gimmesnow Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Is he aware that Minneapolis averages double the amount of snow Omaha does? No, we are all in the same sub forum so we must all get the same amount of snow. Personally, I'm super pissed off keweenaw got more snow than me! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Shift SE on the 18z gfs LSE goes from 21 to 3 Weaker on snow amounts also http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=102 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 18z GFS falling more in line with Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Kind of it’s still stronger than euro Still shows no snow for NE tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Kind of it’s still stronger than euro Still shows no snow for NE thoBut has less QPF, all in all, probably more realistic. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 How much for Omaha? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Gfs ensembles are farther north/wetter than 12z https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2018022518&fh=102 1.25-1.5 qpf showing up in SE WI 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 How much for Omaha?My house: Craigs house: 6-8” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 My house: Craigs house: 6-8”6-8 snowflakes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 My house: Craigs house: 6-8”I'll be surprised if anyone gets 6-8 from this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Wow lol. Well unlike the rest of you, I think your all hilarious and I can take a joke. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Wow lol. Well unlike the rest of you, I think your all hilarious and I can take a joke.6-9 inch totals were the norm in the metro area. Lots of 9 inch totals in thr northern burbs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Wow well congrats! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Wow well congrats!Craig-OmahaWX23 Feb 2018I don't see 9 inches happening up north, its just too fast moving. I could see 4-6 inches max in southern Minnesota Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 NAM with an amped solution which is different than 12z/18z runs 990 NW of STL at 84 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018022600&fh=84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 NAM with an amped solution which is different than 12z/18z runs 990 NW of STL at 84 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018022600&fh=84Hard to believe it when its: A) The 84hr NAMB ) It was showing barely an open wave the last run. Lots of time left on this one yet. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Hard to believe it when its:A) The 84hr NAMB ) It was showing barely an open wave the last run. Lots of time left on this one yet.Yup Phasing systems are the ones models have the most trouble with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Ok I get it, i deserve every bit of that has come towards me in this topic. Can we just move on now? What I don't get is how this is a perfect track for eastern Nebraska yet the main show forms just east. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Gfs caving to the euro Weaker and farther SE again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Better for eastern NEB Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Quite the snowfall total http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Quite the snowfall total http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096Over a tiny, tiny area. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Finally get that track from STL to near Chicago and somehow can’t even get any precip up here this way smh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 So, the 00z nam and ICON are more in phase, the GFS a tad less, the GDPS a tad more. Expect more of this for another day. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 10:1 maps showing a foot for Cedar Rapids. That would be one wet heavy snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 GEM is weaker with the surface low (5-6 mb weaker) and yet it has much more precip https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022600&fh=84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Snowball fight in one person's backyard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Ukie at 96 has a 991 L in central MI http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 This sounds like one of those situations where you won't find out until the night before what it will do. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 This sounds like one of those situations where you won't find out until the night before what it will do. Well, in the next day or two we should have a better idea of how well the northern and southern waves are aligned. We just need the northern wave to not speed out ahead. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Well, in the next day or two we should have a better idea of how well the northern and southern waves are aligned. We just need the northern wave to not speed out ahead.How does the precip look on Ukie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 How does the precip look on Ukie? The 00z Saturday and 00z Sunday UK maps never showed up, and, unfortunately, this evening's 00z maps are not showing, either. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 The past couple systems the biggest snow has ended up being nowhere near where the low suggests it should be. This will likely be the same deal. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 I think snowfall will be narrow or spotty. There may be a yard thats get dumped on good but its far from a share the wealth set up. Too much warm air and L doesnt strengthen soon enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 00z Euro still showing over a foot of heavy wet snow over Iowa, looks to be about 6-8" in CR, with a perfect James bullseye. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 00z Euro slows down the northern wave further, storm looks very similar to the 12z. I'd still love to see the 980 mb low it was showing a couple days ago This is going to be a fun system. First, it wraps up over our forum, then the energy slides east and re-wraps up off southern New England. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Track looks pretty consistent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 This could get interesting around here. Too bad we don't have colder temps around. Nice write up from LOT: Taking the latest suite of operational guidance verbatim, lookslike moderate to locally heavy rain will develop Wednesday nightand continue into Thursday. As a deepening surface low tracks fromcentral IL 12Z Thursday to northern IN by 18Z, very strong N toNNE winds would develop resulting in strengthening cold airadvection, which in combination with dynamic cooling would resultin rain within a pronounce TROWAL region flipping over to a heavywet snow. Forecast soundings from the GFS and ECMWF would supportsustained winds of 30kt+ with mean mixed layer winds over 40kt,with even stronger winds along the lake front. The potential forhigh end gale/near storm force N to NNE winds would also pose asubstantial lakeshore flood threat. Just to make things moreinteresting, the ECMWF and GFS both advect very steep mid levellapse rates northeast into the mid level dry intrusion, whichcould result in sufficient instability for isolated thunderstormswithin the TROWAL and a threat for thundersnow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Reading the DVN and DMX AFDs you once again are left wondering if they are looking at the same models we are. Despite admittedly little confidence DMX has already posted a snow map with light amounts. DVN says 2-4”. DMX says models decreased qpf even though the euro increased it. Regardless we’re probably 36-48 hours away from having a handle on this system. Too many moving parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 00z EPS removed the snow out of N IL and focusing it more into WI/SE MN into MI...its obvious the EPS is having trouble trying to figure this one out with run to run inconsistencies. Expect the same today into tomorrow...either way, this is still looking like a heavy precip producer adding to the already wet conditions we have been having of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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