1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm

[GDR]

Please push more north

[bud2380]

It’s white flag time for those of us along I80 in eastern Iowa. When you’re only hope is the GFS, you have no hope. 

[jcwxguy]

12z nbm

[jcwxguy]

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Congrats to the NE members on reeling in a solid winter storm.  @CentralNebWeather @gabel23 @Bryan1117

0z EPS...locked in....Northwoods trails should be doing alright after this one...I personally think the GEFS will trend towards the EPS.  My gut was telling me not to get sucked into this one and that it had eyes north of the "Cheddar Curtain".  As much as I would love to see a solid snowstorm, I'm happy for you guys out west that are snow starved just like a lot of us south of I-80.

 

Speaking of I-80 and the corridor, I happened to read WGN's Blog this morning and the season's snowfall to date just shows how bad its been THUS far...

 

 

Nevertheless, this storm appears to dump some impressive snowfall totals... @james1976both your places are gonna cash in!  @hawkstwelvereels in another one!

 

 68" inches of snow (I've had 61") and we've probably had 10 days with snow otg this whole winter  Two events.   Weird winter.   

[bud2380]

A simple look at why the snow band has shifted so far north and eastern Iowa went from the cross hairs to rain/mix.

You can see the 850mb map here from Friday's 12z Euro, the lowest heights were centered around central MO.

 

 

Compared to last night's 00z run which is centered on the Iowa/Missouri border.  

 

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

NAM continues the inch north.  Some areas under a watch would get little to no snow on this run.  But it's the NAM.  

 

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says to watch the ensembles.   Doesn't think the track will move much more, might even come back south some.  We'll see.

[bud2380]

NAM showing some ice as well.

 

[Grizzcoat]

NAM and RDPS actually doing better in West C.IA compared to previous runs. It can't hurt. This will likely be classic riding the rain/ snow line and 20 miles NW gets pounded-- albeit not as much as further NW where the trowal will be more certain.

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

GFS holding it's own but this time spreads heavier totals into E.IA---

[Grizzcoat]

[bud2380]

I don't believe you GFS.  

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

GFS has virtually all the snow falling in Iowa City and Cedar Rapids in a 6 hour window.

It's either gonna be one of the highest snow rates I've ever witnessed or dead wrong...

 

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

The GDPS dropped the heavy burst over CR/IC, so the GFS is pretty much on its own.

[CentralNebWeather]

21 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Whoa, that is a great hit for Nebraska.  Come on GFS

[hlcater]

Not super confident on this one here right now. Think a rain/snow mix results in 1-2" of slush, if that. Need the system as a whole to track further SE for us. Especially with such a marginal airmass.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GEFS looks like it has come in slightly south, or maybe it is the just the amounts seem to have gone up this run.

[bud2380]

The Canadian really turns north with the rain/snow line in Eastern Iowa.  Much further north than the GFS.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GEFS.  Pretty impressive.

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS hotter for C.IA---  liking the trends thus far this AM (only to be shot down in 90 mins by the King) -

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

GEFS hotter for C.IA---  liking the trends thus far this AM (only to be shot down in 90 mins by the King) -

 

I like it too.  Of course it has me in the bullseye in Central Nebraska, so that adds to my liking. 

[Grizzcoat]

34 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

FWIW-- ICON was one - if not the first- to show the N trend about 36-42 hours ago. Seeing it come S now is a good sign imo.

[Grizzcoat]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I like it too.  Of course it has me in the bullseye in Central Nebraska, so that adds to my liking. 

When your in the bullseye with an ensemble at this range- you can brag all you want. Not saying it will happen, but good for you peeps out there.

[bud2380]

UK stays further north

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

WPC weather map for Wednesday.  Whoa.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

A simple look at why the snow band has shifted so far north and eastern Iowa went from the cross hairs to rain/mix.

You can see the 850mb map here from Friday's 12z Euro, the lowest heights were centered around central MO.

 

 

Compared to last night's 00z run which is centered on the Iowa/Missouri border.  

 

Those lows near Iowa/Mo border usually  bring me little  in the way of precip. I call them "drizzle storms". Its shocking  that a low pressure  can pass so close to my location  and basically  get no precip. Todays low for example  just .07 has fallen.  A joke and hype, remove the LLJ overnites in summer months and  the very occasional  stalling front along the Iowa/Mo border area and I really believe we would  get less than 15 inches of precip a year here!

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GEFS.  Pretty impressive.

Lock this one in PLEASE... starting to feel a little bit more confident that we might get closer to double digit seasonal snowfall after this system. Fingers crossed guys and gals! 

[Bryan1117]

59 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

When your in the bullseye with an ensemble at this range- you can brag all you want. Not saying it will happen, but good for you peeps out there.

We are so overdue here in Nebraska for this one... just hope we don't get the rug pulled from out under us again - it's happened a few times too many for our liking the last 2 years. 

[bud2380]

I do hope the Nebraska people get a good hit, it has been awhile.  I just wish this would track more West-East.  That just doesn't happen very often though.  Euro is about to start and will laugh in the face of the further south GFS.

[bud2380]

Here's the airmass this storm is running in to.  Even with a slightly further north track, if there was more cold air to work with, there would be more snow all around.  Just not in the cards though with this one.

 

[bud2380]

You can already tell at hour 45 that the Euro will be well north of the GFS.  The SLP forms further north in CO and the precip shield extends well further north into the Black Hills of SD, where the GFS doesn't get that far north at any point.

 

[GDR]

Wagons north!

[bud2380]

As the crow flies, GFS is about 150 miles further south/south west of the Euro at noon Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

[bud2380]

The Euro is a little deeper with the cold air further south this run, especially in Eastern Iowa, but the main band of precip moves through pretty fast and then we get dry slotted.  Shows a couple inches of snow here along with what I assume is sleet/freezing rain.  Looks like your standard winter slop fest.  I forsee a Winter Weather Advisory in my future for 1-2" of snow and a glaze of ice.  

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

The Euro and GFS are not terribly different in many aspects of the storm.  The main difference (and it's a big one) is simply SLP placement.  The GFS is way further south, so the entire snow/precip shield is also further south.  

[jcwxguy]

Sref is trending north

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

14 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Sref is trending north

I would say the amounts are higher this run.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z CMCE.  Looks good.  More than the previous run, maybe a tick southeast.

 

[The Snowman]

5" feels like a good starting point for Omaha. Anywhere from 3-12" in play, but NWS Omaha's range of 4-7" makes a lot of sense.

[hlcater]

40 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Sref is trending north

Has a northward bias at longer ranges. Not very useful.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z EPS