Tom Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Thanks for posting the Euro maps, Tom. Always appreciated. 3-5” in the grids for tonight into tomorrow morning6-11” in the grids for Saturday/Sunday morning. Winds look to be quite strong as well around 30mph. MPX says whiteout conditions very possible.How much snow do you have OTG??? BTW, your looking golden right now buddy...it's like your going to get a taste of what we experienced during the 9-day historic snowy stretch earlier in the month. I would not be surprised if you tally up 15"+ this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 How much snow do you have OTG??? BTW, your looking golden right now buddy...it's like your going to get a taste of what we experienced during the 9-day historic snowy stretch earlier in the month. I would not be surprised if you tally up 15"+ this week.Always some pleasant surprises possible with a rapidly deepening cyclone. I think we’ll hit a combined total of 8” for sure. I’m probably being a bit conservative, but I like to set my expectations low. I haven’t checked the soundings but I wonder if any thunder/upright convection might be possible with this. I have about 3” of compacted glacier OTG this morning. Should at least double that by this evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Always some pleasant surprises possible with a rapidly deepening cyclone. I think we’ll hit a combined total of 8” for sure. I’m probably being a bit conservative, but I like to set my expectations low. I haven’t checked the soundings but I wonder if any thunder/upright convection might be possible with this. I have about 3” of compacted glacier OTG this morning. Should at least double that by this evening.Hopefully the defo band feature pivots in the right spot. Most of the GEFS members show the main axis of heavier qpf totals right through MSP. GEFS have been steadfast with well over 1" qpf across S/C MN and continue to show good trends. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Thanks for the maps Tom. Yeah im riding the edge for sure. Would be nice to get a weekend snowfall! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 06z GEFS. They all can’t be wrong, can they? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 We're still RIGHT on the ptype battle ground. God d****t. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 @ St Paul, 12z NAM heading towards my vision of this storm...nice looking trowal feature feeding into the cold sector with embedded convective look to it. If these trends continue, thundersnow may be a real possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Hastings just not overly enthused about the storm this weekend's snow potential. Forecasts here are for less snow with some freezing precip. thrown in. As I said yesterday, I hope for the best but expect it to be less. 12Z NAM not tremendous here either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 @ St Paul, 12z NAM heading towards my vision of this storm...nice looking trowal feature feeding into the cold sector with embedded convective look to it. If these trends continue, thundersnow may be a real possibility.I just took a look at the 12z. Great look to that for sure. Low looks like it almost moves right overhead but no consequence on thermals. Does shut off the snow a bit sooner though and cuts down on totals a tad. Shift NW with the heavy stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 12z GFS trending a tick stronger at 60. Gonna be another big run it appears. Edit: 3 ticks stronger and 5 ticks stronger at 66 compared to 06z. Woah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 12z GFS trending a tick stronger at 60. Gonna be another big run it appears. Edit: 3 ticks stronger compared to 06zMSP shutdown... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Just need this to go a bit South and we'll be in the game for higher totals. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 981mb in NW Wisco. Man that things bombs out in a hurry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Interesting to compare the current runs to the previous ones. All of the 6z and 18z runs produce lower totals, then the 0z and 12z blast them back up with the upper air data included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 That 12z GFS. Wow. Goes full bomb mode. Been a while since seeing that look and it cutting here and not further east. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 12Z GFS bringing the 6-9" totals down to Omaha on this run. Sucks to be so close to the edge, seems to never work out that good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Wonder if OAX will still go with WSW for I-80 since there looks to be ice beforehand. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 I'm so glad the models have all been spot-on so far this winter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Wonder if OAX will still go with WSW for I-80 since there looks to be ice beforehand.They will. They always issue WSWs when ice AND snow are involved. Actually mildly surprised they didn't jump that gun with today's even though this is a textbook advisory. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 12z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 I would think MPX would pull the trigger on a winter storm watch for the afternoon package if the other 12z models don’t flop. Might have concurrent headlines for tonight’s event and Saturday’s. Or they might hold off until tomorrow morning to avoid confusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 #JealousSo close. Hate riding the edge. I cant let myself get too caught up in this lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Gem takes the low to Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 GEM and RGEM and pretty good hits for Central Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Ugh. This is gonna suck. Oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Ugh. This is gonna suck. Oh well.It's two days away and we're within the margin of error. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 12z GEM upping totals from previous runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 If it moves South both us and the twin cities will get it hard! And Norfolk may not get it. We'll all be happy! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 GEM looks good even for me but i just never put much stock in that model. I think it has won out a few times though so you never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 The ‘true snow liquid ratio’ calculation for the ICON on TT is a joke. 5” totals here through Saturday for 2 decent snow events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 The 12z Euro is going to crush MSP... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 12z Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 ^ That’s a really nice hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 It appears this storm is going to take on a classic, mature winter storm look with a neg tilted trough and a trowal-like feature. This will look very pretty on radar. Makes a classic spring-time look to this map as well - all colors in play Sure, while our 3-day snows added up to 10-20" across S Lakes, it was by the weakest of over-running. This is a truly dynamic bomber like I can only remember in a distant memory, lol #abitjellytbh Good luck and enjoy one for me all you peeps in the path 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 How does it look on the southern edge of the snow band for frz rain? Hopefully rain of not snow. I've got enough ice. 12z Euro... Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 MPX increasing totals in the grids:3-7” tonight 7-13” Sat/Sun 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 MPX increasing totals in the grids:3-7” tonight 7-13” Sat/Sun15” total mean for the 2 systems may not be that far fetched! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 15” total mean for the 2 systems may not be that far fetched!Looking more and more likely. Here come the Winter Storm Watches. ...WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED......MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAYNIGHT... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Looks like the dreaded Platte river is the dividing line between where the WSW was hoisted earlier today. Places along and to the northwest of the river in a watch for Saturday. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...* WHAT...A mix of light snow or light freezing drizzle thisafternoon. Additional snow accumulations less than one inch andice accumulations of a light glaze are expected. These amountsare most likely where precipitation is most persistent. Thenheavy snow expected Friday night into Saturday. Total snowaccumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a lightglaze are possible. Strong winds will not be an issue with thisevent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 WOAH! Winter Storm Watch for Norfolk. They need another big storm, they've been so starved of big storms these past few Winters. /s Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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