Tony Posted January 28, 2018 Report Share Posted January 28, 2018 Better you see this kind of run today instead of next Friday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 I have a feeling we will all be fully immersed in this system by Tuesday looking at models religiously lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 I have a feeling we will all be fully immersed in this system by Tuesday looking at models religiously lol.Seeing how things are trending I think this storm will be written off by most by Tuesday. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Yeah so much for that "Huge open to February system". And back to ridging after this system lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Feeling our clipper/overrunning snow event this weekend is gonna be an Iowa Classic 1". 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 At least Norfolk will probably find a way to somehow get 10" out of this 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 At least Norfolk will probably find a way to somehow get 10" out of thisLOL Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 CMC-- (just posting it because I think someone has posted each of it's runs lately) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 At least Norfolk will probably find a way to somehow get 10" out of this******* hate Norfolk. They can go **** themselves. I'm showing no class towards them deservedly. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 I dont get why people act like they hate a city or region for getting snow. Like it's their fault they happen to be in the path of a system. Lol 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Well it's not their fault for getting snow, but it's their fault for calling their city Nor-fork like a bunch of weirdos. Let's just start saying Lin-corn instead of Lincoln! 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 I dont get why people act like they hate a city or region for getting snow. Like it's their fault they happen to be in the path of a system. LolYou must be from Norfolk. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Well it's not their fault for getting snow, but it's their fault for calling their city Nor-fork like a bunch of weirdos. Let's just start saying Lin-corn instead of Lincoln!Everyone who hates on us probably doesn't know how to pronounce Papillion, Beatrice, and Kearney. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 I'll say what everyone is thinking. This pattern is a straight up turd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 You must be from Norfolk.Nope. Aplington IA. Whopping 15" of snow so far this season. Completely bare ground now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 EURO coming in with a nice surprise tonight Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 My condolences, Tom. May you and your family find peace. 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 00z Euro through Sunday night...every single consecutive run has painted a different idea. I wouldn't expect anything different over the coming few days. Maybe by Thursday we'll see some consistency. Both GEFS/EPS ensemble members don't look that bad for the Super Bowl weekend system. I'm not expecting a big snow maker but a 3-6" at this point would be ideal. I think there will be another PAC wave traversing the same region during the Tue/Wed period as well. So it will remain active but I wouldn't expect any juiced up storms in this pattern but more or less frequent systems. The period that MIGHT produce a bigger storm system would be sometime between the 8th-10th that pulls down what I believe will be a brutal arctic shot if there is enough snow OTG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Trends in the CFSv2 for the month of Feb are starting to look a lot like Feb '15 with a nation divided in extreme temps. If you want a taste of summer, head to Cali or the desert SW...if you want winter, head towards the GL's and East. I would imagine the cold to shift a bit more to the west. Although, I will say, the ridge will want to fight back from the west so folks out in the Plains might have to battle a flavor of what they endured during the Thanksgiving period when record high temps were experienced. This period will likely cycle back towards the second half of the month....week 3??? We'll see. Tabitha may be in a good spot to see an active northern stream if this map verifies... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201802.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201802.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 I don't recall ever seeing a jet stream pattern across the N PAC that is locked with a Split Flow in the E PAC and a raging East Asian jet in the W PAC over the next 2 weeks. No wonder the WPO is in the tank allowing for major cold to take hold across N.A. this month. http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_wpo_2018012900.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Trends in the CFSv2 for the month of Feb are starting to look a lot like Feb '15 with a nation divided in extreme temps. If you want a taste of summer, head to Cali or the desert SW...if you want winter, head towards the GL's and East. I would imagine the cold to shift a bit more to the west. Although, I will say, the ridge will want to fight back from the west so folks out in the Plains might have to battle a flavor of what they endured during the Thanksgiving period when record high temps were experienced. This period will likely cycle back towards the second half of the month....week 3??? We'll see. Tabitha may be in a good spot to see an active northern stream if this map verifies... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201802.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201802.gif Well, sometimes we score a nice hybrid clipper with a NW to SE aligned gradient as reflected in the latest map (29th), but so far this year it's been a struggle to do so, and I'd much prefer a gradient W to E or still better SW to NE. Doesn't this CFS look like a carbon-copy of other months earlier in the season. Thinking end of Nov for Dec for one? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Well, sometimes we score a nice hybrid clipper with a NW to SE aligned gradient as reflected in the latest map (29th), but so far this year it's been a struggle to do so, and I'd much prefer a gradient W to E or still better SW to NE. Doesn't this CFS look like a carbon-copy of other months earlier in the season. Thinking end of Nov for Dec for one? TBH, I can't remember...this type of pattern suggests a dominant northern stream so forget about any juicy SW systems. Like you said, you can get hybrid's in this type of pattern and one of those may be on the table Feb 8th-10th period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 We're doing such a good job of not setting record highs. If we go thru the entire DJF period without setting a record high, it'll be the first time since 2010-11. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 TBH, I can't remember...this type of pattern suggests a dominant northern stream so forget about any juicy SW systems. Like you said, you can get hybrid's in this type of pattern and one of those may be on the table Feb 8th-10th period. Well, per this morning's AFD, GRR seems pretty bullish on an active pattern going into that period.. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 The colder weather that has been well advertised to return will keepa hold on Lower Michigan through the long term. This cold air willbe accompanied by some periods of lake effect, and by at least acouple of systems that will bring some synoptic snow to the area. We will see the Wed system depart the area by Wed night, with lakeeffect snow showers trying to ramp up a bit in it`s wake. The upperjet will drop through the area later Wed night and into early Fri.It looks like Thu will see a decent depth of moisture move in aheadof a short wave moving toward the area. This combined with plenty ofover water instability could lead to snow accumulations in the NNWflow favored area. Lake effect should trend down then by Fri. This occurs as the nrnbranch of the upper jet lifts north of the area, and as sfc ridgingbuilds overhead. The break will be short however, as a system willapproach the area from the west. Warmer air advecting into the coldair mass ahead of it will help produce some snow. In addition, thelow level flow will support some Gulf moisture being ingested intothe system. We are then also monitoring another wave that could bring additionalsnow late next Sun and beyond the long term. && Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 If OAX wrote long term AFDs like this more often then I wouldn't have so much to gripe about. Using actual met terms in a long-term AFD? Nawwww. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018Reinforcing cold air arrives Thursday with the broadening midlevel trough. Highs Thursday should be in the 20s to lower 30swith a brisk north wind behind the front. As the cold air weakensit`s grip and warmer air returns, there may be a little lightsnow Friday with a weak shortwave in the flow. The GEM is moreaggressive with the snow Friday compared to Saturday. The arcticair pushes south Saturday and the EC/GFS are consistent on somelight accumulating snow with the front, however the GFS is alittle less aggressive than yesterday`s run. The arctic airremains in place for Sunday. The EC has a shortwave in the flowand some additional light snow for Sunday. This is a bit differentthan the GFS which has more of a ridge and the snow farthernorth. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Mke nws facebook posts says several inches possible Sat and Sunday. forecast discussion calls for 1 to 2 Sat. lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 The ICON Model lingers an area of snow over a lot of Nebraska almost all of this Sunday. Something to keep watching during the week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looks like another frontal passage 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 GFS model is much more progressive with the snow on Sunday. CMC is in the middle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Each run gets worse and worse and not good for anybody. Long range has not panned out at all this winter, 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Yeah the GHD storm is looking more and more like a simple frontal passage with a little snow along with it. Even the EC doesn't look like they are going to get much of anything from this. Onto the next storm 10-12 days away.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Yeah the GHD storm is looking more and more like a simple frontal passage with a little snow along with it. Even the EC doesn't look like they are going to get much of anything from this. Onto the next storm 10-12 days away.... Simply amazing how the heart of this sub from OMA to ORD can't catch a break with anything from the south. NW flow portion of analogs were dead-on accurate - sadly 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Nope. Aplington IA. Whopping 15" of snow so far this season. Completely bare ground now.I was kidding when I said you're from Norfolk. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Simply amazing how the heart of this sub from OMA to ORD can't catch a break with anything from the south. NW flow portion of analogs were dead-on accurate - sadly I'm looking for my horn so I can go toot it (lol that sounded so weird), because that was the main point in my winter forecast. Granted it's not overly accurate, especially since the upper-midwest has been getting shafted, I knew the NW flow would dominate atleast! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 I'm looking for my horn so I can go toot it (lol that sounded so weird), because that was the main point in my winter forecast. Granted it's not overly accurate, especially since the upper-midwest has been getting shafted, I knew the NW flow would dominate atleast!Bad map, you didn't include Norfolk in the jackpot zone. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Alright I’m in the jackpot with just around 5 inches this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 I think I am somewhere around 8-10 inches total, give or take an inch or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Alright I’m in the jackpot with just around 5 inches this winter Yeah, the purple west of IN/IL state line is his primary FAIL zone. Otherwise, and especially across Dixie, it's a pretty darn good map! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Each run gets worse and worse and not good for anybody. Long range has not panned out at all this winter,I was hoping Tom was right about Feb, but it looks like you had a better feel for it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 29, 2018 Report Share Posted January 29, 2018 Lol. You guys thought it would turn around Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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