1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm

[Madtown]

hows this thing looking over this way?

[jcwxguy]

18z gfs coming in hot for lincoln and nebraska in general 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

18z NAM at 84 hours. 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:  

Next up is a stronger system that is expected to move through the central Plains late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Precip is expected to fall primarily as snow, but some rain and freezing rain is possible on the southeast side of the system. There are still some discrepancies on storm track between the global ensembles. The large majority of members have 6"+ of snow impacting at least parts of the area, but exact location is tougher to pin down. The 12Z CMC and EPS are in pretty good agreement regarding a swath of heavy snow stretching from southwest Nebraska up into northeast Nebraska, but the GEFS is sticking with a more southerly solution. I tend to favor the EPS/CMC solution, so the Winter Storm Watch was stretched all the way up through Valley/Greeley counties.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

Our superintendent just texted me to tell me that NWS Hastings is having a webinar tomorrow at 2:30 for school administrators about the storm. I would guess if things stay as they are, many schools and others will be closed Wednesday. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Accuweather forecast. 

[jcwxguy]

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

Well I guess it up to February to pull us out of this deficit.  Just curious how under average we are in the Detroit area. 

If you're in Milford, compare what you have vs either Brighton or Pontiac. There's a substantial difference from DET up to yby. I use DTW since I am closer to that major recording site. I am at 62% of avg for Nov and Dec. Can't count Jan yet because (against all odds) it could still rally late. Snow doesn't fall equally dispersed on a daily basis. Having said that I expect my deficits to grow. This will be another 11-12. Tree buds caught my attention today when I was out enjoying a brisk walk in the rare sun. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Northward ho!!!!

It’s really comical.

[jaster220]

Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

Northward ho!!!!

It’s really comical.

Even the models don't get the "seasonal trends" of locking-in the FSD->MSP parade route.

[Hawkeye]

At this rate, I'll end up with some rain and a few wet flakes.  Frankly, I'd rather get nothing than an inch of slop.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

29 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Northward ho!!!!

It’s really comical.

I hate to say it but me thinks you are right. 

[Clinton]

18z EPS

 

[The Snowman]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Northward ho!!!!

It’s really comical.

Trends maybe negative for >6", but still looking solid for a couple inches or more. Better than a dry slot, in my view.

[jcwxguy]

00Z NBM

[gabel23]

35 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

00Z NBM

Give me a tug South about 20 miles and I’m sitting in the 8+ band. Don’t get north of that river and everyone along I-80 is in good shape. Just stay the course tonight models..

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Northward ho!!!!

It’s really comical.

I am also thinking that we are in trouble with the recent ridiculous pattern… honestly let’s just cancel Winter here and accept our exceptional drought here locally, if we end up missing this one. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

GFS and Canadian trying to give me false hope. I’m not falling for it. Lol. 

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

GEFS well north of the operational model in eastern Iowa. Not a good sign. 

[jcwxguy]

[WinterSquall23]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

If you're in Milford, compare what you have vs either Brighton or Pontiac. There's a substantial difference from DET up to yby. I use DTW since I am closer to that major recording site. I am at 62% of avg for Nov and Dec. Can't count Jan yet because (against all odds) it could still rally late. Snow doesn't fall equally dispersed on a daily basis. Having said that I expect my deficits to grow. This will be another 11-12. Tree buds caught my attention today when I was out enjoying a brisk walk in the rare sun. 

Good to know! Thanks. 

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

0Z Euro with another step north.

Minneapolis and Sioux Falls now with more snow forecast than Omaha.

[Hawkeye]

Minneapolis getting another 6+?  LOL  They are just reeling in everything this winter.

[Grizzcoat]

06 GFS goes S for most of IA,, though i don't trust it, it will keep me sucked in for a few more model runs- sadly.

[Grizzcoat]

OAX with a good AFD this AM (wish DMX could par up)--

Wednesday - Thursday Morning:

Our attention turns next to the storm mid-week this week. Models
are finally coming into fairly good agreement on a general track
of the low through central or northwest Missouri. This, though,
continues a trend to shift the heavy snow axis slightly more north
each run. Feeling more confident enough, though, as the ensemble
members are becoming more clustered with the track, which "should"
keep significant shifts from occurring. We`re still trying to nail
down the location of the heaviest snow band, but we can more
confidently say there will be a wide swath of greater than 4
inches of snow, including much the area along and just north of
I-80.

One caveat: we`ll need to watch the warm-air advection closely as
it may lead to a changeover to freezing rain or sleet along the
freezing line, and all rain across SE Nebraska. This could
significantly cut into snow totals, leading to a steep gradient in
amounts and the potential for icy conditions for some. Our
National Blend of Models puts that just south of Omaha and
Lincoln, but if this shifts any farther north this could lead to a
drop in forecast amounts for these locations. Another concern I
have is the potential for a band of freezing rain right along or
just north of the freezing line Wednesday afternoon, which could
lead to icy conditions. Models suggest this could occur, but lack
in confidence in its location or duration at this time led me to
keeping it out of the forecast for now.

Temperatures will start to fall across SE Nebraska Wednesday
evening leading to an eventual changeover to snow. Snowfall
amounts will directly correlate to how early or late these areas
changeover to snow. Precipitation will start exiting SE Nebraska
after midnight, and should be out of the area by 6 AM Thursday
morning. This of course leans heavily on the current ensemble and
model solutions, which suggest this timing. These systems do have
a tendency to slow down as they approach, which could lead to a
later start and end time. This could lead to a slight increase in
snowfall amounts with the current track due to more time with
precipitation after sunset.

In general, I still don`t want to discuss in too much confidence
snowfall amounts due to the potential for additional adjustments
in the track and a fairly wide range in totals by different model
solutions. What I will say is that the National Blend of Models
shows a wide swath of greater than 60 percent chance of 4 inches
or more of snow, some areas greater than 70 percent chance. We`ll
hopefully get a better handle on exact amounts by tomorrow.

[Grizzcoat]

Not bad from DMX-- (Donovan is the best forecaster they got)-

The other forecast challenge arrives Wednesday through Thursday
morning as a closed upper low moves from southeast Colorado and into
southeast Iowa. The overall evolution of this system remains on
track with the initial low pressure moving into eastern Kansas with
another low developing to the east. The past few nights was
concerned that the eastern low development and associated convection
over the southeast CONUS would disrupt the moisture advection into
Iowa. The warm conveyor transport of moisture from the strong low
and mid-level northward moisture advection does appear strong enough
to arch the moisture transport back northwest and should have a
TROWAL feature develop as this occurs. The forcing with this system
does look stronger than what is associated with today`s system and
it actually looks more impressive as the event nears. Ample moisture
supply, a period of good dendritic growth with sufficient forcing
for a 12-18 hr period will likely lead to a swath of 4+ inches of
snow, especially along and north of the TROWAL axis which is roughly
north of Interstate 80. Southeast Iowa will have rain at times which
will limit amounts. There may be a period of aggregate crystal
growth as deep layer saturation in the -1C to -3C range occurs
before cold advection drops the temperatures outside this range.
That could lead to a period of higher snow rates and even a sticky
snow. Some blowing snow could occur with wind gusts in the 20 to 25
mph range as dendrites become more fluffy with the cooling.

No significant weather is expected Friday and into the weekend with
mostly dry conditions and highs in the 20s and 30s expected.


DISCUSSION...Donavon

[jcwxguy]

watches out for lincoln/omaha and northwest 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS ensembles seems to be getting locked in ( whatever that means) --- 00z and 06Z --

 

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

DMX first take -

[jcwxguy]

yikes on the nam

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

Congrats to the NE members on reeling in a solid winter storm.  @CentralNebWeather @gabel23 @Bryan1117

0z EPS...locked in....Northwoods trails should be doing alright after this one...I personally think the GEFS will trend towards the EPS.  My gut was telling me not to get sucked into this one and that it had eyes north of the "Cheddar Curtain".  As much as I would love to see a solid snowstorm, I'm happy for you guys out west that are snow starved just like a lot of us south of I-80.

 

Speaking of I-80 and the corridor, I happened to read WGN's Blog this morning and the season's snowfall to date just shows how bad its been THUS far...

 

 

Nevertheless, this storm appears to dump some impressive snowfall totals... @james1976both your places are gonna cash in!  @hawkstwelvereels in another one!