1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[WinterSquall23]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

It's official

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
350 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

MIZ076-082-083-240900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
350 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The onset of snow appears as if it will
  come mainly after the morning commute so the biggest travel
  impacts will occur as conditions deteriorate steadily from late
  morning into the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

NW metro getting in on the action. 

[jaster220]

35 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

NW metro getting in on the action. 

Funny, I don't consider Milford the "metro" but I guess it kind of is now 32 yrs after I moved out of SEMI the first time

[Black Hole]

Still some uncertainty amongst the model guidance. For example the latest 18z EPS there are still members with no snow here. But also the 18z GEFS had a few ensemble members as high as 19". I guess that's the way it goes, you never really know for sure the way these things will go and that is what makes it fun!
 

I won't be able to post in real time as much as I'd like since I will be stuck in the NWS Tulsa office tomorrow afternoon, but I will try and sneak in some updates now and again for those interested in what is going on here. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

close to a pretty good  track for my backyard but for some reason the snow bands don’t extend that far out from the lp on the models.  Will be interesting.  I feel like broad storms like this will have surprises and I wouldn’t be surprised if I outperform the 2” forecasted.  

Watching the offices along the southern edge of the headlines and how they are increasing the "changing to rain" wording tells me they see this riding a bit north of where we started a couple days ago. If the NAM's correct, much more of SMI could do well. GRR and IWX both acknowledge that potential. 

[Black Hole]

As for a night before forecast, I think the 10th-90th percentile forecast is probably like 1-7", but a best guess of 3-5" for my house seems reasonable.

Lots of high-res guidance showing 6-12", but I do think the warm ground temperatures and pre-storm airmass will take some time to overcome. Snow ratios probably climb towards 10-1 as moisture is finally wrapping up at the end. 

[Black Hole]

But who knows, adjusting the SLR for the craziest GEFS member and maybe we get a foot of snow. I'd sure love to see it!

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Black Hole said:

As for a night before forecast, I think the 10th-90th percentile forecast is probably like 1-7", but a best guess of 3-5" for my house seems reasonable.

Lots of high-res guidance showing 6-12", but I do think the warm ground temperatures and pre-storm airmass will take some time to overcome. Snow ratios probably climb towards 10-1 as moisture is finally wrapping up at the end. 

It's like a Nov storm for us up here. I remember SR models insisting on 8-12" for me during the 11-26-18 storm. Ended up raining a lot longer before the flip. Got 4". Kind of surprised at how warm it will be tomorrow down there and still getting a storm. It isn't even below freezing for the past few nights is it?

[jaster220]

Storm in cycle 1

 

[jaster220]

Love how the NAM lingers the SLP just east of here. CLE mentions the "drifting east" of the SLP as it occludes and x-fers

 

[OKwx2k4]

30 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

As for a night before forecast, I think the 10th-90th percentile forecast is probably like 1-7", but a best guess of 3-5" for my house seems reasonable.

Lots of high-res guidance showing 6-12", but I do think the warm ground temperatures and pre-storm airmass will take some time to overcome. Snow ratios probably climb towards 10-1 as moisture is finally wrapping up at the end. 

I would agree very well with this.

[KTPmidMO]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Storm in cycle 1

 

That low looks more NW than what is forecast with the storm this go around. Wonder what will happen exactly. hmm

[KTPmidMO]

Does anyone have access to all the ensemble members for the 18z GEFS and can post here? thanks!

[Clinton]

21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Storm in cycle 1

 

 

10 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

That low looks more NW than what is forecast with the storm this go around. Wonder what will happen exactly. hmm

It was further NW the first time around than any of the models forecasted and this is another reason to like the NAM as it is the closest to a match.  It won't be long and we'll have the good ole radar to watch.

 

[Niko]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Love how the NAM lingers the SLP just east of here. CLE mentions the "drifting east" of the SLP as it occludes and x-fers

 

Its a wall of heavy snow rushing in towards S MI.

[Black Hole]

35 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

It's like a Nov storm for us up here. I remember SR models insisting on 8-12" for me during the 11-26-18 storm. Ended up raining a lot longer before the flip. Got 4". Kind of surprised at how warm it will be tomorrow down there and still getting a storm. It isn't even below freezing for the past few nights is it?

I got down to 22F this morning. 35F now after a high of 50F. Wet bulb will be just above freezing but melting snow should push us down to 32-33F during the storm. But I agree, weird for the night before and ultimately why I am lowballing the high res guidance. 

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Does anyone have access to all the ensemble members for the 18z GEFS and can post here? thanks!

[KTPmidMO]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

It was further NW the first time around than any of the models forecasted and this is another reason to like the NAM as it is the closest to a match.  It won't be long and we'll have the good ole radar to watch.

Do you have a snapshot of the 500MB of what the models were predicting the day or 2 prior to the storm back in November? Would be interesting to see a snapshot of what the models were predicting then compared to a snapshot like you had above of the actual storm.

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its a wall of heavy snow rushing in towards S MI.

I don't normally even bother with the CAM's (don't follow severe much), but the HRRR looked a lot like the NAM this evening with an even deeper SLP

 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Do you have a snapshot of the 500MB of what the models were predicting the day or 2 prior to the storm back in November? Would be interesting to see a snapshot of what the models were predicting then compared to a snapshot like you had above of the actual storm.

unfortunately I don't.  Someone may know a way to go back and find one for that day. 

[Niko]

Just now, jaster220 said:

I don't normally even bother with the CAM's (don't follow severe much), but the HRRR looked a lot like the NAM this evening with an even deeper SLP

 

That is such a beauty. It has it snowing till Thu morning....

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

That is such a beauty. It has it snowing till Thu morning....

My sister has an 11 am flight out of DTW. Texted her to expect delays and hopefully not a cancellation scenario. Told her since we spoke Saturday the arrival of snow had moved up to early morning. 

[winterfreak]

NAM vs. the world?

[Niko]

Just now, jaster220 said:

My sister has an 11 am flight out of DTW. Texted her to expect delays and hopefully not a cancellation scenario. Told her since we spoke Saturday the arrival of snow had moved up to early morning. 

Weren't they saying yesterday that snow will be starting by midday, if not by early afternoon. Now it is the AM hr instead.

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

That is such a beauty. It has it snowing till Thu morning....

And we are NOT spiking temps to 50F like the day prior to both larger storms last winter. I'd like to see clouds keep us in the low 30's but even the forecasted 37 degs in a huge improvement over last year. 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

NAM vs. the world?

It hasn't flinched. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds

[Niko]

Just now, jaster220 said:

And we are NOT spiking temps to 50F like the day prior to both larger storms last winter. I'd like to see clouds keep us in the low 30's but even the forecasted 37 degs in a huge improvement over last year. 

Also, w/ arctic air coming and more future snows, looks like we will have snow otg for quite some time.

[jaster220]

Just now, Niko said:

Also, w/ arctic air coming and more future snows, looks like we will have snow otg for quite some time.

Ikr. This is how winter is supposed to be. Not one and done with 2 days of cold followed by torching. Even if we don't score big on the future events, this should put a nice snow pack around here for a while anyways. Plow piles longer ofc. 

[KTPmidMO]

@ClintonCan you post ensemble members when able of the 00z GEFS currently running?

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

@ClintonCan you post ensemble members when able of the 00z GEFS currently running?

[KTPmidMO]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Thanks!

[jaster220]

Been mentioned how the models seem to take turns. Different models performing best on a given storm. I sure hope it's the NAM's turn on this one, lol

[jaster220]

HRRR with 6-8" around here (with possibly a bit more icing on the cake afterwards)

 

[jaster220]

Interesting to see Storm Warnings along the Gulf Coast. Not sure I remember that before?

[Niko]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Been mentioned how the models seem to take turns. Different models performing best on a given storm. I sure hope it's the NAM's turn on this one, lol

My local forecaster just said 4-6Inches for my area and 5-7 for Detroit south. Then he said that it could be more for my area and others, so stay tuned.

Classic snowstorm track for us!

 

[ATW]

58 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

That low looks more NW than what is forecast with the storm this go around. Wonder what will happen exactly. hmm

I’m starting to become more optimistic with this event. 

[ATW]

58 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

It was further NW the first time around than any of the models forecasted and this is another reason to like the NAM as it is the closest to a match.  It won't be long and we'll have the good ole radar to watch.

 

There does seem to be a precip minima across the state between heavier bands. Hopefully not the case.

[Niko]

My area is in the 6-8Inch category and not in a WSW? Not sure why!

[Stacsh]

19 minutes ago, Niko said:

My area is in the 6-8Inch category and not in a WSW? Not sure why!

I don’t think they are confident.  Still time to upgrade If needed 

[Hawkeye]

The 00z Euro has trended toward the GFS with the trailing upper energy digging down from the north.  As it digs through Iowa it pulls some moisture back into eastern Iowa.

[Clinton]

This mornings models still looking good for mby to receive 2-4 inches.  KC peeps not a lot of wiggle room as most models have the city on the NW edge.  Good luck to everyone as it's almost show time for Oklahoma.

6z NAM

3km NAM

6z GFS

[Clinton]

Updated forecast from EAX

Good discussion from EAX

..Discussion...

Water vapor imagery this morning perfectly shows our incoming
weather maker, a 500mb low plowing out of southeast New Mexico and
into the Texas Panhandle. And ahead of it, a resultant shortwave
ridge that will leave us in dry and calm conditions this morning and
early afternoon with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s before the
H5 low swings northeast into our forecast area. Overlapping
composite reflectivity over water vapor imagery represents this
system`s vigor well, with a modest amount of moisture and WAA
filling into the eastern flank of the low. This system as a whole
will continue to strengthen as the parent upper level trough aids in
guiding this feature to the northeast. As this system approaches the
Southern Plains around 00Z tonight, strong isentropic ascent (best
seen in the 315 K layer) will overspread across southern
Kansas/Missouri. A thin layer of warm air at the surface roughly
1500 feet deep will keep our first couple of hours of precipitation
as a rain/snow mix for areas along and south of I-70 this evening
around the 5PM to 6PM hours. This is anticipated to change quickly
as the thermal column cools to the wet bulb temperature. During the
first hour or two of snowfall, snow ratios will be lower (around 8:1
to 10:1) resulting in lower snowfall totals initially. However, if
for whatever reason you are awake closer to midnight, you may see
some larger snowflakes as temperature cool. That`s pretty neat.

After midnight, temperatures will slowly drop near 30 degrees with
snow ratios rising above 10:1, which is when we anticipate the
greater snowfall accumulation to occur. Our H5 low will track just a
hair south of the I-44 corridor, lining our CWA up to receive
additional snowfall as moisture from the TROWAL wraps around the
system. During the Wednesday morning commute, the heavier snowfall
is anticipated to wind down; however, lingering light snowfall is
still possible well into the late morning hours Wednesday as the
system pushes east. Caution is advised if traveling Wednesday
morning. Currently, snowfall estimates range between 2 to 4 inches
east of Interstate 35, and a trace upwards of 2 inches west and
along Interstate 35. We are still looking at the chance for a
frontogenetical band to set up just north of the low as it passes
through southeastern Missouri early Wednesday morning. If this does
occur, we may be looking at heavier amounts of snowfall along
Interstate 70, closer into central Missouri. Right now, the eastern-
most part of our CWA may see localized amounts near 5 inches, but if
strong convergence does indeed materialize, we may receive higher
amounts.

[Clinton]

If we can average 10:1 ratios which EAX indicated it's a little bump in accumulations for mby.

 

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z Euro has trended toward the GFS with the trailing upper energy digging down from the north.  As it digs through Iowa it pulls some moisture back into eastern Iowa.

I was waiting and hoping for the models to show this development and one of the reasons this storm should have some interesting surprises out your way and MBY.  It's kinda nice to see both the EURO/GFS in the same camp and show a stripe of solid advisory snows for E IA/N IL.

 

INDY folks and @ BAMWx folks are prob thrilled to see this storm targeting their region.  The past 3-4 years have been dreadful for them down in C IN.  TBH, this is prob the best #sharethewealth storm we have seen to cover members from OK/TX all the way up thru the OHV/S MW since the GHD-1 storm, right?  Maybe I'm missing a storm or two but the amount of real estate this storm will cover with snow is massive.  Glad to see many of us snow starved folks are in the game.  Should be a fun couple of days tracking this large southern stream storm!

 

[Tom]

0z EPS...nice to see a lot of members jumping on the northern energy and increasing a pocket of snow over NW IL/E IA...

[Tom]

Oh, by the way, this storm dumped yet another 14" of snow at Snowbowl up in Flagastaff that brings the season total up to an eye popping 189"!.  Just an incredible snow season for all of the mountains of AZ.  Not only that, but temps have dropped below freezing back in Fountain Hills where I stay (30F).  Wild stuff!

 

[Tom]

Here's the snow cover map from yesterday...looks like mother nature is going to fill in the snow gaps over the S MW/Lower Lakes...

[WinterSquall23]

9 hours ago, Niko said:

It’s a wall of heavy snow rushing in towards S MI.

8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

HRRR with 6-8" around here (with possibly a bit more icing on the cake afterwards)

 

Good stuff.  That should be a headline.  

[Tom]

06z Euro....keeping hopes alive for at least 3" around here and for most of N IL/E IA...

[jaster220]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

06z Euro....keeping hopes alive for at least 3" around here and for most of N IL/E IA...

That actually looks like the Euro has capitulated a bit towards the NAM track. Overnight AFD from DTX was rather pessimistic noting the more suppressed track shown by the 0z Euro. Thus why they chose to hold off on any headline changes. Thanks for posting. Still hopeful for the wetter outcome over here. Sheesh at what it takes to get a proper storm here. Good Luck to you Tom

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I was waiting and hoping for the models to show this development and one of the reasons this storm should have some interesting surprises out your way and MBY.  It's kinda nice to see both the EURO/GFS in the same camp and show a stripe of solid advisory snows for E IA/N IL.

 

INDY folks and @ BAMWx folks are prob thrilled to see this storm targeting their region.  The past 3-4 years have been dreadful for them down in C IN.  TBH, this is prob the best #sharethewealth storm we have seen to cover members from OK/TX all the way up thru the OHV/S MW since the GHD-1 storm, right?  Maybe I'm missing a storm or two but the amount of real estate this storm will cover with snow is massive.  Glad to see many of us snow starved folks are in the game.  Should be a fun couple of days tracking this large southern stream storm!

 

You're slipping there bro. The Feb 2021 storm had the entire state of IN with 8-12" maps. Coverage of that was even larger iirc, and the end of Jan '21 storm that nailed Chicago also covered the N half of Indiana into WOH with a very solid storm on the order of this one. What strikes me is how weak the output is with this GOMEX Low. I'd expect to see the entire swath about 5-6" deeper across the board.