Esquimalt Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 The wind is blowing at between 45 and 55 mph on exposed coastal sections of south eastern Vancouver Island. Seems to be around 35 or 40 mph here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Blistering. It's been 4 years since the last record warm one at PDX. Due! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 It's been 4 years since the last record warm one at PDX. Due!Just 54 since the last record cold one! 53 since we even had a top 5 cold one. #moredue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just 54 since the last record cold one! 53 since we even had a top 5 cold one. #moredue Wasted a lot of cold anomalies on January 2017. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Only one March since 2009 with measurable snow at SEA. Bit of a drought, currently. I'm surprised. I've had quite a number here. Cold onshore flow is obviously more favorable the closer you get to the Cascades though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Tomorrow night precip intensity will be extremely important. Models struggle mightily with precip amounts in ULL situations so surprises could happen. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Tomorrow night precip intensity will be extremely important. Models struggle mightily with precip amounts in ULL situations so surprises could happen. Looks like a decent little deformation zone is likely for at least the south sound. Temps may be more of the issue, especially if it doesn't move through until late morning. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM had about a 34/32 with temps and Dewpoints Friday morning with the deformation. Not much accumulation below 500' though. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 If the precip arrives about 3 hours earlier, it will be a different story. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 00z GFS still sticking to same snow amounts over PDX. Still very marginal of course. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018030100/048/sn10_acc.us_nw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 WRF staying pretty consistent: Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 WRF staying pretty consistent: Still a blue dot over my house! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Still a blue dot over my house!Then it has to be right! Hopefully the nam agrees 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 WRF looks good for PDX 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 00z GFS still sticking to same snow amounts over PDX. Still very marginal of course. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018030100/048/sn10_acc.us_nw.pngWRF looks good for PDX Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro. Rod Hill: THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level. FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations. KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 D81B2140-3F77-43B4-A4E9-BF6F901F728E.pngLooks like an Esquimalt special on this one. Temps are pretty marginal though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro. Rod Hill: THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level. FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations. KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly.But I thought that Mark Nelson Nielsen dude pulled his sporks out? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 D81B2140-3F77-43B4-A4E9-BF6F901F728E.png That's a nice looking deformation band hanging up around Victoria on Friday morning. Would be quite the surprise for anyone exclusively following the EC forecast. This does feel like a case where the deformation band will likely jog quite a bit north of where it's currently shown to end in the models. Typically it ends up around Nanaimo, but with the low coming in this far south maybe we'll get lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro. Rod Hill: THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level. FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations. KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly. Yeah pretty good set of 00z model runs so far for PDX. We'll have to see what the euro thinks though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 And of course as soon as things are looking good for Friday the LR GFS removes our snow chances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 But I thought that Mark Nelson Nielsen dude pulled his sporks out?For an all day snow/ice storms and major Arctic Blast. He said he could still see snow like in March 2012. "Of course in any year we can still get a brief wet morning snowfall even at the lowest elevations in March, but in these La Niña winter/springs the chance of that happening is higher. Remember March 2012? That’s an extreme version of what can happen, but we saw significant sticking snow overnight hours several times, including at the coastline. In fact even later this week (mainly Friday) we could see brief snowfall in the overnight/morning hours. That’s assuming we have enough moisture when it’s cold enough." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 And of course as soon as things are looking good for Friday the LR GFS removes our snow chances Short range improvements > long range teases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Short range improvements > long range teases.And the long range ensemble actually looks better anyways. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Yeah pretty good set of 00z model runs so far for PDX. We'll have to see what the euro thinks though.The 00z RGEM and HRDPS both show some strong snow showers Monday morning. Would be the absolute perfect timing to get some accumulations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Models have definitely trended a little wetter overall with the upcoming trough. That will mean more highs in the 40s (and snow chances overnight), but also not as many lows near or below freezing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 And the long range ensemble actually looks better anyways.Could you post the chart? Mine isn’t refreshing for some reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 6E164972-E1D1-4EEA-A51E-C73E8FAA4F21.pngWeird how the models don't have any clue on what's going to happen--they're all in disagreement--even though we're about 36 hours out. I think this will be a nowcast event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 6E164972-E1D1-4EEA-A51E-C73E8FAA4F21.pngThat does not look good for the Puget Sound area. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 That does not look good for the Puget Sound area. Doesn't look so great anywhere in the lowlands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Doesn't look so great anywhere in the lowlands.light precip and temps a little above freezing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 light precip and temps a little above freezing. Yeah the temps are just going to be marginal, but seems precip amounts are still up in the air. Going to need solid precip rates and good timing to get anything to stick at low elevations. I suspect someone will probably score a little bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 34 with a little light rain falling. Closed out February with a 39/33 day. Still a few inches of snow on the ground. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 February ended up a solidly below normal temperature month in W. Oregon. With precip only about 50% of average. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 3km NAM Not too bad Not too bad? What are you talking about, it sucks arse... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 February ended up a solidly below normal temperature month in W. Oregon. With precip only about 50% of average.98% of average precip for me...amazing how things changed the further north you got precip wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Starting March off with 32 and a light snow shower. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 35 and mostly cloudy here. As of this morning my snow coverage is gone, just my piles remain. That was one heck of a stretch with snowcover! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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