March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Any offers on the house yet?

Sounds like two different ones might be coming in. Worked like a mad man on the yard in between the open houses this weekend, it’s almost back into shape except I need to finish taking the large Willow down that got nuked by the snow.

[Jesse]

Why are you worried about what I think?  

Because I love you.

[TT-SEA]

Because I love you.

 

 

Are you drinking tonight?   

[Jesse]

 

Are you drinking tonight?

No.

[bainbridgekid]

I hope he does not mind.   I did not show his post here... just that he loved the sunny and warm weather which is like almost everyone else living around here.  

 

And he posted pics of him hiking with Bryant and Brennan last week. 

I don't mind at all.

 

Today was gorgeous and I went for my first outdoor run in months.

 

Like you said, I love cold and snow about as much as any marginally sane person possibly could, but that doesn't preclude me from loving this weather too.

[snow_wizard]

Really nice looking trough on the GFS as we enter week two.  Could be looking at much below normal temps with that feature.

 

No doubt today was absolutely amazing for this time of year.  It felt good to get out and do some yard work.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro continues on the ULL to the South idea.

[snow_wizard]

Euro continues on the ULL to the South idea.

 

The EPS has had much more of a GFS look to it though.  I really like the way the GFS is headed.  Very possible record low scenario if it verifies.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS has had much more of a GFS look to it though.  I really like the way the GFS is headed.  Very possible record low scenario if it verifies.

 

 

 

The EPS is going to blend different ULL positions on its many members and end up looking like a solid, single deep trough.   

 

I am convinced now after 3 weeks of listening to people praising the GFS in the long range with its consolidated cold... that it just does not handle seasonal transitions well.   Because the ECMWF has been ULL happy since late February when we were still Hawaii and there has been nothing to prove it wrong.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The EPS is going to blend different ULL positions on its many members and end up looking like a solid, single deep trough.

 

I am convinced now after 3 weeks of listening to people praising the GFS in the long range with its consolidated cold... that it just does not handle seasonal transitions well. Because the ECMWF has been ULL happy since late February when we were still Hawaii and there has been nothing to prove it wrong.

A couple ULL s and you are ready to give up on the GFS. Nice speculation.

[TT-SEA]

A couple ULL s and you are ready to give up on the GFS. Nice speculation.

 

Maybe during the seasonal transition period?

 

The ECMWF has had a much better handle on the situation since late February.    Until it shows consolidated flow and cold then you guys are just spinning your wheels talking about how great the GFS looks in the long range and how great the ensembles look.   

[TT-SEA]

53 here this morning... 54 down in North Bend.

 

The east wind might be pretty brisk today.   Probably won't feel as nice as yesterday despite being a little warmer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53 here this morning... 54 down in North Bend.

 

The east wind might be pretty brisk today. Probably won't feel as nice as yesterday despite being a little warmer.

Looks like it is around freezing back home.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it is around freezing back home.

 

Mesonet site shows lots of mid to upper 50s around the east side of Seattle... even a 60 in Enumclaw.  

 

The station right by Jim's house is at 56 right now.     Same with Bellevue and Issaquah which don't always get into the east wind.

[Jesse]

Maybe during the seasonal transition period?

 

The ECMWF has had a much better handle on the situation since late February. Until it shows consolidated flow and cold then you guys are just spinning your wheels talking about how great the GFS looks in the long range and how great the ensembles look.

I think you are oversimplifying things just a little. Both models have had their struggles the last few weeks. Ultimately both have trended toward a compromise from what I can tell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene had a massive +2 departure yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

I think you are oversimplifying things just a little. Both models have had their struggles the last few weeks. Ultimately both have trended toward a compromise from what I can tell.

 

That might be true normally... but does not seem like it recently.

 

Since the night when I was in Hawaii pointing out that the ECMWF did not show another arctic blast as was going with a ULL scenario in the long range (that was the night of 2/21) its pretty much been the same.   The ECMWF has been showing a ULL scenario for the next 10 days on almost every run... while the GFS usually goes consolidated and much colder.    The GFS has been over-aggressive for the last 3 weeks.   The ECMWF has generally just struggled with placement of ULLs.    

[TT-SEA]

Eugene had a massive +2 departure yesterday.

 

Only +6 at SEA.  

 

Average temps are on the rise... 64 is not quite as impressive as it was on MLK Day.   

[Jesse]

That might be true normally... but does not seem like it recently.

 

Since the night when I was in Hawaii pointing out that the ECMWF did not show another arctic blast as was going with a ULL scenario in the long range (that was the night on 2/21) its pretty much been the same. The ECMWF has been showing a ULL scenario for the next 10 days on almost every run... while the GFS usually goes consolidated and much colder. The GFS has been over-aggressive for the last 3 weeks. The ECMWF has generally just struggled with placement of ULLs.

I think you are talking about just a handful of GFS runs that we’re showing an “arctic blast” in that time frame. There were Euro runs hinting at it as well. Then of course the GFS completely lead the way with the cold pattern the last half of February.

 

From what I can tell, for the last 7-10 days, the Euro has been overly aggressive with cutting things off and the GFS has been too consolidated. Eventually they meet in the middle.

[Jesse]

Frosty and 32 in Port Townsend this morning.

[TT-SEA]

I think you are talking about just a handful of GFS runs that we’re showing an “arctic blast” in that time frame. There were Euro runs hinting at it as well. Then of course the GFS completely lead the way with the cold pattern the last half of February.

 

From what I can tell, for the last 7-10 days, the Euro has been overly aggressive with cutting things off and the GFS has been too consolidated. Eventually they meet in the middle.

 

Maybe. 

 

The EPS led the way in February.   I was posting really cold EPS maps for 2 weeks before the cold started.  I had no doubt it was coming based on the EPS alone which was so consistently cold.   

 

There were also several celebrated GFS runs in early March showing arctic air lowland snow for this past weekend and into this week.   The ECMWF never really wavered from its ULL scenario.

[Jesse]

Maybe.

 

The EPS led the way in February. I was posting really cold EPS maps for 2 weeks before the cold started. I had no doubt it was coming based on the EPS alone which was so consistently cold.

 

There were also several celebrated GFS runs in early March showing arctic air lowland snow for this past weekend and into this week. The ECMWF never really wavered from its ULL scenario.

There was some talk about those runs, but I think you have made more posts about the reaction to those runs at this point that posts were made about the runs themselves.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly morning in southern New Jersey

[TT-SEA]

There was some talk about those runs, but I think you have made more posts about the reaction to those runs at this point that posts were made about the runs themselves.

The GFS did show that though... and it was in direct contrast to the crappy ECMWF with its ULL bias which is never right. But sometimes it is right and it has had several wins since late February over the GFS.

[Jesse]

Chilly morning in southern New Jersey

You are the new Carmen San Diego.

[Jesse]

The GFS did show that though... and it was in direct contrast to the crappy ECMWF with its ULL bias which is never right. But sometimes it is right and it has had several wins since late February over the GFS.

Sounds like you are making model interpretation into something personal now. Never works out too well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You are the new Carmen San Diego.

Loved that show/game

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like you are making model interpretation into something personal now. Never works out too well.

OK Jesse.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 57 here and 58 in the valley.

 

SEA also jumped up to 54 in the last hour.

[Front Ranger]

Loved that show/game

Same. Geography nerds unite!

[Front Ranger]

Yet another sub-freezing low at station of the gods. All but two lows this month have been below freezing.

[Timmy]

About to get dumped on here on the big island the next few days!

[TT-SEA]

About to get dumped on here on the big island the next few days!

 

I have been tracking the weather down there since we left because I left my bookmarked sites active.  It does not look good.   

 

We really got lucky because the pattern down there recently has been much wetter/cloudier than usual.     We had a couple fairly cloudy days but most days were sunny or partly cloudy.   We also had heavy rain and thunderstorms on two different nights but never during the daylight hours.

 

Where are you staying?

[Timmy]

I have been tracking the weather down there since we left because I left my bookmarked sites active. It does not look good.

 

We really got lucky because the pattern down there recently has been much wetter/cloudier than usual. We had a couple fairly cloudy days but most days were sunny or partly cloudy. We also had heavy rain and thunderstorms on two different nights but never during the daylight hours.

 

Where are you staying?

1/2 mile up the hill from Kailua Kona. It’s really hard to see the microclimates on the gfs here but it looks like well over a foot of rain in the mountains but only about an inch here.

[TT-SEA]

1/2 mile up the hill from Kailua Kona

Seems like that area up on that hill is frequently socked in when its sunny close to the ocean.

 

Obviously not in this pattern though.

[weather girl]

Really is an amazing psychological phenomenon, at least for me. I love the later sunsets..it puts me in a much better mood for some reason.

 

It’s one of the few things I love about summer. Nothing like walking around outside at 9pm in broad daylight.

 

For me, it's summer mornings. They are so clear and quiet, and it's just warm enough to be outside and be comfortable.  And I love the sound of sprinklers. Summers are almost perfect in the PNW. Thankfully, we don't deal with humidity out here the way you guys do on the east coast.

[TT-SEA]

63 and sunny here now.

[Timmy]

The irony is I’m bummed about missing the best weather in several months back home. But it looks like we may get some snow at my place when I get back...

[Jesse]

Lots of sub-freezing lows in western Washington this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of sub-freezing lows in western Washington this morning.

 

Quite few areas around here stayed above 50.