February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

[NEJeremy]

2” at my house. NWS had it right even after HRRR was showing 4-5” this morning.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not sure what Nebraska posters are talking about here, once it started snowing here in Omaha it came down fast and furious with the entire ground covered in 10 minutes. It had no problem accumulating. 

[Minny_Weather]

2” at my house. NWS had it right even after HRRR was showing 4-5” this morning.

Yeah I figured Kuchera ratios would be way overblown. It was fairly wet snow up until that weenie band that passed thru here. Upper air was near the freezing mark for a while. Dare I say it was below 10:1?

[Minny_Weather]

Not sure what Nebraska posters are talking about here, once it started snowing here in Omaha it came down fast and furious with the entire ground covered in 10 minutes. It had no problem accumulating. 

It was 1" here to 3" in some parts of Omaha. It wasn't accumulating THAT easily. It came down steadily with a brief break for about 4 hours and we got just under an inch at my place.

[Minny_Weather]

Models are backing off tomorrow. I think we'll be lucky to see over an inch here. GFS still showing >2".

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Models are backing off tomorrow. I think we'll be lucky to see over an inch here. GFS still showing >2".

It will probably over achieve again.

[Minny_Weather]

It will probably over achieve again.

Here's to hoping that it does. I feel like we've pushed our luck with the past couple of days. I certainly hope it overachieves, I'd love to keep temps down on Thursday. Temps in the DGZ look to be about -8*C during the peak. I also don't see dry air being an issue, so we should see some fat flakes.

[BLIZZARD09]

Chitown bust today? Peeps in Naperville saying they only have about 2-2.5” down and things wrapping up quickly.

Sure was!--What a winter it has been---where is Tom ? where are the Chicago guys?

[Minny_Weather]

We should be able to limp our way to double digits for the season tomorrow.

No kidding. We're BSing our way to a February that isn't half bad.

[Tom]

Sure was!--What a winter it has been---where is Tom ? where are the Chicago guys?

I'm here buddy.  Yesterday, was a crazy busy day and I got home late.  My parents are in town so I was with them and enjoying the snowfall.  ORD picked up 2.2" officially.  Southern burbs got hit again and the general 3-5" pretty much was spot on to LOT's updated snowfall forecast.  We were forecast to be in the 2-4" range anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

Downstate and W IL got crushed with up to 9" or so...

 

 

 

[jaster220]

GRR's bumping of expected totals yesterday, even while radar/Obs were taking the heaviest on a ESE trajectory made little sense, and sure enough my 1.1" actual total was way less than they called for. Even towards the lakeshore here in St. Joseph it's only a 2-3" deal. Nice to have snow-on-snow tho. There were some bad Semi slide-offs on the x-way in Van Buren cnty on a stretch that hadn't got quite enough salt/sand mixture. Recovery crews hadn't reached either truck yet. So glad I wasn't stuck in a parking lot while they worked to pull those beasts out. One was really jack-knifed in there good

[Tom]

GRR's bumping of expected totals yesterday, even while radar/Obs were taking the heaviest on a ESE trajectory made little sense, and sure enough my 1.1" actual total was way less than they called for. Even towards the lakeshore here in St. Joseph it's only a 2-3" deal. Nice to have snow-on-snow tho. There were some bad Semi slide-offs on the x-way in Van Buren cnty on a stretch that hadn't got quite enough salt/sand mixture. Recovery crews hadn't reached either truck yet. So glad I wasn't stuck in a parking lot while they worked to pull those beasts out. One was really jack-knifed in there good

This, is what I've been waiting for all season long, and the first full week of February looks to deliver the goods.  Giddy up pardner!

[Niko]

Picked up a refreshing 1.8" from this quick hitter. Not bad. Man, this thing was in and out.

[Stacsh]

Picked up a refreshing 1.8" from this quick hitter. Not bad. Man, this thing was in and out.

 

Received just under 3" here with a touch of lake enhancement.  

[BrianJK]

Exactly what went through my mind and I've come to a mixed consensus...  I believe it will snow, I do not believe the totals.  I'm going with 2" for our area. 

 

 

Still sticking with 2 here. Let’s see what happens.

 

 

I'm here buddy.  Yesterday, was a crazy busy day and I got home late.  My parents are in town so I was with them and enjoying the snowfall.  ORD picked up 2.2" officially.  Southern burbs got hit again and the general 3-5" pretty much was spot on to LOT's updated snowfall forecast.  We were forecast to be in the 2-4" range anyway.

 

 

Actually thought I may bust high when I saw the pathetic rates yesterday

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

I received 2" from this wave. Just enough to cover up all the areas that have melted away from the blizzard last month. 

[Niko]

Received just under 3" here with a touch of lake enhancement.  

That enhancement from the lake always seems to help. Keep those shovels/snowblower in handy...more still to come.

[Tom]

Just finished shoveling my driveway/walkway from the extremely fluffy tail end of the system snow that fell after 8:00pm.  Picked up an additional 0.6" since then bringing my total to about the number given at ORD.  I forgot to measure but seems to be an accurately portrayal for the area.  My snow depth is right at 3.0" on my deck.  Crazy how much the fluff settles since we have had about 4.1" over the past couple systems.

[Tabitha]

The ARW 2 hits this are very hard with some intense snow starting...well; in less than an hour...with 0.3 LE +

 

We'll see.

 

I measured 1/10th of an inch of snow.

 

Two miles to my north; three inches fell.  Two miles / 10,000 feet.  The band sat to my north for two hours without moving an inch.  Then; the moment it moved south; it feel apart.

 

Spearfish only saw 11 inches in a few hours.  Snow fans there lead a hard life.

 

Then, Monday evening, another 1/10th of an inch of snow fell.  That brought the seasonal total to 17.2".

 

After the 10 millionth consecutive disappointment; I took some time off.

 

The Thursday / Friday event will find a way to circumvent this area; as it always does.  The ICON, Euro, GFS show this. 

 

The NAM after 48 & CMC (lolz) look good.

 

Good model outcomes verify 5% of the time.  Bad model outcomes verify 110% of the time. 

 

The Rule of Thumb for forecasting snow here is called the 20% Rule. 

 

Whatever the worst model outcome shows; multiply that low total by one-fifth; and that should be your snowfall.

 

You can't fight climatology; or unfavorable trends/ patterns.  They are more difficult to break than the most profound curses.

 

It will not change here; and it never will.

 

Peace Out.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I measured 1/10th of an inch of snow.

 

Two miles to my north; three inches fell.  Two miles / 10,000 feet.  The band sat to my north for two hours without moving an inch.  Then; the moment it moved south; it feel apart.

 

Spearfish only saw 11 inches in a few hours.  Snow fans there lead a hard life.

 

Then, Monday evening, another 1/10th of an inch of snow fell.  That brought the seasonal total to 17.2".

 

After the 10 millionth consecutive disappointment; I took some time off.

 

The Thursday / Friday event will find a way to circumvent this area; as it always does.  The ICON, Euro, GFS show this. 

 

The NAM after 48 & CMC (lolz) look good.

 

Good model outcomes verify 5% of the time.  Bad model outcomes verify 100% of the time. 

 

You can't fight climatology; or unfavorable trends/ patterns.  They are more difficult to break than the most profound curses.

 

It will not change here; and it never will.

 

Peace Out.

[Tabitha]

Since you are in such hurry to see Me go; I think I will stay.  I'm sure the rest of the board will thank you for that.

 

Soo close were they to being rid of Tabitha; until your intercession!

 

Though I was never in the Girl Scouts; I knew someone who was. 

 

It took several months for her to be de-programmed. 

 

Despite the unbelievable misfortune here, I am still ahead of dear old Eppley.

 

And it is this that gives Me the courage to fight on.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Since you are in such hurry to see Me go; I think I will stay.  I'm sure the rest of the board will thank you for that.

 

Though I was never in the Girl Scouts; I knew someone who was. 

 

It took several months for her to be de-programmed. 

 

Despite the unbelievable misfortune here, I am still ahead of dear old Eppley.

 

And it is this that gives Me the courage to fight on.

wow lol

[Tabitha]

Since you are in such hurry to see Me go; I think I will stay. 

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2YRMixW9u8

[Tabitha]

If I thought the drought was bad here; check out these numbers:

 

Jamestown, ND: 0.13" precip since Dec 1, 2017; 0.01" since Jan 1, 2018 (that's 1/100 of an inch)

 

Minot, ND: 0.12" precip since Dec 1; 2017

 

Hetinger, ND: 0.09" precip since Dec 1, 2017

 

Aberdeen, SD: 0.08" precip since Jan 1, 2018...6.0" of snow for the season

 

Pierre, SD: 5.0" of snow for the season

[jaster220]

If I thought the drought was bad here; check out these numbers:

 

Jamestown, ND: 0.13" precip since Dec 1, 2017; 0.01" since Jan 1, 2018 (that's 1/100 of an inch)

 

Minot, ND: 0.12" precip since Dec 1; 2017

 

Hetinger, ND: 0.09" precip since Dec 1, 2017

 

Aberdeen, SD: 0.08" precip since Jan 1, 2018...6.0" of snow for the season

 

Pierre, SD: 5.0" of snow for the season

 

They got all the action last season, which for that storm proof region was like 5 yrs worth, lol. Prolly have to go back to 96-97 to find another banner year for the Dakotas like what they got with all those blizzards last season.

[Tabitha]

They got all the action last season, which for that storm proof region was like 5 yrs worth, lol. Prolly have to go back to 96-97 to find another banner year for the Dakotas like what they got with all those blizzards last season.

 

The bad totals for Pierre & Watertown do not appear to be accidents but climatological realities; as both show an average annual snowfall of 31.3" (1981-2010); so a very low snow year should not be considered out of the ordinary.

 

Since I just moved here; I am still learning the climate of the area as I go.