1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[Craig-OmahaWX]

If navy is right then itd would pull the largest coup ever

[Minny_Weather]

This would be a lot easier to take if this was just another one of your “average” 6-8” snowstorms, but instead it’s a powerhouse with a large area of 12+” snowfall and at least 40 mph winds. I wouldn’t care if it all melted the next day if I could experience 15” of snow, 40 mph winds, and 3-5’ drifts. And it’s only missing me by about 75 miles

Yeah this would be less awful if it wasn't so D**n rare here. Climo does not support widespread 12" amounts anywhere in the state, those are once in every 10 year storms around here. And we're missing it cuz of a D**n shaft.

[GDR]

Ne Nebraska gets hammered on the 0z

[Minny_Weather]

Ne Nebraska gets hammered on the 0z

Northeast Nebraska can eat it. All they've gotten over the past few years from our screw jobs has made me salty.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

No even missing 2 to 4 inches would piss me off.

[Jaycee]

Yeah that’s about it for me in this thread. Congrats CentralNeb and folks in MN. Rooting for some big totals for ya.

 

 

:’(

[snowstorm83]

Yeah I think it's safe to say we've lost this one. February is still a favorable month for snowstorms so I think a good storm is still in the cards, but even then it'll be almost impossible to even reach our seasonal average at this point.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nothings changing so im done with this thread. We made a good run at it. Prob the only good storm of the winter so as far as im concerned we probably wont get more then 10 inches this winter.

[NEJeremy]

GFS is southeast and the surface low crawls along. Surface low is stationary in northeast Kansas from hour 30-33 and then creeps east from there never making into Nebraska. Hour 39 it looks like it’s maybe moved 100 miles in the last 9 hours and is over KC. With all that it’s still northeast Nebraska that gets nailed again. What a great track for Omaha and Lincoln and still nothing!

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I think it's safe to say we've lost this one. February is still a favorable month for snowstorms so I think a good storm is still in the cards, but even then it'll be almost impossible to even reach our seasonal average at this point.

I don't see how we even reach 20" with a respectable February, let alone make average. Let's assume we get the best case scenario of 2" from this, that'll put us at ~8". I don't see much potential for appreciable snow for the rest of the month, which takes us to February. February is climo-wise the best month we have for big snowstorms, but we'd need 12" to get 20", which isn't laughably unrealistic, but seeing the AWESOME storm track we have to deal with, I don't see it happening. That leaves us with March and April slushfests. So yeah reaching our average of 26" is impossible.

[St Paul Storm]

0z GFS. I’m between the 7.3” and the 9.5”. Look at that gradient. Good luck MPX. You’re gonna need it.

[Stormgeek]

0z GFS. I’m between the 7.3” and the 9.5”. Look at that gradient. Good luck MPX. You’re gonna need it.

Barely an inch here.

[gosaints]

Barely an inch here.

Still 2 full model suites tomorrow for changes

[Minny_Weather]

Do all the Lincoln and Omaha posters wanna go on a road trip to Norfolk with me with a bunch of hair dryers so we can melt the snow there?

[Stormgeek]

Still 2 full model suites tomorrow for changes

This is very true. I have just been feeling with today's runs that it will skirt just to my south. Obviously with a gradient this sharp it is more of a now cast to see how things set up. Hoping I finally score something, but whatever happens I can't influence. Hehehe

[St Paul Storm]

No GGEM tonight? It probably burned itself out.

[gosaints]

No GGEM tonight? It probably burned itself out.

Storm is so slow it figured it could take a run off

[St Paul Storm]

Storm is so slow it figured it could take a run off

No doubt. This is ridiculous.

[WBadgersW]

Mmm models have been showing a nice little bullseye I SE WI. We'll see if it amounts to anything.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm actually eager to see Euro. It's been pretty consistent with wrapping around sooner which would be good for us.

[Minny_Weather]

Um... Euro cuts the low so it rides along the NE/IA border.

[Minny_Weather]

Um... Euro cuts the low so it rides along the NE/IA border.

Then randomly it turns SE back into Central IA.

 

Euro looks awesome, heavy snow one county away, but I think it's trolling.

[snowstorm83]

Euro is a *****. It held out hope the longest with the last storm.

[Andrew NE]

Norfolk and Sioux City get smashed on 00z Euro

[gabel23]

I'm hoping the Euro for the win, would give me a foot. The GFS give me 6 and the Nam gives me nothing. That means we all have an    f n chance at this thing. Gonna be a lot of now casting and hoping the rain/snow line pivots quickly and the storms to the southeast don't rob our moisture......

[gabel23]

The Euro was wrong with pretty much all the storms for our area so far this year...last year we were rooting for the GFS. I'm going to watch how this plays out for the next time this storm comes around. If you go by the LRC that would be sometime around the first week of March. 

[gabel23]

This is gonna be one hell of a snow storm for some parts of the state. Hopefully we have some surprises waiting for us in the morning....

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO
NOON CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult
to near impossible travel conditions, including during the
morning commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 11
inches, with localized amounts up to 16 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Nebraska, north central Nebraska,
southwest Nebraska and west central Nebraska.

 

 

 

 

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow with strong winds expected. Plan on difficult
to impossible travel conditions, including during the morning
commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 11 inches,
with localized amounts up to 14 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Near blizzard conditions expected, even
after the snow ends. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will
result in near zero visibility at times in significant blowing
and drifting snow.

[snowstorm83]

WSWs changed to BLIZZARD warnings all the way from Colorado to Minnesota. Maybe a low end WWA coming for Lincoln...

 

EDIT: Haha! Nope! Not even that for Lincoln.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow. They upgraded to blizzard warning

[Money]

Gfs came way SE this run as well

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings, North Platte, and Goodland KS. all upgraded to blizzard warnings. They said last night they would need to coordinate their decision with each other.

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings latest update for those that might be interested:

 

Winter Storm Update...

The forecast models are indicating another slight shift in storm

track towards the southeast...which is putting more of our

forecast area under the gun for heavy 6 plus inch snowfall

amounts. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS are both indicating a big swath

of 10 to 15 inch snowfall amounts for the area that we upgraded to

a blizzard warning. The NAM model and some of the higher

resolution models continue to be just a little further northwest

than the GFS and ECMWF regarding the heaviest snowfall area, but

have also been trending southeast.

 

Upgraded to Blizzard Warning and expanded headlines southeast due

to slight shift in storm track.

 

Blizzard Warning...

Model guidance is pretty clear that we should see sustained north

northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph late

tonight into Monday. These strong winds along with improving

confidence in seeing significant snowfall amounts was enough to

warrant the upgrade to blizzard warning. The falling snow and wind

is expected to persist for numerous hours allowing for

significant blowing and drifting snow and a prolonged period of

poor visibility of less than one quarter mile and likely near zero

in rural areas by late tonight into Monday. Drifts of 3 to 5 feet

are certainly possible in rural areas within the blizzard warned

area.

 

Possible winter headline adjustments...

If the NAM and other higher resolution models continue the tend to

shift the heavier snowband further southeast and eventually more

in line with the latest 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF, then an expansion

of the blizzard warning towards the southeast may become needed.

Some counties to keep an eye on for a possible upgrade to a

blizzard warning if this more southeasterly track holds include:

York, Clay, Webster, Smith, Rooks.

 

Winter storm impacts...

People within the blizzard warned area should plan on many roads

especially in rural areas being impassible by late tonight into

Monday morning. Snow removal on Monday will be difficult given the

continued strong winds into the afternoon even after the snow

diminishes.

[Tom]

"Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard...." Glad at least some posters are scoring the seasons first Blizzard for some of our members in our subforum. @CentralNeb, you ready?? I expect to see some pics and vids if you are able. Congrats! Gable/Clint, are you in a Blizzard Warning?

[CentralNebWeather]

"Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard...." Glad at least some posters are scoring thew seasons first Blizzard for some of our members in our subforum. @CentralNeb, you ready?? I expect to see some pics and vids if you are able. Congrats! Gable/Clint, are you in a Blizzard Warning?

Going to usher at church then to the store for groceries then home. Everything will be closed tomorrow and then we see about the cleanup and school Tuesday. Pictures will be coming.

[Tom]

Going to usher at church then to the store for groceries then home. Everything will be closed tomorrow and then we see about the cleanup and school Tuesday. Pictures will be coming.

Stock up that fridge!  BTW, the snow you get from this storm will likely not melt till prob sometime in March.  Unlike the Feb '16 Blizzard (A.K.A GHD-2.0), you won't have to deal with a torch that melts it all away.  00z EPS beginning to trend more towards the LRC and finishing the month off cold in the Plains/Upper MW/MW and then bringing down the arctic hammer just after GHD.  The opening week of Feb will kick start what I believe will be a wild looking month if your a fan of all elements of wintry weather.

[Tom]

I saw the RPM model paint 14" for MSP and close to 2 feet just S/SW of the metro....there is a sharp gradient just north of the metro and in SE MN.  Quite a nail biter if I were near Rochester and north side of MSP.

 

Edit: Mixing in SE MN could be avoided if the colder temps aloft mix down.

[gosaints]

Thermals are really messy. No clue what will fall.

 

Still 24 hours from game time. Plan to road trip tomorrow if I have too. If the rgem scores a coup I won't leave the driveway.

[Minny_Weather]

My God that is one stereotypical dry slot on HRRR. Downright incredible how this always happens right here.

[Tom]

My God that is one stereotypical dry slot on HRRR. Downright incredible how this always happens right here.

12z NAM is creeping OMA...my goodness, you can literally be 1 county away from 10"+ totals to your NW...

[Money]

A little farther south with the snowband..