1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[Clinton]

CMC nudges NW but has been rock steady with this storm.

[FV-Mike]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Total for the entire period (which includes the light snow from this weekend).

 

Would love for this map to verify.

[jaster220]

Doesn't get much better than this for here. Not understanding the differences between this and your other GIF that shows main swath south thru OH??

[Clinton]

Sorry to the Lakes area as the CMC has stalled at hr 138 so this doesn't have the whole storm for ya.  As Bud mentioned a jump NW for the Canadian.

 

[Tom]

17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Doesn't get much better than this for here. Not understanding the differences between this and your other GIF that shows main swath south thru OH??

The gif is the EPS snow mean while the one you posted is the Euro Control...

 

[Stacsh]

Oh Canada 

[Tom]

12z Euro with a jump NW as there is a stronger HP over Ontario Canada this run...

[winterfreak]

EURO is better but still not enough.

[bud2380]

Significant jump NW as Tom mentioned vs. 00z.

 

[Tom]

Big hit coming for N IN/S MI folks...

[bud2380]

12z vs. 00z big trend in the right direction for MBY, although still not much showing up, at least it's something.

 

[Tom]

@jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier

 

 

When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV.  Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking...

 

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GFS DUMPS me!

[Black Hole]

ECMWF looks pretty similar to last nights run, but like other models a bit further north. Still looks great for my area and actually smatters at least a little snow over a pretty wide swath. KC people should be happier with that track. 

[shakjen]

I have seen this movie before. 5 days out from the big pre-xmas storm. Only to get an inch. Hopefully this doesn't do the same.

[Black Hole]

I'll take ensemble number 28 please. But in all seriousness, big time adjustment on the GEFS. 

[ATW]

13 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still.

I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS,

This one is undoubtedly further
south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the
Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture.
Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant
uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning
negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast
to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time
frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region,
being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold
air and Gulf of Mexico moisture.

I live in Columbia, Mo so there are a few of us nearby. Hopefully we score with this one. 

[ATW]

2 hours ago, winterfreak said:

LMAO, I’m done with winter if this storm plays out like this:

That would suck. Didn’t this happen last year to KC? We seemed to be in the bullseye in Columbia last year.

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, ATW said:

That would suck. Didn’t this happen last year to KC? We seemed to be in the bullseye in Columbia last year.

It’s been happening for years. We’ve been missed to the north, south, east, and west. Rough stretch.

[ATW]

3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

It’s been happening for years. We’ve been missed to the north, south, east, and west. Rough stretch.

I hope you score with this one. Seems to be creeping NW with every run.

[Black Hole]

Here is the 12z EPS for down here, continued uptrend in totals. 

[winterfreak]

9 minutes ago, ATW said:

I hope you score with this one. Seems to be creeping NW with every run.

I hope we all do.

[Tom]

12z EPS  looking much more organized...

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

12z EPS  looking much more organized...

You can see that connection to the artic air also.

[tStacsh]

51 minutes ago, shakjen said:

I have seen this movie before. 5 days out from the big pre-xmas storm. Only to get an inch. Hopefully this doesn't do the same.

Accuweather makes me laugh.  But hey, at least there is something to track.  

[bud2380]

Anyone have the 12z Euro control?

[Tom]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Anyone have the 12z Euro control?

I was just coming on here to post this...it stopped loading at HR 120

 

 

[Tom]

LOL, it just loaded a few more pages...very similar to the Euro Op.

 

[bud2380]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

I was just coming on here to post this...it stopped loading at HR 120

 

 

I like to see that it's starting to clip Iowa.  A nice jog NW for us up here still holding out hope.  The Canadian took a huge jump NW and the GFS has been back and forth (typical).  The Euro is usually more measured in it's changes, but at 4-5 days out, it gives me hope of shifting even more this way.  Hopefully it will be a fun weekend of model watching. 

[bud2380]

DVN mentioning a potential phasing and further NW track.  

 

 

A system moving through the Southern Plains is possible Tuesday
through Wednesday. The strength and position of that possible low
pressure are highly variable in one run the next, and from model to
model. For now, we`re advertising moderate chance pops for snow
in the Tuesday night to Wednesday morning period. Should that
system phase with northern stream energy, currently depicted over
Minnesota at that time, we could deal with a more significant
system that would be farther northwest. In any case, it`s one to
keep an eye on, and will be the focus of our forecast once we get
past Saturday night`s snow chance.

[MIKEKC]

I know it's the ICON....BUT.....it trended NW bigtime on its most recent 18z run!!!! Compare 12z to the current,, big shift. 

 

 

[uticasnow]

Always goes northwest, then toward the end it actually drifts south and east

[KTPmidMO]

16 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

I know it's the ICON....BUT.....it trended NW bigtime on its most recent 18z run!!!! Compare 12z to the current,, big shift. 

 

 

Can you post it here?

[jaster220]

Haha @ Blizzard conditions map. VERY afraid of GFS's north rainer portrayal. Euro sig jump NW is no bueno! Going to be the classic S Stream SLP that brings too much WAA aloft and makes my hot corner of The Mitt just a few deg's too warm. This happens like 9 out of 10 times in this region. Especially with current warm era.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier

 

 

When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV.  Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking...

 

So, there's mby's best weenie fantasy map. We all know the direction it goes from here. Not the storm itself. It may continue to ramp and bury MKE. I'm speaking for my locale only.

[winterfreak]

18z GFS not very good here. Congrats St. Louis:

[Niko]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier

 

 

When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV.  Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking...

 

This gives me over a foot of snow Luv it! 

[bud2380]

10 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

18z GFS not very good here. Congrats St. Louis:

Yesterday the GFS had this storm blasting eastern Iowa.  Now it's blasting STL.  I'd look at it for fun, but not take much away from the GFS until we get closer to the storm personally.  

[Clinton]

45 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Can you post it here?

The ICON wraps in some warm air and cuts into snow totals.  It has trended further NW and colder.

 

 

 

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is just insanity. 

[Iceresistance]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The ICON wraps in some warm air and cuts into snow totals.  It has trended further NW and colder.

 

 

 

I'm literally at the sharp cutoff zone in Oklahoma. Norman gets a foot, compared to Shawnee and Tecumseh getting 6 inches. 

[jcwxguy]

Come on 120 mile shift nw lol

[Clinton]

While the 18z GFS operational was further east, the GEFS crept further NW vs 12z.

 

[OKwx2k4]

This one looks beautiful on the plateau here in the Ozarks. I'm getting my hopes up.. Blizzard conditions is starting to look interesting. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Here is the 12z EPS for down here, continued uptrend in totals. 

Both EPS and GEFS with a really large (wide) snow swath. That's not your run-of-the-mill half a state wide coverage zone. It seems to lend all of us quite a bit of wiggle room and still get a decent snowfall. Liking trends this pm

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This one looks beautiful on the plateau here in the Ozarks. I'm getting my hopes up.. Blizzard conditions is starting to look interesting. 

Friend, I hope you score bigly! 

[jaster220]

@Niko Gettin serious now bud, we've been "coned"  STL->IND->DTW special in the works??

 

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean both further south this evening.  Euro has a case of the wobbles today.

[winterfreak]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean both further south this evening.  Euro has a case of the wobbles today.

EURO has been south the whole time, but this is a really bad look. Yikes. We’re on the nw fringe on every model.  Just don’t see how this suddenly trends where we need it to at this point. Looks like an OHV storm.

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean both further south this evening.  Euro has a case of the wobbles today.

Despite that DVN blurb posted earlier, the ORD Met RC that did this afternoon's afd noted that the S Stream shortwave will be the driver on this one and the phasing alluded to earlier is becoming less likely so the Euro may be adjusting/reflecting that expected outcome. Most likely takes the monster system off the table but helps me sleep a little better at night knowing an over-amped phase is less likely to bring the rains into mby. Still a long ways to go tho, so who knows. Just happy to see a legit shot here.