February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Not sure if this was posted yet... but here is total snow from 12Z ECMWF for Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon:

 

Seeing another dusting down here would be fun.

[MossMan]

12z still has the snow there.

 

 

Not often you see a pocket of snow over the ocean south of the low.

 

Yeah it’s pretty rare to see that! Anyone have a large boat that I can borrow?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So sad that this happened so late in the winter. Ugh.

[Front Ranger]

 

We are going to go from no snow all winter, straight into a Blizzard warning. Blizzard warning's are pretty rare for Tahoe. We had one last year and then one back in 2008.

 

Crazy. I see that Reno has had about the same amount of snow as South Lake Tahoe this winter. I'm sure that will change after this storm.

[Front Ranger]

Nice to finally get some decent rainfall this morning.

 

Definitely been a dry month from Seattle south.

 

[Front Ranger]

I am at lake level so 6300'. My area does pretty well in these cold storms so I wouldn't be surprised to see 40" by the time it is over on Saturday.

 

You said you average around 150"/year? I'm about 850' lower elevation than you, roughly the same latitude, and average about 70"/year. Winters are too dry here! 

[Geos]

Created a March thread already

[MossMan]

So sad that this happened so late in the winter. Ugh.

Imagine this setup around the beginning of January...

[Jesse]

Definitely been a dry month from Seattle south.

 

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Yeah, basically every front down here has been pretty showery in nature until today's.

 

Hopefully a good sign heading into March.

[AlTahoe]

You said you average around 150"/year? I'm about 850' lower elevation than you, roughly the same latitude, and average about 70"/year. Winters are too dry here! 

Tahoe city averages 190" a year on the North shore. We average about 150" on the south end of the lake. We have huge variability between years though. Our lowest (2014 - 2015) only brought 12"

whereas our biggest years like 1952, 1969 can bring over 500" to lake level. I think the record is 532" in 1952.  In 2010 - 2011 I recorded 388" at my house.

[stuffradio]

Created a March thread already

I started one already before you one or two days ago.

[Jesse]

Fortunately the 12z Euro seems to be doing away with any sort of warm up.

 

The mountains are set to do very well the first 7-10 days of March.

[Front Ranger]

Tahoe city averages 190" a year on the North shore. We average about 150" on the south end of the lake. We have huge variability between years though. Our lowest (2014 - 2015) only brought 12"

whereas our biggest years like 1952, 1969 can bring over 500" to lake level. I think the record is 532" in 1952. In 2010 - 2011 I recorded 388" at my house.

Wow. Snowiest I've ever recorded here is 130". Least is 38".

[Geos]

I started one already before you one or two days ago.

 

Ok. I'll just delete the one and move the post over

[stuffradio]

Ok. I'll just delete the one and move the post over

I merged them.

[MossMan]

Created a March thread already

Crazy how fast time is going...seemed like yesterday we were looking out on the clown range of the GFS towards MLK Day with very high hopes!

[bainbridgekid]

Seattle NWS take on the Friday morning potential:

 

Heights will steadily fall at 500 mb as an upper low drifts
southeastward out of the Pacific. Rain showers will continue and
snow levels will drop to between 1,000-2,000 ft by Thursday as
colder air aloft moves in. The weather may get more interesting by
Friday morning around 12z as the column cools even further. A
band of precip moving in may take advantage of wet bulbing effects
to allow some snow to mix in with the rain 12-15Z Friday morning.
Snow levels look to fall down to around 500 ft. Temps will be
marginal which would favor limited accumulation. Then the models
feature warming in the low levels after 15Z, so it would be a very
narrow window that would limit impacts, but given the rush hour
commute time frame, will monitor this closely today. The upper
low will weaken and drift inland and the heights rise by Saturday
so a warming and slow drying trend is expected over the weekend,
as rain turns more showery and diminishes in coverage.

[Geos]

Seattle NWS take on the Friday morning potential:

 

Heights will steadily fall at 500 mb as an upper low drifts

southeastward out of the Pacific. Rain showers will continue and

snow levels will drop to between 1,000-2,000 ft by Thursday as

colder air aloft moves in. The weather may get more interesting by

Friday morning around 12z as the column cools even further. A

band of precip moving in may take advantage of wet bulbing effects

to allow some snow to mix in with the rain 12-15Z Friday morning.

Snow levels look to fall down to around 500 ft. Temps will be

marginal which would favor limited accumulation. Then the models

feature warming in the low levels after 15Z, so it would be a very

narrow window that would limit impacts, but given the rush hour

commute time frame, will monitor this closely today. The upper

low will weaken and drift inland and the heights rise by Saturday

so a warming and slow drying trend is expected over the weekend,

as rain turns more showery and diminishes in coverage.

 

Glad they're sounding optimistic. 

[ShawniganLake]

[Esquimalt]

4EF5EA60-419B-4B04-BBC0-B44009070085.png

Wow looks like some significant snows up through Langford, Metchosin and Shawinigan Lake.  A couple of degrees cooler and probably widespread accumulations.  

[ShawniganLake]

Wow looks like some significant snows up through Langford, Metchosin and Shawinigan Lake. A couple of degrees cooler and probably widespread accumulations.

Most of that is shown falling tomorrow morning as it’s picking up some convective activity around Victoria early tomorrow. It’s probably all or nothing with a high bust potential.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the best 3km NAM yet for south Puget Sound.

[Esquimalt]

Most of that is shown falling tomorrow morning as it’s picking up some convective activity around Victoria early tomorrow. It’s probably all or nothing with a high bust potential.

The NAM has scored well lately.  Any thoughts?  

[Perturbed Member]

I'm sure this is overdone but it looks nice. 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018022818/048/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[ShawniganLake]

The NAM has scored well lately. Any thoughts?

Who knows. Those small convective cells are hard to forecast with much accuracy. Maybe, maybe not

[jakeinthevalley]

NWS PDX uses the term "flash freeze" to describe the possibility of icy roads Friday morning.

 

Do they even know what that means on this forum?

[MossMan]

NWS PDX uses the term "flash freeze" to describe the possibility of icy roads Friday morning.

 

Do they even know what that means on this forum?

Jim took over the NWS PDX!! No wonder we haven’t seen him here the last few days!

[MossMan]

Hour 252 is looking good on the 18z!

[TT-SEA]

NWS PDX uses the term "flash freeze" to describe the possibility of icy roads Friday morning.

 

Do they even know what that means on this forum?

Very appropriate.

 

12Z ECMWF shows upper 30s at PDX by 10 a.m. on Friday and almost 50 there by Friday afternoon. Sounds like a deep freeze.

[Front Ranger]

Jim took over the NWS PDX!! No wonder we haven’t seen him here the last few days!

 

Portland NWS is basically the Jim of NWS offices.

[snow_wizard]

Portland NWS is basically the Jim of NWS offices.

 

Good one!

[Jesse]

Looks like some pretty heavy rainfall about to move into the Portland metro. Nice dynamic front to close out the month.

 

44/39 here today.

[MossMan]

[Jesse]

You mean to open up the month.

 

Sure.