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1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm


Tom

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NWS Hastings morning disco: 

* Impactful snow storm possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday night, especially during the day on Wednesday. Forecast models continue to trend a bit further north resulting in possible impacts for much of our forecast area. If current model trends continue this could be the type of storm that results in cancellations and closures so please keep up to date with the latest forecast.

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night: Possible Snow Storm... This is really the forecast period to keep an eye on! The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean nudged the heavy snow band with this system further north with the heaviest snow band now centered generally along Highway 6 across south central and southeastern Nebraska. It`s also important to note that these recent model runs indicate potentially impactful snowfall accumulations all across our forecast area from north central Kansas up to Ord and Greeley.  The increasing number of ensemble members that indicate significantsnowfall for our area is concerning and if this trend holds through the next 12-24 hours then we will need to strongly consider issuing winter storm watches for portions of the forecast area. 

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Yikes, big shift NW per the EPS but the GEFS are SE and still keep N IL in the game as well as the GEPS.  My original concern was, and has been, the good Ol' "Cheddar Curtain" snow storm on the latest 0z Euro.

0z EPS...

image.png

 

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

 

 

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C'mon, man.  Is this thing really going to miss me nw?  The 06z ICON has heavy snow up to Minneapolis.  I may end up with an inch of slop out of this.  🤦‍♂️ 🤮

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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19 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

12z icon will be north, not good for lincoln/omaha. GEM might be north also

Rats.... the RDPS (RGEM) is so far north I get rain and Sioux Falls get clobbered with snow.  🤬

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Cut cut cut.  I’m loving this  snow no show January.  Let’s keep it going.   

The sunshine is like March this morning 🌄. Ready for spring already. Which ofc will be trash when it gets here no doubt.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

C'mon, man.  Is this thing really going to miss me nw?  The 06z ICON has heavy snow up to Minneapolis.  I may end up with an inch of slop out of this.  🤦‍♂️ 🤮

That’s why I haven’t been getting my hopes up. It’s a broken record around here.  When models show heavy snow to our north they never shift south. When they show it to our south they never shift north. When it shows it right on top of us for days, it will shift.  

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Talked to our school superintendent at church today, we serve as ushers together this month. He asked me my opinion of the storm. I said it looked promising for amounts and moisture. He said he talks with NWS Hastings before a weather event for their opinions. He said to be prepared for a snow day Wednesday if forecasts verify.  

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

That’s why I haven’t been getting my hopes up. It’s a broken record around here.  When models show heavy snow to our north they never shift south. When they show it to our south they never shift north. When it shows it right on top of us for days, it will shift.  

Im just going to plan on being missed rather than get hopes up. This is possibly  going to be all time worst  12 months since I started  the business  here. Drought and no snow not a nice combo.   Ottumwa  had made out fairly  well on snow  despite  some bad winters like eeking out 32"  last season. This year nonstop bankruptcy  weather! Unreal.

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So the trend is not just nw, but also a stronger initial low in the plains, which then transfers energy to a developing low east of Iowa, so there is a break in between.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

My friend - I think that Eastern Nebraska and our local exceptional drought conditions are a bit more due for a decent event than IA/ Chicago… LOL!

No doubt about that. I think a lot of Nebraska is looking good with this one.

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23 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Pretty gross to see the models crap the bed and weaken as they head east

Not holding my breath here… we have seen this situation play out way too many times in the past. If our friends @hawkstwelve and @james1976 somehow end up reeling this one in, I am quitting Winter cold turkey haha! 
 

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Feeling solid about a large swath of Nebraska getting 2"+ from this system. Primary concern in my eyes is how much the expected attendant severe weather event in the Deep South will be, as far as its ability to rob moisture from the cold side of the system. Yesterday's 12z Euro seemed to show this (tracked conveniently on WeatherBell via lightning activity maps) but the projected intensity of these storms has backed off since then... whether that directly correlates to the higher snow totals overnight and today, who knows.

 

NWS Hastings has hoisted Winter Storm Watches extending into east-central Nebraska, which I imagine puts some pressure on NWS Omaha to do something too.

 

Given how we aren't dealing with a huge surface high pushing southeast from Canada in the wake of this storm, I don't think the risk is there's a last-minute shift southeast. Instead, with a multi-day trend of guidance gradually de-amplifying the upper-level trough responsible for this storm but maintaining the strength of simultaneous East Coast ridging, I'm more nervous about the storm trekking north like some sporadic guidance has shown recently. Would much rather be in the Tekemah, NE area than Nebraska City, for example, but Omaha looks decent too.

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