1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco: 

* Impactful snow storm possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday night, especially during the day on Wednesday. Forecast models continue to trend a bit further north resulting in possible impacts for much of our forecast area. If current model trends continue this could be the type of storm that results in cancellations and closures so please keep up to date with the latest forecast.

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night: Possible Snow Storm... This is really the forecast period to keep an eye on! The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean nudged the heavy snow band with this system further north with the heaviest snow band now centered generally along Highway 6 across south central and southeastern Nebraska. It`s also important to note that these recent model runs indicate potentially impactful snowfall accumulations all across our forecast area from north central Kansas up to Ord and Greeley.  The increasing number of ensemble members that indicate significantsnowfall for our area is concerning and if this trend holds through the next 12-24 hours then we will need to strongly consider issuing winter storm watches for portions of the forecast area. 

[Tom]

Yikes, big shift NW per the EPS but the GEFS are SE and still keep N IL in the game as well as the GEPS.  My original concern was, and has been, the good Ol' "Cheddar Curtain" snow storm on the latest 0z Euro.

0z EPS...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

0z Euro Control...no bueno for the lower lakes....

[Clinton]

6z Euro hot for @CentralNebWeather and @OmahaSnowFan.  The control will get the whole storm in about 30 min.

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control.  James might be trying to steal another one lol.

Edited January 15 by Clinton

[Hawkeye]

C'mon, man.  Is this thing really going to miss me nw?  The 06z ICON has heavy snow up to Minneapolis.  I may end up with an inch of slop out of this.   

[GDR]

She gone!!

[Stacsh]

Cut cut cut.  I’m loving this  snow no show January.  Let’s keep it going.   

[jcwxguy]

12z nbm

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

12z icon will be north, not good for lincoln/omaha. GEM might be north also

[Hawkeye]

19 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

12z icon will be north, not good for lincoln/omaha. GEM might be north also

Rats.... the RDPS (RGEM) is so far north I get rain and Sioux Falls get clobbered with snow.  

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

look at that cutoff near fremont ( 6.0)

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Cut cut cut.  I’m loving this  snow no show January.  Let’s keep it going.   

The sunshine is like March this morning . Ready for spring already. Which ofc will be trash when it gets here no doubt.

[bud2380]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

C'mon, man.  Is this thing really going to miss me nw?  The 06z ICON has heavy snow up to Minneapolis.  I may end up with an inch of slop out of this.   

That’s why I haven’t been getting my hopes up. It’s a broken record around here.  When models show heavy snow to our north they never shift south. When they show it to our south they never shift north. When it shows it right on top of us for days, it will shift.  

[jcwxguy]

[mlgamer]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

That would be great. 

[jcwxguy]

france model 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Talked to our school superintendent at church today, we serve as ushers together this month. He asked me my opinion of the storm. I said it looked promising for amounts and moisture. He said he talks with NWS Hastings before a weather event for their opinions. He said to be prepared for a snow day Wednesday if forecasts verify.  

[CentralNebWeather]

11 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

france model 

 

Looks good. Lots of moisture. Hopefully we’ll go into Spring in much better shape than last year. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

That’s why I haven’t been getting my hopes up. It’s a broken record around here.  When models show heavy snow to our north they never shift south. When they show it to our south they never shift north. When it shows it right on top of us for days, it will shift.  

Im just going to plan on being missed rather than get hopes up. This is possibly  going to be all time worst  12 months since I started  the business  here. Drought and no snow not a nice combo.   Ottumwa  had made out fairly  well on snow  despite  some bad winters like eeking out 32"  last season. This year nonstop bankruptcy  weather! Unreal.

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

The sunshine is like March this morning . Ready for spring already. Which ofc will be trash when it gets here no doubt.

Yep I’m sure spring will show up in June again

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

So the trend is not just nw, but also a stronger initial low in the plains, which then transfers energy to a developing low east of Iowa, so there is a break in between.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Pretty gross to see the models crap the bed and weaken as they head east

[CentralNebWeather]

[james1976]

6 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

My friend - I think that Eastern Nebraska and our local exceptional drought conditions are a bit more due for a decent event than IA/ Chicago… LOL!

No doubt about that. I think a lot of Nebraska is looking good with this one.

[Bryan1117]

23 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Pretty gross to see the models crap the bed and weaken as they head east

Not holding my breath here… we have seen this situation play out way too many times in the past. If our friends @hawkstwelve and @james1976 somehow end up reeling this one in, I am quitting Winter cold turkey haha! 
 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

definite north trend on models today and the ensembles

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

12z model runs look like Canadian is furthest north, Euro in the middle, GFS farthest south 

[jcwxguy]

18z nbm

[bud2380]

The EPS mean has jumped at least 200 miles north in the last 24 hours. If it doesn’t reverse course in the next 24 hours then I’ll feel safe in saying this is not our storm in east central Iowa. 

[The Snowman]

Feeling solid about a large swath of Nebraska getting 2"+ from this system. Primary concern in my eyes is how much the expected attendant severe weather event in the Deep South will be, as far as its ability to rob moisture from the cold side of the system. Yesterday's 12z Euro seemed to show this (tracked conveniently on WeatherBell via lightning activity maps) but the projected intensity of these storms has backed off since then... whether that directly correlates to the higher snow totals overnight and today, who knows.

 

NWS Hastings has hoisted Winter Storm Watches extending into east-central Nebraska, which I imagine puts some pressure on NWS Omaha to do something too.

 

Given how we aren't dealing with a huge surface high pushing southeast from Canada in the wake of this storm, I don't think the risk is there's a last-minute shift southeast. Instead, with a multi-day trend of guidance gradually de-amplifying the upper-level trough responsible for this storm but maintaining the strength of simultaneous East Coast ridging, I'm more nervous about the storm trekking north like some sporadic guidance has shown recently. Would much rather be in the Tekemah, NE area than Nebraska City, for example, but Omaha looks decent too.

[jcwxguy]

18z nam is south but it's 84hr nam so...

[WinterSquall23]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Went from a 30-40% chance of 3+ inches and a 0% chance of 6+ inches on the 00z EPS to 60-70% and 40-50% chance respectively on the 12z EPS.

Wow! 

[WinterSquall23]

Well I guess it up to February to pull us out of this deficit.  Just curious how under average we are in the Detroit area. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[jcwxguy]

18z rgem is even farther north than 12z run

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

8 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Reel it in Sioux Falls and Minneapolis!!