March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Out of curiosity, what site do you use for 500mb heights and temperatures?

Just the NOAA site. I prefer my model runs without a heated steering wheel.

[Phil]

I didn’t even know “cooling seats” existed until now. Then again I drive a dinosaur.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will say my ex-wife really utilized the heated seats...

[jakeinthevalley]

No cooling seats for me either. Tough day.

Just got back from a week in the Phoenix area. Rental had cooling seats. They are awesome even though max temp while we were there was only about 75f.

 

Got home last night and now they are looking at 90's over the weekend

[TT-SEA]

This afternoon was a pleasant surprise. Models showed a c-zone parking over central King County all afternoon and into the evening... but there has not been any rain here at all today. And it became partly cloudy and calm and very pleasant. Decided to get out and mow the lawn... one less thing to over the weekend.

[Deweydog]

Looks delightful for us next week in Vegas.

[Phil]

This afternoon was a pleasant surprise. Models showed a c-zone parking over central King County all afternoon and into the evening... but there has not been any rain here at all today. And it became partly cloudy and calm and very pleasant. Decided to get out and mow the lawn... one less thing to over the weekend.

Mowing dormant grass seems like a waste of time and money to me. Alas, I digress.

[TT-SEA]

Mowing dormant grass seems like a waste of time and money to me. Alas, I digress.

 

I waited too long since the last time I mowed in early March.   It was way too long and required dumping the bag every couple rounds.   I worked up a sweat!

 

I have resisted getting a riding lawn mower since I figure its good for me to get out there and really work. 

 

[MossMan]

This afternoon was a pleasant surprise. Models showed a c-zone parking over central King County all afternoon and into the evening... but there has not been any rain here at all today. And it became partly cloudy and calm and very pleasant. Decided to get out and mow the lawn... one less thing to over the weekend.

Thought about mowing as well since it has turned nice...but it’s just not going to happen. Perhaps tomorrow if it’s dry, I haven’t even looked at a forecast in several days.

[Front Ranger]

I was hoping for Sir Mix a Lot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My grass is green, but this weekend will be the first time I have to mow. 

[wx_statman]

Not that I’m aware of. Andrew or Demitri would probably have more concrete answers there.

 

This pattern certainly isn’t normal, either. The EPS control run for 4/6-4/11 is just comical looking across the WHEM.

 

 

It's Dmitri. 

 

Early May 2013 is the king of late season snowstorms on the southern Plains. Brought the first official, measurable snowfall to any station in Arkansas during the month of May...ever. I remember the NWS put out a statement at the time about the feat. That storm also dropped an incredible 14" on Rochester, MN on 5/2/2013. Their previous record total snowfall for May was 2.0" in a period of record back to 1893. 

 

If you go a bit further north, there's May 28, 1947 in eastern Nebraska. Dropped 3" on Oakdale and 2" at Central City. That one really blows my mind. Wacked out pattern too. PDX hit 90+ on the 23rd, 25th, and 26th that month while Glasgow, MT fell to 20 on the 28th (4 degrees lower than any other reading so late in the spring).

[MossMan]

Just did a test...cold butt...still works!

[TT-SEA]

First night outside by the fire.   

 

Beautiful evening.

[MossMan]

First night outside by the fire.

 

Beautiful evening.

Bright moon!

[Jesse]

Bright moon!

The native Americans called this one the drizzle moon.

[TT-SEA]

The native Americans called this one the drizzle moon.

 

Fitting.

[MossMan]

Fitting.

For this week!

[Phil]

It's Dmitri.

 

Early May 2013 is the king of late season snowstorms on the southern Plains. Brought the first official, measurable snowfall to any station in Arkansas during the month of May...ever. I remember the NWS put out a statement at the time about the feat. That storm also dropped an incredible 14" on Rochester, MN on 5/2/2013. Their previous record total snowfall for May was 2.0" in a period of record back to 1893.

 

If you go a bit further north, there's May 28, 1947 in eastern Nebraska. Dropped 3" on Oakdale and 2" at Central City. That one really blows my mind. Wacked out pattern too. PDX hit 90+ on the 23rd, 25th, and 26th that month while Glasgow, MT fell to 20 on the 28th (4 degrees lower than any other reading so late in the spring).

That’s fascinating information, thank you for sharing. It sounds like 1947 must have been an extremely amplified pattern..will have to check reanalysis sometime. I also had no idea 2013 was so nutty. Must have been focused west of the Appalachians though, as I don’t remember the weather being too crazy here.

 

And sorry for the name mixup. I know two Demitris so it’s sort of ingrained into my mind, I guess.

[ShawniganLake]

I didn’t even know “cooling seats” existed until now. Then again I drive a dinosaur.

I thought people were joking at first. Never heard of cooling seats before. I can’t even remember the last time I used the AC in my truck. I usually just roll the windows down.

[wx_statman]

That’s fascinating information, thank you for sharing. It sounds like 1947 must have been an extremely amplified pattern..will have to check reanalysis sometime. I also had no idea 2013 was so nutty. Must have been focused west of the Appalachians though, as I don’t remember the weather being too crazy here.

 

And sorry for the name mixup. I know two Demitris so it’s sort of ingrained into my mind, I guess.

 

I think that's the Greek way of spelling it. Mine is Russian. We don't like extra vowels in the motherland. 

 

Spring 2013 was pretty nutty in the N.H. Possibly the fallout from the big SSW that January? Europe had the crazy mid-March cold snap and Channel Islands blizzard, April was record cold in parts of Alaska with persistent cold throughout the month, April also had a number of really impressive Arctic fronts on the Plains including one that dropped Amarillo, TX from 89 to 20 late in the month (a late season record low), early May had the historic snowfall on the Plains followed two weeks later by the greatest early-season heat spike on record (106 in Sioux City, IA on 5/14/2013, 12 days after snow fell in Arkansas), more record cold in AK both in early and mid-May (for so late in the season), and then a historic heat wave up there in mid-June with all-time record highs in the mid-upper 90's, with upslope flow against the Canadian Rockies on the backside of that AK ridge leading to the epic rainfall and flooding in Alberta. Not to mention plenty of incredible dynamics on the Plains during late May, including the infamous EF-5's in Moore and El Reno, Oklahoma. 

[Phil]

I think that's the Greek way of spelling it. Mine is Russian. We don't like extra vowels in the motherland.

 

Spring 2013 was pretty nutty in the N.H. Possibly the fallout from the big SSW that January? Europe had the crazy mid-March cold snap and Channel Islands blizzard, April was record cold in parts of Alaska with persistent cold throughout the month, April also had a number of really impressive Arctic fronts on the Plains including one that dropped Amarillo, TX from 89 to 20 late in the month (a late season record low), early May had the historic snowfall on the Plains followed two weeks later by the greatest early-season heat spike on record (106 in Sioux City, IA on 5/14/2013, 12 days after snow fell in Arkansas), more record cold in AK both in early and mid-May (for so late in the season), and then a historic heat wave up there in mid-June with all-time record highs in the mid-upper 90's, with upslope flow against the Canadian Rockies on the backside of that AK ridge leading to the epic rainfall and flooding in Alberta. Not to mention plenty of incredible dynamics on the Plains during late May, including the infamous EF-5's in Moore and El Reno, Oklahoma.

How do you remember all of this? Good chance you have the largest cerebral hard drive in human history.

 

I just took a screenshot of your post, should I need to reference the info later. Haha. Perhaps it’s no coincidence this year also had a SSW and is -QBO. Though my hunch is this ends up being the start of a walkback from the post-2013 pattern over the North Pacific.

[Phil]

Looking at the 00z GFS over North America, if I didn’t know the date, I would think it was sometime between Thanksgiving and the winter solstice.

 

That’s a December-esque wavetrain. Low frequency.

[ShawniganLake]

C-zone

 

[TT-SEA]

C-zone

 

22960AFB-AAFC-407A-B9EA-82E91FF35B6A.png

 

Might get lucky and have it stay just to my north with a gusty southwest wind here.

 

If it makes it here... it will be heavy wet snow for sure.   

[Phil]

Tim when that c-zone hits:

 

[TT-SEA]

Tim when that c-zone hits:

 

Already got that done.

[Phil]

Looks like she still wants to take it slow. Westerlies still present at/below 50mb.

 

[BLI snowman]

Later next week looks April 1991-esque.

 

Fairly rare to see such a moisture fetch at this juncture in the season.

[Phil]

Pretty cool how the Arctic is being forced southward across the entire WHEM.

 

Suddenly, we have another -NAO event on our hands through the medium term, fighting a hostile Pacific.

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

This upcoming trough looks pretty darn solid.  850s bottom out slightly below -7 on the ensemble mean and the duration is getting longer.

[Phil]

Pretty cool how the Arctic is being forced southward across the entire WHEM.

 

Suddenly, we have another -NAO event on our hands through the medium term, fighting a hostile Pacific.

 

Aleutian Low tries to build the western ridge, -NAO tries to squash it. End result: tight gradient/jet for a little while until the NAO flips positive.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Aleutian Low tries to build the western ridge, -NAO tries to squash it. End result: tight gradient/jet for a little while until the NAO flips positive.

So basically a wetter/warmer pattern for the PNW until the NAO goes positive, which would then lead to ridging over us?

[Phil]

So basically a wetter/warmer pattern for the PNW until the NAO goes positive, which would then lead to ridging over us?

Not sure about warmer, at least initially. I think a brief period of ridging is inevitable, but it keeps getting pushed back thanks to residual/off-climo AAM propagation following the SSW.

 

And when tropical forcing leaves the Pacific, it’s right back to troughing. No firm ridges or heatwaves in sight for at least the next few months (relative to climo).

[Phil]

With the -SAM (-AAO) ongoing, we have both annular modes in a solidly negative state simultaneously for the first time in ages.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.sprd2.gif

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not sure about warmer, at least initially. I think a brief period of ridging is inevitable, but it keeps getting pushed back thanks to residual/off-climo AAM propagation following the SSW.

 

And when tropical forcing leaves the Pacific, it’s right back to troughing. No firm ridges or heatwaves in sight for at least the next few months (relative to climo).

Yeah, the usual reliable EURO which showed the most ridging during this period never came to be.

 

All the teleconnection indices are all over the place and there's no clear signal either way, lots of spread. Usually in these situations best to go with climo for the time being. Will probably see lots of progressive patterns until then.

[MossMan]

34 currently.

[TT-SEA]

My aunt just posted this picture from north central Wisconsin... this fell last night but they still had snow on the ground from the winter snow pack beforehand.   And this is not going to be melting away very soon with highs in the 30s and lows routinely down into the single digits.  

 

 

[Jesse]

The upcoming trough keeps trending a few ticks colder. 06z GFS drops thicknesses down to 523dm over PDX.

[Jesse]

Looks delightful for us next week in Vegas.

Did you just find out your rental has seat coolers?