1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[jaster220]

Interesting that the PV bliz was expected to be quite a bit further S even 3 days prior (vs 5 days on map above):

This map was very close to what actually happened:

 

Attm, track looking more like this:

[Niko]

17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko Gettin serious now bud, we've been "coned"  STL->IND->DTW special in the works??

 

Fun times ahead amigo.  My local forecaster just said that heavy snow is possible and to stay tuned.

[jaster220]

GRR pm 

-- Bigger threat for accumulating snow mid next week --

The most impactful system in the 7 day forecast is clearly the
system for mid next week. A Southern Plains low is forecast to
move northeast towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday and move through
the area on Wednesday. In the operational models, the ECMWF, GFS
and Canadian there is spread in where the low is located Wednesday
evening. Essentially anywhere in the Southern Great Lakes region
is fair game at this point. The ECMWF ensemble mean low position
is near Lake Erie Wednesday evening with many of the individual
members over Lake Erie or the state of Ohio. This is a favorable
position for our southern CWA (I-96 corridor to the south) to see
accumulating snow. It does appear at this time to be cold enough
in the ECWMF and GFS for snow looking at both surface temperatures
and 850mb temperatures. So, we will be watching this time frame
closely to monitor trends in the models on location of the swath
of heavier snow. At this time the swath of snow could be on the
order of 6+ inches given a moisture tap of gulf origins. That
said, gulf moisture does not completely surge into the state

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Fun times ahead amigo.  My local forecaster just said that heavy snow is possible and to stay tuned.

You watch local forecasters, LOL (TV is so last century)

[Niko]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

You watch local forecasters, LOL (TV is so last century)

  Tbh, I usually like watching the news (mostly recorded, so I don't have to deal w/ commercials), so, then I figure I see what they have to say for our weather. My favorite Meteorologist is Paul Gross.

[uticasnow]

Paul Gross is great, too bad he is retiring....

[KTPmidMO]

Patiently waiting for the 00z GFS run...

[winterfreak]

Awful:

[winterfreak]

Snowfall:

[KTPmidMO]

How has the accuracy been for the GFS at this range in past storms this year?

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Snowfall:

Good hit for Oklahoma folks, Jaster and Niko.  No bueno for KC and Chicago.

[Stacsh]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good hit for Oklahoma folks, Jaster and Niko.  No bueno for KC and Chicago.

Keep going south.  Let’s keep this streak of no snow going! 

[winterfreak]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good hit for Oklahoma folks, Jaster and Niko.  No bueno for KC and Chicago.

Yessir. Maybe we’ve already seen our last flake this winter? Looks grim.

[ATW]

55 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Patiently waiting for the 00z GFS run...

Starting to look like I’m a little too far north in Columbia. You’re marginally better. Probably an I-44 storm. 

[Clinton]

0z GEFS

[KTPmidMO]

11 minutes ago, ATW said:

Starting to look like I’m a little too far north in Columbia. You’re marginally better. Probably an I-44 storm. 

Don't give up hope yet. We still have 3-4 days before this storm is here. Alot of wibble wobble to come still I believe. Boy I would love GFS ensemble p08 or p19 to verfiy! 

[Hawkeye]

Counting on good phasing to pull it significantly more nw is not a great spot to be in.  It's likely to slide southeast of my area.

[OKwx2k4]

That's a nice looking ensemble run there! Wowza.

[winterfreak]

Credit to @bud2380 for sharing the link earlier
0z CMC:

[KTPmidMO]

6 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Credit to @bud2380 for sharing the link earlier
0z CMC:

CMC down or something? Do we have a snowfall accumulation map? Looks like low and track is in good position for us here in Missouri. @winterfreak 

[winterfreak]

41 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

CMC down or something? Do we have a snowfall accumulation map? Looks like low and track is in good position for us here in Missouri. @winterfreak 

I think it’s down. No snowfall map right now.

[winterfreak]

0z EURO is flatter with the system. Lame for most. 
 

Map:

[Tom]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z GEFS

This has Okie Land written all over it and then up thru MO into IN/S MI....it's questionable up this way as to how far north the moisture can wrap up into the defo zone.  I'm interested to see how the models begin to digest the northern piece in the coming days as that could possibly lengthen the duration of snow falling.  The 0z CMC is my best friend ATM and has been eerily consistent while the EURO & GFS have been going back n forth.  To my eyes, it looks like the 0z CMC holds the neg tilt formation a bitt longer than the other models as the storm tracks thru the S MW/OHV.  

By Noon CST, the energy is forecast to hit the PAC NW and enter upper air network so I would expect to see some better data.  Actually, once this digs into the 4 corners, we could still see some adjustments bc the models typically have a hard time handling these type of set ups.  I'm leaning towards better phasing in the coming days.

 

[Tom]

0z EPS...it's been many many years since we can say that a true winter storm laid down snow from the Ozarks of OK/AR up thru the S MW/OHV....

 

 

 

 

0z Euro Control...

[Clinton]

51 minutes ago, Tom said:

This has Okie Land written all over it and then up thru MO into IN/S MI....it's questionable up this way as to how far north the moisture can wrap up into the defo zone.  I'm interested to see how the models begin to digest the northern piece in the coming days as that could possibly lengthen the duration of snow falling.  The 0z CMC is my best friend ATM and has been eerily consistent while the EURO & GFS have been going back n forth.  To my eyes, it looks like the 0z CMC holds the neg tilt formation a bitt longer than the other models as the storm tracks thru the S MW/OHV.  

By Noon CST, the energy is forecast to hit the PAC NW and enter upper air network so I would expect to see some better data.  Actually, once this digs into the 4 corners, we could still see some adjustments bc the models typically have a hard time handling these type of set ups.  I'm leaning towards better phasing in the coming days.

 

Seems odd to have such a suppressed storm track without artic air suppressing the pattern.  Theses areas in SE MO do get big snows but typically when they do it's because the pattern is suppressed.

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control

[Clinton]

6z EPS is unchanged

GEFS took another step south.

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Good hit for Oklahoma folks, Jaster and Niko.  No bueno for KC and Chicago.

Models seem to be in a phase (pun intended) where they are de-amplifying the wave. Prolly some data ingest that "lost" the phasing with the northern piece of energy. I agree with Tom's comment. That inter-action will likely come back into play and again pull this NW about 1/2 a state (imho) from what we're seeing attm. The overnight runs no doubt have OH Peeps geeking-out, but I'd not want to be riding the southern edge of the +SN swath. And as you've mentioned, without any arctic air pressing S, these trends make little sense. If anything, the WAA should be over-performing as this turns the corner and heads NNE. I'd expect a lot of places that think they're getting only snow to end up with a messy mix and perhaps even switching to plain rain. Days and days to go, but I like it S of here at this range. @Stacsh is the LES guy, so his comments on this synoptic system are not to be taken seriously, lol.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z EPS is unchanged

GEFS took another step south.

Perfect.

[jaster220]

Yes pls

[jaster220]

DTX overnight much more "into it"

The quiet weather comes to an end Wednesday as the next
winter storm targets the region. Unlike many of the recent systems
that have curled north over the Midwest keeping us on the warm side
of the storm, models have held firm with a more southern track with
the surface and mid level lows tracking from Texas (Wed 00Z) up to
Ohio (Thurs 00Z) with southern MI solidly on the northwestern flank
of the system. Many ingredients are becoming favorable for an
accumulating snowfall over the area. The surface low will be
maturing near the area, favorable mid level deformation noses into
the southern Great Lakes, entrance region dynamics from an exiting
jet and exit region dynamics from rapidly approaching jet,
deformation region passing over the area, and a wealth of moisture
to name a few. Just how much snow will fall remains in question as
we are still 5 days out and a shift south would keep us more in a
light snow scenario, and north could push heaviest snow to the
north. For now we`ll highlight the potential for accumulating
snowfall Wednesday morning through the overnight.

[jaster220]

Can we just stop here, lol and do the 0z GEM??

 

[Clinton]

12z GFS

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Seems odd to have such a suppressed storm track without artic air suppressing the pattern.  Theses areas in SE MO do get big snows but typically when they do it's because the pattern is suppressed.

The lack of a deep trough behind the closed low seems to allow it to eject more east instead of being pulled a bit NW seems to be the problem. There is some energy back there though, so it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. 

[Clinton]

Just now, Black Hole said:

The lack of a deep trough behind the closed low seems to allow it to eject more east instead of being pulled a bit NW seems to be the problem. There is some energy back there though, so it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. 

Good news for you is that both scenarios treat Oklahoma well.  Hope you guys get crushed down there.

[Black Hole]

Yesterdays 18z and 00z runs went more south, but seeing the GFS trend a bit north again. As others noted, I would rather be on the northern edge than the southern. I expect some of the heavier stuff shown to the south to trend a bit north in the home stretch.

The other issue, that I am not sure how it will play out, will be precipitation rates. This storm could still track in the right spot and be a cold rain if precip isn't heavy enough. I'd like to see the intensity trend back up, similar to yesterdays 12z runs on the EPS, etc. 

[Clinton]

12z CMC

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z CMC

GEM for President! Still like the large area of coverage, track, etc. Just hold that and amp the qpf a bit at game-time as @Black Hole was saying.

[KTPmidMO]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z CMC

Canadian and Euro show such a bigger overall swath of snow than what than what GFS is painting right now. I think someone else mentioned this as well, but the 12z GFS run did stop the movement south. The 3-4 previous runs from the GFS had a huge move south on every one of them. Curious if that is a sign of a movement back north from here?

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

GEM for President! Still like the large area of coverage, track, etc. Just hold that and amp the qpf a bit at game-time as @Black Hole was saying.

I will never complain about 3 to 4 inches of snow and the GEFS took a baby step back to the north.  Like you said lets amp it up a little and maybe expand the coverage.

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Canadian and Euro show such a bigger overall swath of snow than what than what GFS is painting right now. I think someone else mentioned this as well, but the 12z GFS run did stop the movement south. The 3-4 previous runs from the GFS had a huge move south on every one of them. Curious if that is a sign of a movement back north from here?

The south bleed has stopped on the GEFS and it took a baby step back north.

[Tom]

12z UKIE looked weak at 500mb and really opens up the wave but still manages to lay down some decent snow that'll cover up the ground...

 

Both systems combined...

[Black Hole]

Snow has trended WAY down for Oklahoma in the latest runs. It seems to be related to a trailing shortwave trough. Read more about it on my twitter if you want, just don't want to type it all again lol
 

 

[Tony]

Looking at the 12z run of the NAM, this model shows the best outcome for a better phase of this system compared to most of the other models.  Better interaction of both waves is what will be needed to throw moisture/snow farther NW of the system. GFS seems to be the only stingy model in this regard but at the end, it may be correct. All the other models say different outcome.

[jaster220]

Full sampling for Monday 0z Suite?? I think that's the rumor anyways

[jaster220]

Another look at the 23/12z GEM and how it "pulls" the cold into the storm. DTX mentions how an arctic CF will come into place early week and provide a fresh supply of the chill. Verbatim for this region it's hard to get much better track with the MSLP ending up right in the center of Lk Erie

 

[Clinton]

12z Euro with a little phasing bringing the snow further west.

[KTPmidMO]

Is there a real chance this thing comes back NW like it was showing yesterday? I really need it to in my backyard, I'm so close to the good stuff. lol

[Niko]

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Another look at the 23/12z GEM and how it "pulls" the cold into the storm. DTX mentions how an arctic CF will come into place early week and provide a fresh supply of the chill. Verbatim for this region it's hard to get much better track with the MSLP ending up right in the center of Lk Erie

 

The track cannot get any better for us. Plain perfection!