The mother-load of cold air is about to drop apon us just after hour 384! Wish it had the 850's, as it is hard to tell if there is a motherload of cold air there or not. Also, the ECMWF monthly forecast for February just came out, not looking good for cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 FWIW, at day 16, the blocking looks pretty ragged.That will improve in the days to come. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 http://q13fox.com/2018/01/03/hunker-down-next-3-months-will-be-cooler-and-wetter-than-normal/ “Q13 News Chief Meteorologist Walter Kelley said this just means the La Niña, that has been influencing our weather for the past couple months, is continuing into 2018.” "It means through March we may still see a little lowland snow. Not big, giant, significant snow storms but an inch here and inch there," Kelley explained. Walter Kelley says not to worry, we won’t have anything big the rest of winter. Guaranteed we will get slammed now. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 True, he is the king weenie/troll here. Although spending months pumping us up for a historic Jananuary, then actually complaining about your real winter weather being “too cold” there after busting terribly for us comes off pretty clueless at best.I made this video for you a few hours ago. We have a busted pipe somewhere in the bowels of our house, but it’s so cold that it hasn’t had the chance to go boom yet. The water isn’t coming from the hose..it’s leaking from the opening out of the brick. We turned he heat on when we got home, obviously, and it must have melted some ice deeper in the piping, causing the leakage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciI7bySSt5E&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 yuck we are finishedWell, if you believe the really long range Euro, you should look outside and see the 2 feet of snow on the ground at your house, and the temps in the low teens, because for weeks the long range Euro was showing exactly that for early January. How did that work out? Looks like a conflict between the weeklies and the monthlies. Or maybe it is calling for a 2nd half blowtorch, with a colder first half. Hard to say. Yes, it would be better to see a really cold signal, but these really long range forecasts are not terribly reliable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Well, if you believe the really long range Euro, you should look outside and see the 2 feet of snow on the ground at your house, and the temps in the low teens, because for weeks the long range Euro was showing exactly that for early January. How did that work out? Looks like a conflict between the weeklies and the monthlies. Or maybe it is calling for a 2nd half blowtorch, with a colder first half. Hard to say. Yes, it would be better to see a really cold signal, but these really long range forecasts are not terribly reliable.Right I do remember January looking awesome. I take it with a grain of salt but still not encouraging to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Well, Michael Ventrice doesn’t agree with my take on February. His MJO analogs basically call for another prolonged warm pool forcing event after a few weeks of +EPO/US blowtorching. I’m not sure if/how he’s filtering his analogs for external parameters, though, so I’m not sure what to think. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 That will improve in the days to come.Did they recently open a Kool-Aid stand near your place? There is nothing out there that shows anything but a cooler and wetter regime. The ridging is all transitory and very little cold air in place to our north. I think we are moving into a normal La Nina pattern that doesn't necessarily promise anything but lowland rain (possibly some lumpy) as far a we can see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 I made this video for you a few hours ago. We have a busted pipe somewhere in the bowels of our house, but it’s so cold that it hasn’t had the chance to go boom yet. The water isn’t coming from the hose..it’s leaking from the opening out of the brick. We turned he heat on when we got home, obviously, and it must have melted some ice deeper in the piping, causing the leakage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciI7bySSt5E&feature=youtu.be&app=desktopDon't talk about cold! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 I made this video for you a few hours ago. We have a busted pipe somewhere in the bowels of our house, but it’s so cold that it hasn’t had the chance to go boom yet. The water isn’t coming from the hose..it’s leaking from the opening out of the brick. We turned he heat on when we got home, obviously, and it must have melted some ice deeper in the piping, causing the leakage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciI7bySSt5E&feature=youtu.be&app=desktopSorry to see that, hopefully not too much damage. There are detectors that can alert you via text, email, etc., anytime a parameter is met, like it detects water in the basement, or temps get too cold in the basement, or a water leak behind a dishwasher/clothes washer, a water leak where your hot water tank is, etc. Can alert you before a lot of damage is done. https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=lp_486548011_nr_n_3?rh=n%3A486548011&ie=UTF8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Don't talk s**t about cold!You seem to speak pretty glowingly of February 1989. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 True, he is the king weenie/troll here. Although spending months pumping us up for a historic Jananuary, then actually complaining about your real winter weather being “too cold” there after busting terribly for us comes off pretty clueless at best.FWIW, I get what you’re saying. However, I’m only complaining about this dry, snowless, pipe-bursting cold air (which I hate), and a blizzard that missed me, but delayed my flight anyway because my plane came from Philly. That’s something I think you’d be pissed off about too. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Sorry to see that, hopefully not too much damage. There are detectors that can alert you via text, email, etc., anytime a parameter is met, like it detects water in the basement, or temps get too cold in the basement, or a water leak behind a dishwasher/clothes washer, a water leak where your hot water tank is, etc. Can alert you before a lot of damage is done. https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=lp_486548011_nr_n_3?rh=n%3A486548011&ie=UTF8Thanks man. Definitely will look into that. We do have a plumber coming tomorrow to (hopefully) avert what looks to be an impending disaster. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 You seem to speak pretty glowingly of February 1989.It was/would be awesome. Just as would be an August 1981 repeat only hotter and snowier. Both can be a serious pain in the a** though. #weeniesliveintherealworldtoo 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Did they recently open a Kool-Aid stand near your place? There is nothing out there that shows anything but a cooler and wetter regime. The ridging is all transitory and very little cold air in place to our north. I think we are moving into a normal La Nina pattern that doesn't necessarily promise anything but lowland rain (possibly some lumpy) as far a we can see.My trusty gut! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 My trusty gut!Agreed... Even in the nearer term it is not horrible - NOT epic either, but I feel in the even longer range things could improve. FANTASY ISLAND LAND Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Hrs 80-120 are something to watch. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Did they recently open a Kool-Aid stand near your place? There is nothing out there that shows anything but a cooler and wetter regime. The ridging is all transitory and very little cold air in place to our north. I think we are moving into a normal La Nina pattern that doesn't necessarily promise anything but lowland rain (possibly some lumpy) as far a we can see.Dude. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 It was/would be awesome. Just as would be an August 1981 repeat only hotter and snowier. Both can be a serious pain in the a** though. #weeniesliveintherealworldtooSort of a no brainier. Just like not complaining about cold to people who are aching for the interesting weather you spent months forecasting for them should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Hrs 80-120 are something to watch. There is some potential there I think for northern folks. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 All I really see on the models is a lot of mildness in the near term and then some fantasy land 1,500’ snow levels. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 All I really see on the models is a lot of mildness in the near term and then some fantasy land 1,500’ snow levels. The pattern setting up after the 17th has the most potential by far of anything we have seen this winter. It may not develop into anything exciting, but it could transition towards something better. The Christmas eve event was really pretty fluky and definitely the ceiling of what that pattern could have reasonably produced (Once it became apparent 99% of the cold air was sliding east.). Yeah the models are showing nothing exciting at face value, but we are seeing baby steps forward with almost every run, and knowing Nina climo we know this is when things are likely to enter a more Nina-Like forcing state. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 The pattern setting up after the 17th has the most potential by far of anything we have seen this winter. It may not develop into anything exciting, but it could transition towards something better. The Christmas eve event was really pretty fluky and definitely the ceiling of what that pattern could have reasonably produced (Once it became apparent 99% of the cold air was sliding east.). Yeah the models are showing nothing exciting at face value, but we are seeing baby steps forward with almost every run, and knowing Nina climo we know this is when things are likely to enter a more Nina-Like forcing state.I don’t necessarily disagree with any of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I don't unnecessarily disagree with Andrew. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 The pattern setting up after the 17th has the most potential by far of anything we have seen this winter. It may not develop into anything exciting, but it could transition towards something better. The Christmas eve event was really pretty fluky and definitely the ceiling of what that pattern could have reasonably produced (Once it became apparent 99% of the cold air was sliding east.). Yeah the models are showing nothing exciting at face value, but we are seeing baby steps forward with almost every run, and knowing Nina climo we know this is when things are likely to enter a more Nina-Like forcing state.#aweekandahalfafterMLK Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 All I really see on the models is a lot of mildness in the near term and then some fantasy land 1,500’ snow levels.Could end up okay for My Location but doesn't look too promising for my location. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I hope it snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I don't unnecessarily disagree with Andrew. Seems like Jesse gets to live rent-free in your head... nice deal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Seems like Jesse gets to live rent-free in your head... nice deal. It’s decent here but there’s a lot of weird old Nazi memorabilia in the attic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Seems like Jesse gets to live rent-free in your head... nice deal.Jealous much? Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Where is the cold and snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I hope it snows.Did you know that when it snows my eyes become large and the light that you shine can be seen? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 It’s decent here but there’s a lot of weird old Nazi memorabilia in the attic.You can look, but you can't touch. That stuff is worth more than your 8 year college tuition. 2 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 The pattern setting up after the 17th has the most potential by far of anything we have seen this winter. It may not develop into anything exciting, but it could transition towards something better. The Christmas eve event was really pretty fluky and definitely the ceiling of what that pattern could have reasonably produced (Once it became apparent 99% of the cold air was sliding east.). Yeah the models are showing nothing exciting at face value, but we are seeing baby steps forward with almost every run, and knowing Nina climo we know this is when things are likely to enter a more Nina-Like forcing state.Yes, but then again, the MJO/tropical forcing that’s producing this pattern change won’t be located over the Indo/Maritime domain forever..eventually it’ll propagate back over the Pacific again..probably in late January. I really want to see equatorward-shifted WPAC forcing this time, rather than the expanded/off-equator WPAC forcing that’s been so problematic lately. If not, I’m not sure how we’ll get there. Maybe a SSW could shake things up enough to make something happen (it would certainly pull forcing equatorward). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Well, Michael Ventrice doesn’t agree with my take on February. His MJO analogs basically call for another prolonged warm pool forcing event after a few weeks of +EPO/US blowtorching. I’m not sure if/how he’s filtering his analogs for external parameters, though, so I’m not sure what to think.He's usually pretty accurate with his predictions. I'm hoping he's wrong on this one. It goes in line with what the CPC is predicting though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 We're f*cked. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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