Minny_Weather Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Driving to downtown tomorrow should be fun. This is a great time to have 3 tests in 2 days. Just enough ice to make roads bad, but not enough to make this a high publicity event, so there will be an increased number of people driving like morons on icy roads. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Looks like our ptype Tuesday morning should be sleet. I'd be happier with that than ZR. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Gfs says what freezing rain? Temps are a few degrees warmer which makes all the difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Although the second wave is much colder and destroys Milwaukee (1+ inch fzr) What a tough forecast. Degree or two difference is all it takes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 12z gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2018021812&fh=60&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I’m glad I look to be on the warm side of this and all rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 12z Canadian has .89” ice for Iowa City. I should probably fire up the generator today just to make sure it’s humming. Just in case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 This is the first time I've ever been happy to be in a dry slot.we need rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 There are big differences between the GFS and Euro with regard to qpf. The euro has consistently shown about 2" precip here, while the 12z GFS is down to Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Freezing drizzle is the lamest way to be under an advisory. Would rather get a sub-advisory snowfall to whiten things up a bit. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I'm rooting for us to break 60 today. Maybe it'll warm the ground up a bit so the roads take longer to freeze over tomorrow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Some light snow falling here just after 11 AM MDT with a temperature of 29 F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 There are big differences between the GFS and Euro with regard to qpf. The euro has consistently shown about 2" precip here, while the 12z GFS is down to How’s the euro look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Euro still showing about 2” qpf for Cedar Rapids but only very small amount would be ice (if any). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Ice storm warning issued for here http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ051&warncounty=WIC039&firewxzone=WIZ051&local_place1=4%20Miles%20NW%20Oakfield%20WI&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=43.737&lon=-88.5992#.WonLyXBMGEc Interesting considering the 12z runs barely had anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 How is Euro looking for ice across N IA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Very colorful... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Ice storm warning issued for here http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ051&warncounty=WIC039&firewxzone=WIZ051&local_place1=4%20Miles%20NW%20Oakfield%20WI&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=43.737&lon=-88.5992#.WonLyXBMGEc Interesting considering the 12z runs barely had anythingMaybe their thinking the warm front will have a hard time making its way north up your way. Might even stay South of Chicago with a NE wind off the lake but that's just a guess. Will need to keep an eye on the short term models for better placement of the front tomorriw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Maybe their thinking the warm front will have a hard time making its way north up your way. Might even stay South of Chicago with a NE wind off the lake but that's just a guess. Will need to keep an eye on the short term models for better placement of the front tomorriw.I guess another factor could be that ground temps are still pretty cold and even though surface temps might only be 33-35 it will still freeze on surface areas Tough forecast either way tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I guess another factor could be that ground temps are still pretty cold and even though surface temps might only be 33-35 it will still freeze on surface areas Tough forecast either way thoYep, better to be safe especially on a work day when there is more traffic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Some light snow falling here just after 11 AM MDT with a temperature of 29 F. Heavy snow, blowing snow and fog at 12:25 PM. Temperature has fallen back to 21 F. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I guess another factor could be that ground temps are still pretty cold and even though surface temps might only be 33-35 it will still freeze on surface areas Tough forecast either way thoThis. Even liquid falling into surface temps a few degrees above freezing is going to freeze on contact. Yep, better to be safe especially on a work day when there is more trafficTomorrow is a holiday so less people on the roads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I was looking at the 00z euro earlier by mistake. The 12z dropped qpf down to just over an inch for CR. Still looks like mostly rain here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I actually remember last year when the air temps were 36-38 there was ice eveywhere and cars were going in the ditch like crazy. That was after a really long cold stretch tho Not sure how surface temps are right now tho since it’s been decently warm last few weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Heavy snow, blowing snow and fog at 12:25 PM. Temperature has fallen back to 21 F. Moderate snow at 1:25 PM. Not so much blowing snow at the moment as the wind has slackened considerably. Temp 19 F. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 18z Nam crushes southern IA with ice Much colder and farther east with that 2nd wave Tuesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 MKE afd mentions the NE surface flow and they think temps will stay below freezing tomorrow north of MSN-MKE Also said the models don’t handle this type of set up well and likely be changes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 18z Nam crushes southern IA with ice Much colder and farther east with that 2nd wave Tuesdayyea that run is gross. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 My heart wants a ice storm, but my brain says no. At least it isn't looking very windy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 My heart wants a ice storm, but my brain says no. At least it isn't looking very windy.Yeah I’ve never been through an ice storm so don’t know really what to expect lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Yeah I’ve never been through an ice storm so don’t know really what to expect lolit's terrible. You don't want to experience one, trust me on that. E IA had a really bad one in like 2009, but hasnt had much in the way of FZR since. I'd very much like to keep it that way. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Moderate snow at 1:25 PM. Not so much blowing snow at the moment as the wind has slackened considerably. Temp 19 F. Moderate snow; blowing snow @ 2:25 PM...visibility about 1/4 mile (though it did seem to be falling in the last 10 minutes). Winds have picked up out of the NE again; gusting over 25 mph. Temp 15 F. Going out to move my refuse can in; it looked like there were some 5 inch drifts; though the amount of new snow probably considerably less. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Green Bay forecast area still going with a watch for now. Want to wait and let the midnight shift decide on advisory/warnings. Mentions the warmer guidance along with warmer road temps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 MPX removed the ice potential for the metro. Should stay cold enough here to remain all or mostly snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 it's terrible. You don't want to experience one, trust me on that. E IA had a really bad one in like 2009, but hasnt had much in the way of FZR since. I'd very much like to keep it that way.We lucked out in the big one we had last year. It ended up getting to 33° about halfway into the event, so it stayed liquid after that and we ended up with only 0.3" at UNL. Could have been way worse. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 DMX disco- Bottom Line Up Front...Forecast confidence only medium, medium-high for Tomorrow nightthrough Tuesday. If going forecast pans out, impacts could beserious across the central to SE portion of Iowa, including the DesMoines metro. Rest of the week quiet until next Friday or so. In all, Tuesday morningcommute around the Des Moines metro to Ames will really have to bewatched. There could be well over 0.1 inches of ice alreadyaccumulated before sunrise, making travel potentially very hazardous. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Moderate snow; blowing snow @ 2:25 PM...visibility about 1/4 mile (though it did seem to be falling in the last 10 minutes). Winds have picked up out of the NE again; gusting over 25 mph. Temp 15 F. Going out to move my refuse can in; it looked like there were some 5 inch drifts; though the amount of new snow probably considerably less. Was continuing to snow at 3:30 PM. I'd call it moderate to heavy snow with visibility around 1/4th of a mile. Temp 13 F. The SREF plumes at 15z were printing out a mean of about 18.6" down at the Rapid City Airport...with a high of 28.8"; so you know it is going to be a big storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Was continuing to snow at 3:30 PM. I'd call it moderate to heavy snow with visibility around 1/4th of a mile. Temp 13 F. The SREF plumes at 15z were printing out a mean of about 18.6" down at the Rapid City Airport...with a high of 28.8"; so you know it is going to be a big storm.Sounds like it's going to be fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 The biggest ice storm I have seen was the one that started on March 2nd 1976 http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/03/what_did_the_historic_1976_ice.htmlHere is some video from Saginawhttp://wfgr.com/the-great-ice-storm-of-1976-was-41-years-ago-this-week-video/ Still can remember the sound of trees cracking and falling from the ice. The breaking trees I remember from the New Years Eve '85 ice storm that was much worse in Flint and Genesee Cnty (Tri-cities got a nice snowstorm). The March '76 storm I remember for the amount of ice on the dead-end portion of my parent's street (3/4 - 1"?) as I had new hockey skates and was able to comfortably skate without risk to my blades and it was clear pure ice, no sleet or anything contaminating it. 60's til the 80's was really prime time for SMI historic winter events! Younger peeps think I'm exaggerating when I say that my youth years were legendary, but the facts back it up! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Was continuing to snow at 3:30 PM. I'd call it moderate to heavy snow with visibility around 1/4th of a mile. Temp 13 F. The SREF plumes at 15z were printing out a mean of about 18.6" down at the Rapid City Airport...with a high of 28.8"; so you know it is going to be a big storm. I would say there was about 3.4" new snow here as of 5:35 PM. Since it has been snowing for about 6 1/2 hours; the average rate is about 1/2 inch per hour. Temp is now down to 9 F and it is quite chilly at twilight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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