Jbolin Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Forecasting snow in the Pac NW is not easy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM0Jynoflzo 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Not bad, considering this just isn't our year. Yeah, troughs are pretty rare these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 18z in progress! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 18z GFS is 6mb stronger and further West with the block at hour 156. No telling what it will do in the longer range, but that can't be a bad thing. 12z: 18z: 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Yep, definite improvement in the mid range. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 18z is slightly improved. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 It looks like we're locking this thing in now. Just minor differences in detail 18z vs 12z. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 It's a touch milder, actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Using a 1971-2000 baseline for SSTs, it’s easy to see the expanded Hadley Cell signature that’s dominated the winter so far (warm SSTAs ~ 30N/30S). Also, the Baffin Bay vortex has advected lots of warm water into the North Atlantic on SW winds. Goes to show how the ocean circulation itself can matter more than atmospheric temperatures. That’s actually a legitimately exothermic North Atlantic right now. Big time relief of the thermal load over the remainder of 2018. Hopefully this new pattern coming up will reconfigure the Pacific SST's to more of a -PDO. That should help wipe out some of the warmth around 30N...at least in the eastern part of the basin. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 18z GFS is 6mb stronger and further West with the block at hour 156. No telling what it will do in the longer range, but that can't be a bad thing. 12z:18z:7mb* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Holy crap! A reload just on the heels of the big blast. This is looking potentially top tier for a late season cold wave. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 It's a touch milder, actually. This ends up OK Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 It's a touch milder, actually.Only for a few frames around day 8.. It's colder at day 7 and colder at days 9-10. More moisture too. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 To me the situation at day 9 or 10 looks like it's not going anywhere anytime soon. Really exciting. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 All I can say is the folks in Whatcom County had better break out the heavy coats. Just one round of Fraser outflow after another. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 OMG this run is cold! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Not quite as good as the EURO from an upper level perspective, but close. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Not quite as good as the EURO from an upper level perspective, but close. The way it sustains the cold is really noteworthy. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 The way it sustains the cold is really noteworthy. Yes the EPS seems to sustain the cold too. Given how sustained upper level warmth has been I think a week or two of cold troughing would only be fair. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Looks like it could be chilly for a few days. Snow??? Stay tuned! LOL! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Yes the EPS seems to sustain the cold too. Given how sustained upper level warmth has been I think a week or two of cold troughing would only be fair. It certainly goes that way sometimes. 1962 had an utter torch for quite some time before the late Feb / early March cold wave. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Looks like a nice Mountain snow pattern setting up in the long range. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 A significant snowstorm at hour 276 for pretty much everywhere north of Portland. Incredible!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 We are way beyond any false hopes we have seen in the models this winter. This is going to happen. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Well it'll at least be a chilly rain here. Haven't had that since Christmas. If the models keep trending these lows to dive further south off the coast and down to Coos Bay or further south then it'll be even more exciting but the trend has been N/S this winter bigtime. Revenge for last year. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 We are way beyond any false hopes we have seen in the models this winter. This is going to happen.Easy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Well it'll at least be a chilly rain here. Haven't had that since Christmas.Dude... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 We are way beyond any false hopes we have seen in the models this winter. This is going to happen. Are you okay? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Have you guys learned nothing from Dr. East Wind Density? Discussing a possible weather event before Mark Nelsen has written a blog post about it is ******* retarded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 We are way beyond any false hopes we have seen in the models this winter. This is going to happen.What have you done with Tim? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Are you okay?The SSW event will end up being the key to success. We are within day 7 and all the models agree. Its going to happen. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Just got home and 18z looks great. Let's keep moving timing ahead on 00z runs tonight. --00z GFS in 3 hours 58 minutes00z GEM in 4 hours 22 minutes00z ECMWF in 6 hours 17 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Nothing is set in stone, but everything looks awesome. As for what Phil said about a dramatic model shift, let's hope he's as wrong as he was about his January megablast predictions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 The SSW event will end up being the key to success. We are within day 7 and all the models agree. Its going to happen.I concur!! AS I have shared I believe this is our best chance that we have seen all winter. I haver very little doubt for many reasons. Stoked!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Not to mention we often do well with these SSW events when they first happen. In this case the pattern is doing a 180 degree reversal. Given where we have been that can only be good.This the catalyst we have needed all winter to really make things happen. I am pumped more than ever!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Nothing is set in stone, but everything looks awesome. As for what Phil said about a dramatic model shift, let's hope he's as wrong as he was about his January megablast predictions Nice to see another capital region poster, assuming your not from some other Esquimalt? This winter is screwing with Phil, so it's a sure bet that if he makes an early prediction the opposite will happen; it's one of the best correlations we have. Mega-blast on the way. On another note, it's interesting how long the ridge has maintained it's position just offshore. It failed to come ashore like most of the models were predicted and has been hanging around at almost the same location since Feb 1st. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Well it'll at least be a chilly rain here. Haven't had that since Christmas.If the models keep trending these lows to dive further south off the coast and down to Coos Bay or further south then it'll be even more exciting but the trend has been N/S this winter bigtime. Revenge for last year.Move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Nothing is set in stone, but everything looks awesome. As for what Phil said about a dramatic model shift, let's hope he's as wrong as he was about his January megablast predictions I was talking about Eurasia, FWIW. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Nice to see another capital region poster, assuming your not from some other Esquimalt? This winter is screwing with Phil, so it's a sure bet that if he makes an early prediction the opposite will happen; it's one of the best correlations we have. Mega-blast on the way. On another note, it's interesting how long the ridge has maintained it's position just offshore. It failed to come ashore like most of the models were predicted and has been hanging around at almost the same location since Feb 1st.Ain’t that the truth. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Bummer we lost our snowpack here before this, this, it all melted during warm January(Although it snowed 6" last Thursday Night which is getting blown around right now to somewhere between 0 and 1). Nonetheless, I'm very stoked for the lowlanders! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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