February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Tabitha]

I guess we gotta lower our standards again lol. If we end up with 4 to 6 ill be happy. Anything to be over last years total.

 

You keep missing the point; when a storm goes from 20 inches to 15 inches to 10 inches to 5 inches with 48 hours to go; like a free falling object; there is no leveling off; the decline will continue until what is left of it arrives.

 

For example, Chicago....they are 12 hours behind the Great Plains for storm arrival; so the models have not picked up the diminution there yet.

 

It will snow more in Chicago than Nebraska; but I doubt O'Hare measures more than half a foot total / 6 inches before it all dries out.

 

A good snowstorm for the Windy City; but nothing historic or epic.

[Madtown]

[Madtown]

and Milwaukee hoists a Wsw

[Tabitha]

Again you cannot get a major snowstorm ANYWHERE unless their is a major convulsion / perturbation in the atmosphere all the way up to 500 mb.

 

This means a negatively tilted trough; and a huge surge northward of (usually Gulf) moisture.

 

While the flow is not completely flat; it is a long way from the deep trough associated with big snow events.

 

You would be seeing thunderstorms over Kentucky and Tennessee (forecast to develop) if the proper ingredients were in place; with temps in the 60's there.

[Sciascia]

Here's LOT's current thinking thru 6pm Friday.

 

[Tom]

Again you cannot get a major snowstorm ANYWHERE unless their is a major convulsion / perturbation in the atmosphere all the way up to 500 mb.

 

This means a negatively tilted trough; and a huge surge northward of (usually Gulf) moisture.

 

You would be seeing thunderstorms over Kentucky and Tennessee if the proper ingredients were in place; with temps in the 60's there.

Not true.  Dec 31st - Jan 2nd 2014 is a pretty good analog for this storm where ORD managed to score on a major multi-day snowstorm (17") and that system did not have any of the above you mention. This is a pretty similar situation we are about to experience but maybe not to the extent of that year's storm.

[Tabitha]

Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models

 

27709387_10156001839736760_1532393932243962529_o.jpg

 

Whoever drew that map should be decommissioned...

[Tom]

12z EPS/Control....

 

 

[Tabitha]

Not true.  Dec 31st - Jan 2nd 2014 is a pretty good analog for this storm where ORD managed to score on a major multi-day snowstorm (17") and that system did not have any of the above you mention. This is a pretty similar situation we are about to experience but maybe not to the extent of that year's storm.

 

I will not debate with you the fact that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

 

However, as in politics, when you get into weather, you play the odds.

 

Could Chicago score a great snow with this coming storm?  Absolutely.

 

But likewise; the chances the other way...predicated on climatology & specifics of this event lean towards my take on the matter more than the one reflected by the US Global Forecast Model (GFS).

[Madtown]

doesn't match up with mke all that well..lol

[gosaints]

Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models

 

27709387_10156001839736760_1532393932243962529_o.jpg

What the world is this??? A snow weenies dream?  Why even put that out to the public.

[FV-Mike]

Whoever drew that map should be decommissioned...

Here is the median average if it helps you. 

 

[gosaints]

Here is the median average if it helps you. 

 

2918.png

Ahh no I get it.  We were posting something from the 98th percentile?

[FV-Mike]

Ahh no I get it.  We were posting something from the 98th percentile?

Agree it can be misleading, especially to the general public. 

[Tony]

I will not debate with you the fact that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

 

However, as in politics, when you get into weather, you play the odds.

 

Could Chicago score a great snow with this coming storm?  Absolutely.

 

But likewise; the chances the other way...predicated on climatology & specifics of this event lean towards my take on the matter more than the one reflected by the US Global Forecast Model (GFS).

You just mentioned Chicago would be lucky to get 6in out of this and now you are saying they can score BIG. It's either they will or they won't. Plus, plus most modeling has over 1" liquid qpf unless you take in the drier Euro run. Can they be wrong, sure can but the consistency has been there from run to run. I guess you can argue that the METS at LOT should not have issued a watch based on your assumptions but then you can argue that they have done their due diligence with the information at hand. I guess in the end we will see what transpires. Good luck to all of us cause I guess we are going to need it!

[Tony]

Not sure this was posted but here is the 12z gem

[hlcater]

Again you cannot get a major snowstorm ANYWHERE unless their is a major convulsion / perturbation in the atmosphere all the way up to 500 mb.

 

This means a negatively tilted trough; and a huge surge northward of (usually Gulf) moisture.

 

While the flow is not completely flat; it is a long way from the deep trough associated with big snow events.

 

You would be seeing thunderstorms over Kentucky and Tennessee (forecast to develop) if the proper ingredients were in place; with temps in the 60's there.

This is a different type of snow system mostly fueled from lift along an east west baroclinic zone as weak waves travel along it. In this particular case, I don't think a big negatively tilted trough is necessary, especially in areas that score from both events. This area is most likely to set up somewhere in IL.

[Tabitha]

You just mentioned Chicago would be lucky to get 6in out of this and now you are saying they can score BIG. It's either they will or they won't. Plus, plus most modeling has over 1" liquid qpf unless you take in the drier Euro run. Can they be wrong, sure can but the consistency has been there from run to run. I guess you can argue that the METS at LOT should not have issued a watch based on your assumptions but then you can argue that they have done their due diligence with the information at hand. I guess in the end we will see what transpires. Good luck to all of us cause I guess we are going to need it!

 

I wrote that anything is possible. 

 

That is not having it both ways; that is admitting that I could be wrong; as I have been wrong plenty of times in the past.

 

My prediction is not a certainty; it is an Educated Guess based on what little I know.

[Tabitha]

I will not debate with you the fact that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

 

However, as in politics, when you get into weather, you play the odds.

 

Could Chicago score a great snow with this coming storm?  Absolutely.

 

But likewise; the chances the other way...predicated on climatology & specifics of this event lean towards my take on the matter more than the one reflected by the US Global Forecast Model (GFS).

 

After 15 major GFS blizzards since November 2017 (about one a week); here is the total annual 2017-18 snowfall at 4 selected Midwest Cities: 

 

Rapid City: 14.4"

Chicago O'Hare: 14.3"

Lincoln: 11.8"

Omaha: 10.0"

 

So that is less than one inch per GFS blizzard.

The proof is in the pudding.

I rest my case.

[gosaints]

You just mentioned Chicago would be lucky to get 6in out of this and now you are saying they can score BIG. It's either they will or they won't. Plus, plus most modeling has over 1" liquid qpf unless you take in the drier Euro run. Can they be wrong, sure can but the consistency has been there from run to run. I guess you can argue that the METS at LOT should not have issued a watch based on your assumptions but then you can argue that they have done their due diligence with the information at hand. I guess in the end we will see what transpires. Good luck to all of us cause I guess we are going to need it!

Its a fickle set-up in order to score bug you probably need both waves to hit.  A watch is a watch makes sense they issued it for he 1st wave.  Who knows if it will be needed.

[Tabitha]

Its a fickle set-up in order to score bug you probably need both waves to hit.  A watch is a watch makes sense they issued it for he 1st wave.  Who knows if it will be needed.

 

There is no doubt it is going to snow across most of the Midwest.

 

I am simply trying to persuade people to understand that the GFS prints out what is colloquially known as a "clown map"  (and the Canadian likewise)...that is a long leap from reality.

[gosaints]

There is no doubt it is going to snow across most of the Midwest.

 

I am simply trying to persuade people to understand that the GFS prints out what is colloquially known as a "clown map"  (and the Canadian likewise)...that is a long leap from reality.

I get it.  The persuasion probably wont work.  

 

Any how the NAM will probably continue to fuel this discussion

[Madtown]

if my mind doesn't fail me....it seems as though the lighter of trend has been a theme this winter.

[hlcater]

DVN issues WSWs for 4-8" accumulations mainly along and north of 30 and east of the ms river

[Tony]

I wrote that anything is possible. 

 

That is not having it both ways; that is admitting that I could be wrong; as I have been wrong plenty of times in the past.

 

My prediction is not a certainty; it is an Educated Guess based on what little I know.

I guess we can all agree that the models have been terrible and will continue to be.

[Sciascia]

NAM going big here.

[Tabitha]

This is a different type of snow system mostly fueled from lift along an east west baroclinic zone as weak waves travel along it. In this particular case, I don't think a big negatively tilted trough is necessary, especially in areas that score from both events. This area is most likely to set up somewhere in IL.

 

The point you make about waves riding along the baroclinic zone is absolutely correct.

 

However, when one relies on such a set-up for a snowstorm; one needs to remember that the swath of very heavy snow IS NARROW; and the margin of error is VERY SMALL.

 

Thus even a small shift in the upper level flow can easily take the favored area out of the forecast heavy snow zone; something less likely than with a well developed mid-latitude cyclone; laden with Gulf Moisture.

[jaster220]

I will not debate with you the fact that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

 

However, as in politics, when you get into weather, you play the odds.

 

Could Chicago score a great snow with this coming storm?  Absolutely.

 

But likewise; the chances the other way...predicated on climatology & specifics of this event lean towards my take on the matter more than the one reflected by the US Global Forecast Model (GFS).

 

 

After 15 major GFS blizzards since November 2017 (about one a week); here is the total annual 2017-18 snowfall at 4 selected Midwest Cities: 

 

Rapid City: 14.4"

Chicago O'Hare: 14.3"

Lincoln: 11.8"

Omaha: 10.0"

 

So that is less than one inch per GFS blizzard.

The proof is in the pudding.

I rest my case.

 

You should just come out and say it. You're jealous as h*ll looking at where Chicago sits 

[Sciascia]

18z NAM, I know. But just for the sake of maps...

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/2z3qwz6.gif

 

LOT also updated their snow map through 6pm Friday. Thinking 8-12 for Chicago & most of N IL.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Huge differences for Nebraska between 12Z GFS (good for us) and 18Z NAM (crapola).  

[Tabitha]

You should just come out and say it. You're jealous as h*ll looking at where Chicago sits 

 

I'm so jealous that if it jogs north another 15 miles The Windy City will be looking at a coating...

[gosaints]

I'm so jealous that if it jogs north another 15 miles The Windy City will be looking at a coating...

Oh how the next 24 hours shall be exciting in this thread

[Tabitha]

You should just come out and say it. You're jealous as h*ll looking at where Chicago sits 

 

I'll bet you a penny that by Monday night; when all is said and done; the Rapid City NWS office measures more snow than Chicago O'Hare  from now until then.

 

So you won't have to take my ruler's word for it.

 

Rapid City NWS WFO might be the only station around here that does worse than me.

 

I'm ahead of them by 2.8" on the season...17.2" to 14.4".

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow 18 nam looks horrendous. Omaha is between a band to the north snd one to the south. What the hell?!?!

[gosaints]

Wave gets decent sampling tonight better tomorrow morning

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Id be extremely nervous if i lived in chi town. Thats a sharp cut off from huge amounts to nothing. Lol

[Tabitha]

Oh how the next 24 hours shall be exciting in this thread

 

I know! 

 

I'm having fun!

 

When you have had as terrible a snow season as I have had; the only direction you can go is up.

 

The so called "nothing to lose" take on things...

 

There is that "Law of Averages" you know...

 

You can't fight climatology...

 

[Madtown]

oh well been riding the nam for a day now...come on little pony...lol

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nam giveth and taketh away madtown

[gosaints]

Id be extremely nervous if i lived in chi town. Thats a sharp cut off from huge amounts to nothing. Lol

But you would rather be in chicago than in Omaha