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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom
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After today's runs, it appears all the models are on board for a potential significant winter storm taking the southern stream storm track from the TX PanHandle up somewhere between the S MW and OHV.  Could this become a Big Dog??  Plenty of days to iron out the details.  Let's discuss...

 

12z EPS...it continues to paint a good signal for a widespread snowstorm from the Plains to the Lower Lakes/OHV region...

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12z Euro OP...

 

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What concerns me is that hopefully a coastal low does not steal the energy from us. We've seen that happen before.  Thoughts on this one??

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Going to depend on when/where the phase occurs...and if at all. My early guess is this will slide south of the lakes leaving us with scraps. Hoping I am wrong but that's how this winter has rolled so far.  Michigan and Indiana seem to be in the better position for this one.

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Timing will be everything with this one.  How strong with the HP be to the east?  How fast does that northern stream move?  The Euro nudged a bit north from previous runs.  I.   But a long way to go with this one. One thing is certain, there will be most likely a significant storm for those that have been left out this winter.   

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

What concerns me is that hopefully a coastal low does not steal the energy from us. We've seen that happen before.  Thoughts on this one??

What's exciting about this one is the low is lifting up from south Texas near the gulf and may lift NNE bringing a ton of gulf moisture with it.  There really is no low moving along the gulf to push the better moisture east.

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Euro S of me, GFS N. I'd immediately punt this if it were the other way around at this range. 

Thermals are a challenge in this heat-sink of a January. Between UHI and just a historically crappy location, I come to bat with two strikes against me already. I can't abide marginal temps at onset. Warmth surging N too strongly is the other thing I have to sweat. And it is not handled by the models (see Omaha just yesterday). Models did/will show consistent nice hits of snow in these marginal situations, just to end up folding their collective hands at go time. I will continue to engage for fun, but tbh my expectations aren't where they should be based on track & strength at this juncture. This is like a shoulder season set-up, even tho it's the heart of winter.  

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Keep moving north please and thank you!

That's far enough! 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CMC and GFS are similar tonight.image.thumb.gif.1a29d7c76c9bd09f04afba8d0d371346.gif

1674874800-US4mYwfHXmI.png

I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still.

I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS,

This one is undoubtedly further
south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the
Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture.
Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant
uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning
negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast
to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time
frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region,
being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold
air and Gulf of Mexico moisture.


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1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still.

I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS,

This one is undoubtedly further
south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the
Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture.
Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant
uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning
negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast
to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time
frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region,
being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold
air and Gulf of Mexico moisture.


Hey welcome!  It's great to have a mid Missouri guy on here.  I like the trends also and I think we have a good chance to see a significant snow. 

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I'm not optimistic about my area getting much, if anything, from this.  At best, we will probably only get brushed by the nw edge.

season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still.

I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS,

This one is undoubtedly further
south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the
Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture.
Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant
uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning
negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast
to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time
frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region,
being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold
air and Gulf of Mexico moisture.


The real + sign I see in the modeling at this distance is the strength of the ULL as it digs deep into the heart of TX/OK and then takes its journey on a great path for our region.  It has been rare this season tracking one of these powerful troughs from the S Plains up into the S MW/OHV this winter, but I got a good feeling about this one smashing the southern/eastern SUB.  Hope we all can share the wealth somehow!

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0z Euro Control...how long has it been since we've seen a real TX Panhandle Cutter that dropped a huge swath of Snow from TX up into the Lower Lakes?  I like our chances @jaster220 @Clinton @Black Hole @Hoosier @Niko....This storm has a real potential to impact quiet a number of our members for the south to the east.  Hopefully it becomes a Beast!

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06z GEFS...

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Some real big hits showing up...

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0z EPS...

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32 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z Euro Control...how long has it been since we've seen a real TX Panhandle Cutter that dropped a huge swath of Snow from TX up into the Lower Lakes?  I like our chances @jaster220 @Clinton @Black Hole @Hoosier @Niko....This storm has a real potential to impact quiet a number of our members for the south to the east.  Hopefully it becomes a Beast!

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06z GEFS...

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Some real big hits showing up...

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0z EPS...

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This mornings GFS has the ULL in a perfect spot in Northern Arkansas to deliver KC and myself a major storm.  Will we see it bomb out over the Lakes or the upper Midwest?

 prateptype_cat-imp.us_c.png

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It looks like Tuesday will be my day for rain.  
70% chance. 🙌
Temps 49-32.  
Looks good and very welcomed.  
Slight chance Monday, 30%, but we won’t hold our breath.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Latest EPS continues to nudge totals upwards. Yesterday I commented on the lack of pre storm cold air, which is still true, but the storm appears to be strong enough to overcome that with precip rates. Probably a lot of 32-34 degree snow. That will cut down on totals a bit, but nonetheless the trend is my friend for now. 

Also worth noting that winds will pick up quite a bit as the low goes by to the southeast with some gusts of 30-40 mph. That first system will probably mostly end up as rain, but a few members showing heavier totals. 

ecmwf-ensemble-KTUL-indiv_snow_24-4194400.pngecmwf-ensemble-KTUL-indiv_qpf_24-4194400.png

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43 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Wow 😍 great hit for my area!! Still several days to go though, there will be some wibble wobble to come im sure.

North has been the trend with storms this season.  I expect this to be the same.  I like where we are sitting as of now.

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