February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like Seattle gets shafted again Thursday.

[Front Ranger]

I like heatwaves and thunderstorms and windstorms and marine pushes too.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[wx_statman]

Downside here are the temperatures. We had 19 in the forecast for this morning as of a few days ago. Have yet to drop below 30 at PDX since the start of this pattern.

[wxmet]

Looks like Seattle gets shafted again Thursday.

Another rain shadow event. We need a system coming in from the west or southwest which will be difficult in the current longwave pattern. 

[Deweydog]

Final total here just under 3". Really plastered everything. Stuck to sides of power poles, traffic cones, stop signs, wire fences. Neat to see.

Yeah, it was particularly sticky kush here too. Pretty.

 

#mean

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At least no more BSF!

[Deweydog]

Downside here are the temperatures. We had 19 in the forecast for this morning as of a few days ago. Have yet to drop below 30 at PDX since the start of this pattern.

May not happen until Friday morning.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like Seattle gets shafted again Thursday.

 

The cold is just unreal for this time of year too.  850s stay -10 though much of Thursday night now.  What a waste.

 

This never used to happen.  It used to be that a high percentage of cold waves like this delivered significant snow to Seattle.  Every significant cold event since Jan 2012 (and there have been several) has failed to do so.  Even the snows we have gotten the last couple of winters were without major cold in play.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, it was particularly sticky kush here too. Pretty.

 

#mean

 

I held a minute of silence for our friends to the north, before I went for my snow walk. 

 

#considerate

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wait is that a donut hole over Monmouth?

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3395/3597694566_d3da21ab0d.jpg

[Front Ranger]

Downside here are the temperatures. We had 19 in the forecast for this morning as of a few days ago. Have yet to drop below 30 at PDX since the start of this pattern.

 

Almost certainly will reach the 20s tomorrow AM, assuming the rapid clearing to the north continues. With the fresh snow cover, could really surprise.

 

Arlington down to 22.

[HighlandExperience]

The cold is just unreal for this time of year too. 850s stay -10 though much of Thursday night now. What a waste.

 

This never used to happen. It used to be that a high percentage of cold waves like this delivered significant snow to Seattle. Every significant cold event since Jan 2012 (and there have been several) has failed to do so. Even the snows we have gotten the last couple of winters were without major cold in play.

Our best chance has to be Friday into Saturday.

[wx_statman]

May not happen until Friday morning.

 

That's all we need. One good night. 

[Dave]

Staind feels your pain.

 

[Front Ranger]

Another rain shadow event. We need a system coming in from the west or southwest which will be difficult in the current longwave pattern. 

 

As snowmizer has pointed out, there are plenty of times Seattle area has scored with a system moving in from the NW. This last one was just a little too far offshore, and this next one looks to just be a little too weak as it passes by.

 

And as SW has pointed out, some of it has to do with the trough digging so deep that lows are developing better further south as they dive down the coast.

[Front Ranger]

The cold is just unreal for this time of year too.  850s stay -10 though much of Thursday night now.  What a waste.

 

This never used to happen.  It used to be that a high percentage of cold waves like this delivered significant snow to Seattle.  Every significant cold event since Jan 2012 (and there have been several) has failed to do so.  Even the snows we have gotten the last couple of winters were without major cold in play.

 

No real explanation other than very bad luck. Mythically bad.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wasn't November 85 a coast slider?

[TT-SEA]

. Yeah I got stuck in my driveway today cause my wife had the good car. The sun angle makes this snow not as good. I was ready for summer after January too. But Hawaii beats Oregon 10 months out of the year

 

 

I also thought I was the only on here who does not care about cold and snow after January.     I would be very happy if it never snowed after Groundhog Day. 

[wx_statman]

Almost certainly will reach the 20s tomorrow AM, assuming the rapid clearing to the north continues. With the fresh snow cover, could really surprise.

 

Arlington down to 22.

 

I'd like to see those dewpoints in the 20's for that. We did score a 23 back on 12/26 in a similar situation but the lower levels were slightly drier. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we could stay in Hawaii for another month and probably still come home to multiple chances for snow.

[wxmet]

As snowmizer has pointed out, there are plenty of times Seattle area has scored with a system moving in from the NW. This last one was just a little too far offshore, and this next one looks to just be a little too weak as it passes by.

 

And as SW has pointed out, some of it has to do with the trough digging so deep that lows are developing better further south as they dive down the coast.

 

I'm aware of what others have pointed out. To my point, getting a system that comes from the northwest to produce a snow event requires specific longwave trough configurations to avoid rain shadowing and too much warm air advection which is difficult to pull off. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 35.  Looks like the band is wrapping up.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I also thought I was the only on here who does not care about cold and snow after January.     I would be very happy if it never snowed after Groundhog Day. 

I would be even happier if the sun only came out in August and never got above 75.

[Front Ranger]

I'd like to see those dewpoints in the 20's for that. We did score a 23 back on 12/26 in a similar situation but the lower levels were slightly drier. 

 

I think they'll get there. It's only 10:30...Chehalis is down to 28. You guys just need a little clearing. Shouldn't take too long.

[Front Ranger]

I'm aware of what others have pointed out. To my point, getting a system that comes from the northwest to produce a snow event requires specific longwave trough configurations to avoid rain shadowing and too much warm air advection which is difficult to pull off. 

 

Fair enough. I just wouldn't read too much into what just happened. 

 

And I would also point out that a system moving in from the SW requires specific configurations and tracks for Seattle to score, too. Can't be too far south, can't be too far north, can't be too warm, etc.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the reanalysis on the 500mb pattern that delivered the Arctic front I can see it why we didn't get much snow here.  A while back I did a composite of 500mb maps associated with Arctic fronts that delivered snow to Seattle and ones that didn't.  This one was squarely in the low snow camp.  Next time around I'm going to use that data to make my snow predictions with the Arctic front.

[TT-SEA]

I would be even happier if the sun only came out in August and never got above 75.

 

No sun ever for 11 months of the year?   

[Deweydog]

Wasn't November 85 a coast slider?

Yup. PDX had eleven feet over those couple weeks.

[wx_statman]

NWS misfired on their Salem forecast. This was tweeted 2 hours ago:

 

Salem: Heavy snow begins b/w 9 PM & 10 PM. Total snowfall amounts of 1-4".

 

SLE reported 35 and rain as of 10:28. 

[snow_wizard]

Wasn't November 85 a coast slider?

 

Nov 1985 was made up of multiple systems.  It was basically Jan 1950 in November.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yup. PDX had eleven feet over those couple weeks.

Fuckk

[Front Ranger]

NWS misfired on their Salem forecast. This was tweeted 2 hours ago:

 

Salem: Heavy snow begins b/w 9 PM & 10 PM. Total snowfall amounts of 1-4".

 

SLE reported 35 and rain as of 10:28. 

 

Weird. None of the latest models were indicating that, at least that I saw.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nov 1985 was made up of multiple systems.  It was basically Jan 1950 in November.

I guess it would of been the first big snow of that period that brought in the arctic air.

[Front Ranger]

No sun ever for 11 months of the year?   

 

Sounds like the foothills by North Bend.

[wx_statman]

Weird. None of the latest models were indicating that, at least that I saw.

 

I have a feeling they were going off a hunch. Making an educated guess that the models weren't picking up on the southward progression of the snow band. Didn't work out for them, obviously. 

[TT-SEA]

Still a hole over the Central Sound on the 00z Euro, even with the larger Friday system.

 

Just so incredibly frustrating.

 

 

Yeah... the weekend looks miserable on the ECMWF.    It flirts with lowland snow but the precip is constant so I assume its probably overstating accumulation and it ends up being just really gloomy and drizzly with occasional snowflakes mixing in.   

 

I keep thinking this pattern will evolve into one with large ULLs meandering around which would probably end up being a warmer scenario but I have only seen small hints of this so far in the models.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro kind of sucks late in the week.  A lot of rain.  Booo.

[BLI snowman]

I have a feeling they were going off a hunch. Making an educated guess that the models weren't picking up on the southward progression of the snow band. Didn't work out for them, obviously.

Euro from last night did very well. You'd think they'd have learned that you shouldn't bet against it.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like the foothills by North Bend.

 

We had almost 5 straight months of sun last year.   Even December was very sunny.     You must be confused.