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1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm


Tom
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I feel pretty confident that a formidable storm is going to develop mid next week as it also fits the pattern we've been discussing for some time now.  Every single global model is now showing it and it appears almost likely that many of us on here around the I-80 corridor on south with see a pretty decent winter storm.  Let's discuss...

0z GEFS...

 

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0z EPS...

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0z GEPS...the farthest south among the models...

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I know who's rooting for the good Ol' Canadian!  Oh Canada... @Clinton @sumweatherdude KC peeps and I would say the Chicago area is riding the fine line with this one.  I'm not all in on this just yet for MBY...needless to say, this should be a fun storm to track.

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

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NWS Hastings morning disco:

Tuesday night - Wednesday night (Accumulating Snow Possible)... This remains the most interesting period to watch for a potentially more impactful storm system with the 00Z GFS, GEM, and ECMWF all trending northward with the next upper low increasing our chances for a more widespread accumulating snowfall event. All three of these deterministic model runs would result in an accumulating snowfall event for much of our forecast area

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Hello from Cozumel, Mexico - the wife and I are returning back to Omaha today and I was hoping to be able to ease back with some decent, not frigid weather which looks to be the case… Excited that we might get some actual snowfall (2+ inches) this upcoming week - unless our KC peeps somehow manage to reel this one in.

We got hit with a textbook “Norte” (cold front in Mexico) here yesterday with strong north winds that dropped the temps into the upper 60’s (gusting to 45-50 mph at times), heavy surf, and some light rain… otherwise it has been 82-85 and sunny all week long - Isla Cozumel is amazing!

Fingers crossed however my optimism remains low (can we turn things around with 2+ months to go?).

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I had promised myself I wouldn't look at the models today because I figured they'd trend away from KC getting any benefit from this.  Now I've punished myself by looking.  They're looking to very consistently give the prize to Iowa while we get rain.  Pretty standard stuff.  I shouldn't have looked.  Bummer.

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4 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Hello from Cozumel, Mexico - the wife and I are returning back to Omaha today and I was hoping to be able to ease back with some decent, not frigid weather which looks to be the case… Excited that we might get some actual snowfall this upcoming week - unless our KC peeps real this one in.

We got hit with a textbook “Norte” (cold front in Mexico) here yesterday with strong north winds that dropped the temps into the upper 60’s (gusting to 45-50 mph at times), heavy surf, and some light rain… otherwise it has been 82-85 and sunny all week long - Isla Cozumel is amazing!

Fingers crossed however my optimism remains low (can we turn things around with 2+ months to go?).

Awesome. We are taking a cruise out of Galveston in May, right after school is out. Stops at Mahogany Bay Honduras, Belize, and Cozumel. Been to Cozumel once before and loved it. 

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This run of the GFS is suspect because it suddenly added an upper low over the arrowhead of Minnesota, which may be suppressing the storm farther south.  This upper low was not there on previous runs and it's not there on other models.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z Euro is real weak because the upper energy is all strung out... very different from the well-consolidated energy on previous runs.

It eventually consolidates and closes off, but the delay leads to much lighter snow totals from Iowa southwestward.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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59 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GGEM...about as close as you can get to an I-80 special...

sn10_acc-imp.conus.png

Nowhere close to I80 here. You should be less generalized. Sure is anice sunny day here. This looks to screw mby like every storm, lol

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Been a pathetic  year in snow removal  business, 2 straight  years. Maybe it will turn around?

1757e991-198d-4aac-8481-9614765442f6_392711263807117(1).png

No turnaround here, lol

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OK, still a long ways to go, but I would love to see the models keep coming in stronger. Seems like for the past couple years as we get closer and closer to the event the models go the other way. Here’s to hoping we see a more widespread weather system for all!

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Too early to be confident in details, but definitely have some concerns about precip type issues around here.

There is more antecedent cold air for this compared to the storm that just passed (which is not saying much), so should at least be able to maintain a snow band all the way across the region.

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

Mid-week (Wednesday) storm system has the early potential to produce accumulating snowfall across most of the forecast area and possibly impact travel and local events.

Late Tuesday night, Wednesday and early Thursday timeframe for the possibility of a fairly significant winter storm across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The current area of most concern is roughly the between I-80 and I-70.

 

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Crikey!   60-70’s generally for next week.  Wednesday will bring a 40% chance of rain.  
Winter?!  Where art Thou?

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Too early to be confident in details, but definitely have some concerns about precip type issues around here.

There is more antecedent cold air for this compared to the storm that just passed (which is not saying much), so should at least be able to maintain a snow band all the way across the region.

Congrats Chicago and west. By the time it gets cold enough to target this place, winter will be DOA

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Oy.  The 0z GFS suddenly doesn't dig the upper trough much, instead shoots the energy east.  The result is a faster, weaker system.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Bullseye by the euro for areas along and east of highway 281; aka eastern half of Nebraska and only four days out. What could go wrong? I’ll give the models one thing, it seems they are coming in agreement with the track. Strength and moisture seems to be the play.

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