March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Temps still dropping with steady precip throughout the area now. Down to 38 here, I see a lot of stations in the 36-37 range down in the valley now. Should be an interesting few hours.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Even outside that stretch, the vast majority of winters between the early/mid 1950s and early/mid 1970s featured that same pattern. It was so consistent.

 

It started breaking down quickly in the early 1970s, first into an anti-phased regime (Pacific/Atlantic in opposing states, no dual blocks) from 1971-76, which produced the Indo/west-Pacific heat uptake that culminated in the Great Pacific climate shift in 1976/77.

Watch climate change in action.

 

Flip from cool globe/-NAM to warm globe/+NAM happens in just 20 years.

 

1976-80:

 

 

 

1981-85:

 

 

 

1986-1990:

 

 

 

1991-95

 

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Our last truly huge winter here in the PNW was 1968-69. Since then we haven't even gotten close. We are starting to turn things around and since 2008-09 I would say our winters are getting snowier again. Blocking in the sweet spot is starting to get more and more common now. I believe we are going to get another 1949-50/1968-69 type winter in the next decade. No more 1-3 inch snowstorms. The huge snowstorms are coming and going to be more frequent IMHO.

[MossMan]

Lolz.

And I get nothing...must be payback for the 19” of total snow I got last month!

[HighlandExperience]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z was pretty crazy. Just very light snow here now... Maybe even rain mixed in...

[The Swamp]

This almost sounds like an insult.

Do not discount the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its affect on the weather patterns world wide.

 

Joe Bastardi talks about it at times.

 

When studied closely it can tell us a lot about El Niño's and La Ninas.

[HighlandExperience]

Intrigued by the 3k nam showing 4-8 inches over king county. Isolated 9 inch totals. Wow really?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely some rain mixed in here at 1600'. Partially due to light precip, partially due to a bit warmer air aloft this evening. Cooler air aloft will be moving back in over the next few hours.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty crazy.  SEA only managed a -6 in spite of the late morning 34.

 

Just noticed that SEA was -6 on the high and the low and yet it was officially listed as a -5 departure.  

 

Not that it matters for the monthly average... just not sure how that math works.  

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah the NAM has done good but it's been all over the map for tonight. 00z/06z showed practically nothing over an inch, 12z showed fairly widespread 3-5, 18z nothing but a trace, and now 4-9 inches.

 

Not a good sign to pin your hopes on.

 

The morning EURO (maybe 1-2 inches on east side) run was probably most realistic. Will see what it shows tonight. 

[FroYoBro]

Down to 38 and the rain is looking chunky. 

[snow_wizard]

Lolz.

 

The NAM has an extremely interesting solution.  Perfect tracking surface low.  I want to see the GFS show something similar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sexton Mtn. Summit in Southern Oregon has had 3.09" of precip since midnight, all as snow. Their visibility has been under 1/4 mile since 2:45am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty heavy precip moving into SW Oregon now. The mountains are going to be getting blasted the next few hours.

[Phil]

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Our last truly huge winter here in the PNW was 1968-69. Since then we haven't even gotten close. We are starting to turn things around and since 2008-09 I would say our winters are getting snowier again. Blocking in the sweet spot is starting to get more and more common now. I believe we are going to get another 1949-50/1968-69 type winter in the next decade. No more 1-3 inch snowstorms. The huge snowstorms are coming and going to be more frequent IMHO.

I agree the sine wave has likely peaked (as far as the multidecadal NAM vascillation cycle is concerned). If there’s any structural climate analog era to this one, it’s probably the mid/late 1940s (IMO).

 

Of course, when it comes to parameteizing the climate system, you’re really talking about a series of overlapping sine waves, all superimposed on additional series of overlapping sine waves (of perpetually lowering frequency). So the appearance is of something bizarre and excessively non-linear until you zoom out to orbital timescales.

 

So, I do believe there are some notable differences when comparing today’s system state with that of the early/mid 1940s. And while the 2020s will possibly resemble the 1950s in a number of ways, there will clearly be differences there, as well.

 

The big difference may in fact be the increasing amplitude of the bipolar seesaw/ITCZ seasonality that I mentioned earlier, which loses homogeneity to the 1950s both absolutely and seasonally, since said seasonality progresses too slowly backwards over each solar year relative to the annular modes and Pacific warm pool.

 

So, arguably we’re going to repeat the 1950s, as far as the WHEM meridional modes are concerned, but we’ll have more amplified annular modes and an uncertain warm pool state, with an increasingly muted Arctic temperature seasonality, in contrast with an increasingly amplified Antarctic temperature seasonality.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and WRF are considerably snowier for King County early tomorrow morning.  The NWS is much more on board also.  This looks pretty promising.

[Jesse]

Sexton Mtn. Summit in Southern Oregon has had 3.09" of precip since midnight, all as snow. Their visibility has been under 1/4 mile since 2:45am.

 

Portland getting blasted again. <_>

[wx_statman]

41 has got to be one of their coldest highs this late on record. Although granted they have a longer period of record that encompasses some pretty crazy late season events.

 

Yeah, only 1936 had sub-41's later in the season (three of them). So today was actually the late-season record for EUG (1938-). 

[HighlandExperience]

The GFS and WRF are considerably snowier for King County early tomorrow morning. The NWS is much more on board also. This looks pretty promising.

WRF looks ok

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not much action here. 39 with rain.

[ShawniganLake]

And I get nothing...must be payback for the 19” of total snow I got last month!

Nothing here either. We did have a few good dustings back in February though.

[ShawniganLake]

Apparently there was a thunderstorm with accumulating hail here while I was at work. Still some hail left on the sides of the road when I drove home.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah the NAM has done good but it's been all over the map for tonight. 00z/06z showed practically nothing over an inch, 12z showed fairly widespread 3-5, 18z nothing but a trace, and now 4-9 inches.

 

Not a good sign to pin your hopes on.

Of course these assume 10:1 ratios which it won’t be.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, only 1936 had sub-41's later in the season (three of them). So today was actually the late-season record for EUG (1938-). 

 

Holy sheeit.  This is getting super impressive.  Especially when you consider the growing likelihood of another abnormal cold snap in the 8 to 10 day period.

[snow_wizard]

WRF looks ok

 

 

Kind of an understatement I would say.

[snow_wizard]

I agree the sine wave has likely peaked (as far as the multidecadal NAM vascillation cycle is concerned). If there’s any structural climate analog era to this one, it’s probably the mid/late 1940s (IMO).

 

Of course, when it comes to parameteizing the climate system, you’re really talking about a series of overlapping sine waves, all superimposed on additional series of overlapping sine waves (of perpetually lowering frequency). So the appearance is of something bizarre and excessively non-linear until you zoom out to orbital timescales.

 

So, I do believe there are some notable differences when comparing today’s system state with that of the early/mid 1940s. And while the 2020s will possibly resemble the 1950s in a number of ways, there will clearly be differences there, as well.

 

The big difference may in fact be the increasing amplitude of the bipolar seesaw/ITCZ seasonality that I mentioned earlier, which loses homogeneity to the 1950s both absolutely and seasonally, since said seasonality progresses too slowly backwards over each solar year relative to the annular modes and Pacific warm pool.

 

So, arguably we’re going to repeat the 1950s, as far as the WHEM meridional modes are concerned, but we’ll have more amplified annular modes and an uncertain warm pool state, with an increasingly muted Arctic temperature seasonality, in contrast with an increasingly amplified Antarctic temperature seasonality.

 

This sounds highly promising for us.  No doubt the patterns we are currently seeing have a distinct old time look.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how snow in the forecast loses it's ability to draw people to the forum when it's this late.  The models hint at a possible significant event in the morning.

[ShawniganLake]

Amazing how snow in the forecast loses it's ability to draw people to the forum when it's this late. The models hint at a possible significant event in the morning.

I think you have to be more of a weather geek to get excited about snow this late in the season.

 

That early April trough on the gfs reminds me a bit of the 2008 spring season.

[ShawniganLake]

The RGEM and HRDPS also look promising for the central and south sound.

 

Also the HRRR

[Perturbed Member]

35F and chunky rain.

 

Coming down nicely at 600F in the coast range, 32F.

 

[Dave]

Finally back to snow/rain mix. 35 degrees. I'd be super stoked to pick up an inch.

[Jbolin]

Lolz.

If that verifies I'll throw $100 bills into the street

[Dave]

I can't remember the exact year/date, but I got 2 inches of snow around April 18th - 19th. I lived within the Eugene city limits, but was around 750 feet. The snow fell in the middle of the night, obviously.  It was around 10 years ago.

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm excited. Now when will snow start falling?

[ShawniganLake]

I can't remember the exact year/date, but I got 2 inches of snow around April 18th - 19th. I lived within the Eugene city limits, but was around 750 feet. The snow fell in the middle of the night, obviously. It was around 10 years ago.

[Phil]

This sounds highly promising for us. No doubt the patterns we are currently seeing have a distinct old time look.

If I’m right (that’s a big if, lol) this should indeed be a remarkable turnaround for your region. Similar to the turnaround we’ve experienced on the east coast.

 

At least one of these next two winters should be very solid out there (I’m leaning towards 2018/19 being better than 2019/20, which looks like a niño to me). But I think the heavyweight stuff comes after the 2019/20 niño, when the solar minimum will be far enough along to retract the IPWP westward and produce a strong multiyear niña spanning the entirety of the early 2020s.

[Perturbed Member]

34.8F and trying to switch to all wet snow.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, April 2008 was crazy. 

 

518 thicknesses and -8c @850 over Salem...on April 20th. 

[TT-SEA]

Going to snow in King County tonight...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up another inch of snow the past couple of hours.