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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom

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Doesn't get much better than this for here. Not understanding the differences between this and your other GIF that shows main swath south thru OH??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

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Doesn't get much better than this for here. Not understanding the differences between this and your other GIF that shows main swath south thru OH??

The gif is the EPS snow mean while the one you posted is the Euro Control...

 

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@jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier

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When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV.  Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking...

image.gif

 

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ECMWF looks pretty similar to last nights run, but like other models a bit further north. Still looks great for my area and actually smatters at least a little snow over a pretty wide swath. KC people should be happier with that track. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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13 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still.

I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS,

This one is undoubtedly further
south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the
Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture.
Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant
uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning
negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast
to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time
frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region,
being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold
air and Gulf of Mexico moisture.


I live in Columbia, Mo so there are a few of us nearby. Hopefully we score with this one. 

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

I was just coming on here to post this...it stopped loading at HR 120

 

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I like to see that it's starting to clip Iowa.  A nice jog NW for us up here still holding out hope.  The Canadian took a huge jump NW and the GFS has been back and forth (typical).  The Euro is usually more measured in it's changes, but at 4-5 days out, it gives me hope of shifting even more this way.  Hopefully it will be a fun weekend of model watching. 

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DVN mentioning a potential phasing and further NW track.  

 

 

A system moving through the Southern Plains is possible Tuesday
through Wednesday. The strength and position of that possible low
pressure are highly variable in one run the next, and from model to
model. For now, we`re advertising moderate chance pops for snow
in the Tuesday night to Wednesday morning period. Should that
system phase with northern stream energy, currently depicted over
Minnesota at that time, we could deal with a more significant
system that would be farther northwest. In any case, it`s one to
keep an eye on, and will be the focus of our forecast once we get
past Saturday night`s snow chance.
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