1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[Stacsh]

This will be a real test of the models. Ratios won’t be good.  Warm ground.  Will be interesting to see the results.  

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

This will be a real test of the models. Ratios won’t be good.  Warm ground.  Will be interesting to see the results.  

Ratios will be like today, just the way I like 'em

[Clinton]

0z GEFS

[Stacsh]

13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Ratios will be like today, just the way I like 'em

I just think the snowfall maps are too far south.  

[Clinton]

Just now, Stacsh said:

I just think the snowfall maps are too far south.  

I hope so.  Do you think that because of the lack of cold air?

[Black Hole]

GFS + ens, NAM, and CMC all came in great. ICON was good too. 

On the other hand the UKMET and latest ECMWF (18z) not so great. Hopefully with more high res data tomorrow things become clearer. 

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

GFS Sub-1000mb at h60, and at h72 it now aligns with what the GEM showed 3 days ago 

 

Oddly enough, that track totally reminds me of GHD-1 and is usually THE best track for a Big snow up this way.  Unfortunately, we aren't seeing all the dynamics come into play with this scenario.  I'll be thrilled to score 3"...yesterday's snow is almost gone so I'll be left with bare ground by the time it snows from this system.  I'm ok with it bc this system appears to have enough "umph" that I feel it'll feel more wintry-like for a couple days with intermittent snow showers through Thursday.

[Clinton]

This mornings models look good for KC and mby to receive some accumulating snow.  EAX early map showing 2-5 for mby.  EAX discussion

The day time hours on Tuesday will remain quiet with highs warming
to the upper 30s to around 40 across the area. By the afternoon,
focus will turn to a low situated across the southwest. This low
will dig deep into the southern US before eventually tracking
though southern Missouri and northern Arkansas Tuesday night. As
it moves toward our are it will merge back with broader troughing
swinging in from central Canada. Its looking like there may be a
brief period of some rain/snow mix at the start of precip onset
Tuesday night, but a push of cold air along with boundary layer
cooling will not linger much behind the precip. Snowfall is
expected to be the primary precip type through the event beginning
Tuesday evening and coming to an end by Wednesday. Models
generally agree that this system will track just a bit south of
our region, putting us on the north side of the greatest impacts.
Despite the more southern track of this system, still expecting
souther parts of the area to be near the deformation zone and see
potential for some accumulating snow. Right now, its looking like
area south of I-70 may see amounts of 1-4" while northern parts of
the area may only get a dusting up to 2". Some models continue to
depict potential for development of a heavier band through the
central part of our area late Tuesday night. Confidence has
increased in this scenario, thus, have bumped snow totals a bit
from the previous forecast.

[Clinton]

The 6z GFS and NAM

NAM

[Andie]

Starting the day at 29 this morning at 6am. 
High of 56-7

The cold poured in yesterday.  I was out in it and you could really feel the cold damp air dump into the area.  
Not particularly windy but you feel the heavy cold air literally drop over us.  

[Niko]

NOAA going w/ 4-7" for now. Could be higher than this amount as we get closer to the event.

At roughly
50 hours out, preferred to go with a 10:1 or 11:1. Did not have much
issue with the collaborated QPF. Thus, the current forecast will
read 4 to 7 inches possible.

The coherent absolute vorticity center matters as it
increases confidence the main cold side deformation should stripe
right across the cwa, keeping the midlevel dry slot south of the
state. Thus, thinking a long duration of moderate snow is in store
for Southeast Michigan including Metro Detroit. The low is shown to
deepen steadily upon approach, only really beginning to occlude as
it arrives. NAM thetae progs do show a narrow/thinning trowal axis
lifting northward into a greater chunk of the cwa. The prospects for
legitimate trowal dynamics are important as it should influence how
far northward +4" snow amounts will reach. Difficult to get too
specific with snow amounts yet as the entire system is not quite
within the hires window. The first item that will be monitored in
the model data in subsequent shifts is for the likelihood of
mesoscale snow banding. Low track, trajectories of the system
relative flow, and orientation of the isotherms suggest a good
potential for localized banding particularly south of I69.

[jaster220]

IWX

A strong impulse that will help generate a winter storm will eject
out of the base of the upstream trof and reach the area Wednesday.
The GFS 295K isentropic lift is massive early Wednesday and will
bring fast accumulating snow Wednesday morning into early
Wednesday afternoon.

[jaster220]

19 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA going w/ 4-7" for now. Could be higher than this amount as we get closer to the event.

At roughly
50 hours out, preferred to go with a 10:1 or 11:1. Did not have much
issue with the collaborated QPF. Thus, the current forecast will
read 4 to 7 inches possible.

The coherent absolute vorticity center matters as it
increases confidence the main cold side deformation should stripe
right across the cwa, keeping the midlevel dry slot south of the
state. Thus, thinking a long duration of moderate snow is in store
for Southeast Michigan including Metro Detroit. The low is shown to
deepen steadily upon approach, only really beginning to occlude as
it arrives. NAM thetae progs do show a narrow/thinning trowal axis
lifting northward into a greater chunk of the cwa. The prospects for
legitimate trowal dynamics are important as it should influence how
far northward +4" snow amounts will reach. Difficult to get too
specific with snow amounts yet as the entire system is not quite
within the hires window. The first item that will be monitored in
the model data in subsequent shifts is for the likelihood of
mesoscale snow banding. Low track, trajectories of the system
relative flow, and orientation of the isotherms suggest a good
potential for localized banding particularly south of I69.

Underlined all the good things in their write-up and I like that they are waiting and playing amounts cautiously, unlike "GHD-3" joke storm last winter. As Tom would say "buckle-up for a fun ride" this week.

[Stacsh]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

I hope so.  Do you think that because of the lack of cold air?

Yes.  But was mostly referencing the placement of heavier totals in central Ohio.  Will be closer to southern Michigan and northern Ohio.  I’m not in this storm and doesn’t look like the NW bump is happening.  @jaster220@Niko look to score nicely.  

[Stacsh]

NAM still way north and juiced.  

[Stacsh]

ICON bumped north slightly favoring Detroit as well.  

[Tom]

06z Euro...still SE of the model consensus...

[Bryan1117]

12 hours ago, winterfreak said:

The NAM? What could go wrong???

It nailed our last storm perfectly… it was really the only model that showed Omaha/ Lincoln getting shafted with dry air and mixing issues.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

18z Euro...still SE of the model consensus...

Wiggle room for last-min bump??

[jcwxguy]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

18z Euro...still SE of the model consensus...

 

06z

[tStacsh]

Euro still way south and weak for SMI.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Euro still way south and weak for SMI.  

This thing crapping the bed at the last minute?? Would so be our story lately. IF it does, I give up on "winter" around here, lol

[jaster220]

NOAA keeps me out of the dreaded "MIX"

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Euro still way south and weak for SMI.  

60z was not way south. It was a bit south but reasonable imo

[tStacsh]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

60z was not way south. It was a bit south but reasonable imo

I meant way south in comparison to the heaviest swath of snow relative to other models. 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

I meant way south in comparison to the heaviest swath of snow relative to other models. 

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Thx for maps. Yeah, SE and weaker than GFS/NAM. Would typically say NW is way to go due to lack of cold air alone, but yesterday's event dumping 6" on Cincinnati of all places makes one pause and question what exactly this winter is up to?

[jaster220]

Old news, but DTX also keeping us 32F or lower during the storm looks nice

Preserving this morning's nice afd write-up for posterity:

Textbook coupling of upper level jet streaks over the central United
States will provide classic synoptic support for a winter storm
system from Texas through the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys
Tuesday through Wednesday. The recent trend of model data (ECMWF,
GFS, NAM, RDPS, and UKMET), different from a couple of days ago, is
to now preserve or harbor the absolute vorticity center as it tracks
to far Southeast Michigan or western Lake Erie basin at hour 72.
Based on the setup, this is to be expected as the models are
advertising a legit low reflection in the H3 mass fields collocated
with coherent cyclonic circulation through the depth of the
troposphere. The coherent absolute vorticity center matters as it
increases confidence the main cold side deformation should stripe
right across the cwa, keeping the midlevel dry slot south of the
state. Thus, thinking a long duration of moderate snow is in store
for Southeast Michigan including Metro Detroit. The low is shown to
deepen steadily upon approach, only really beginning to occlude as
it arrives. NAM thetae progs do show a narrow/thinning trowal axis
lifting northward into a greater chunk of the cwa. The prospects for
legitimate trowal dynamics are important as it should influence how
far northward +4" snow amounts will reach. Difficult to get too
specific with snow amounts yet as the entire system is not quite
within the hires window. The first item that will be monitored in
the model data in subsequent shifts is for the likelihood of
mesoscale snow banding. Low track, trajectories of the system
relative flow, and orientation of the isotherms suggest a good
potential for localized banding particularly south of I69. Duration
at any one location will be key both for the magnitude of the higher
amounts and also with how compact/diffuse the snowfall gradient will
be along the northern edge here in Michigan. The second item will be
the refinement of snow ratios as we get closer to the event.
Hopefully an increase in predictability on timing of frontal
surfaces aloft and the resultant intersection of the UVVs/lift
through the DGZ will provide some clarity on snow ratios. At roughly
50 hours out, preferred to go with a 10:1 or 11:1. Did not have much
issue with the collaborated QPF. Thus, the current forecast will
read 4 to 7 inches possible south of I 69 with 2 to 4 inches to the
north of I 69. Given the time horizon, some 50 hours out, will not
be issuing a Winter Storm Watch with this package.

[jaster220]

Hvy snow expanded into Wed Night. Would think a Watch is coming..

[OKwx2k4]

Two simultaneous problems would make this storm interesting...

1) Underestimating saturation in lower levels

2) Underestimating the trend to be colder that modeled at various times this year on the southern-end. 

That said, 6-10 inches is still looking like a good call for my area with everything I have looked at. Somewhere just to my north and east is going to get a footer in. I know it. I'm guessing a real number at around 8.5 inches.

[tStacsh]

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hvy snow expanded into Wed Night. Would think a Watch is coming..

Looking good for your area

[Iceresistance]

I'm under the Winter Storm Warning for 3-6 inches of snow (locally higher)!

[jaster220]

DTX pm afd. As anticipated, at least a few counties go to Watch.

The region remains on the northern periphery of this heavier swath
of snow, but southern portions of the forecast area definitely
remain within an area that will likely experience some enhanced
banding/FGEN as a TROWAL feature arcs back around the cyclonic
circulation of the low. Will issue a Winter Storm Watch with this
forecast package for Lenawee/Monroe/Wayne counties as consistency in
model solutions suggest there is at least a 50/50 chance of around
7 inches of snow over far southeast lower Michigan from parts of
Wednesday morning into the evening as heavier snow shifts off to the
east.

[Black Hole]

Looks like 2-5" is the best bet for my house. I will probably get trapped at the office lol 

[jaster220]

It's official

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
350 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

MIZ076-082-083-240900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
350 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The onset of snow appears as if it will
  come mainly after the morning commute so the biggest travel
  impacts will occur as conditions deteriorate steadily from late
  morning into the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

[MIKEKC]

Winter weather advisory for KC, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. (NAM would suggest the higher amounts)

Let's go SNOW!

This will kick start our swing back into a beautiful winter's end!!!! I see you artic air...

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Winter weather advisory for KC, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. (NAM would suggest the higher amounts)

Let's go SNOW!

This will kick start our swing back into a beautiful winter's end!!!! I see you artic air...

Yep, winter's real return starts with storm #1....and then??

DTX

At least one, and quite possibly two systems will track along the
southern periphery of this arctic airmass and bring the potential
for meaningful snow to the area from late this weekend into early
next week. At the same time, colder conditions will evolve with
highs in the 30s late this week transitioning to the 20s into the
end of the forecast period and quite possibly colder than that by
next week.

[ATW]

6 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Winter weather advisory for KC, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. (NAM would suggest the higher amounts)

Let's go SNOW!

This will kick start our swing back into a beautiful winter's end!!!! I see you artic air...

I’m looking at a bit more here but am most interested in what the temp will do. 

[jaster220]

GRR

The system has fairly strong lift through a deep layer per BUFKIT
overviews. The lift stretches through and above the DGZ so we
should see good snowfall rates during the time frame of the snow.
The best snow should occur during the day on Wednesday with the
evening commute likely being poor for both the I-96 and I-94
corridors. We will be headed towards Winter Weather Advisories at
some point in the near future for southern portions of our
forecast area (I-96 to the south). Right now we think high end
advisory snow 5-6 inches is likely in Calhoun, Jackson and
portions of Ingham Counties. Not out of the realm of possibilities
though if a trend to the west develops that we would need Warnings
in South Central portions of the state. Stay tuned to see how this
evolves.

(then I peek at Marshall's grid-cast icons and it shows no snow)